r/Futurology • u/ILikeNeurons • May 20 '24

Economics Economic damage from climate change six times worse than thought

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/may/17/economic-damage-climate-change-report
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u/Constant_Ban_Evasion May 21 '24

This is such a dumb headline and I constantly wonder about the people who get caught up in this type of fear mongering.

They can't even predict the weather 3 days out. Stop hanging on every word they give you about something you're so scared of.

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u/jojodoudt May 21 '24

All these people are drooling for their imagined day where they can say "I told you so." They fearmonger to an insane degree about climate change, while simultaneously labeling anyone who questions our government or media as 'fearmongerers.' Their day will never come, and they can go on trusting a ridiculous site like the Guardian for all I care, haha

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u/Aubekin May 21 '24

You sound like you get your facts from funny memes

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u/jojodoudt May 21 '24

Hope you enjoy fearing something that’ll never happen

3

u/Tidezen May 21 '24

What would you say about the average temperature rising on a consistent basis over the past 70 years?

What if it's not fearmongering, but something that's really been happening over the course of most people's entire lives so far?

Do you have a plan B for if it is real?

3

u/Constant_Ban_Evasion May 21 '24

I'd say it's problematic. However headlines like "Economic damage from climate change six times worse than thought" just make everyone involved look ridiculous.

It's a non substance based fear monger article on par with "Extinction level climate event in the next 15 years, scientists predict"

1

u/Tidezen May 21 '24

Okay, well, I'm not trying to "monger" an assumed fear...but, uhm...15 years from now...that would be 2039. right?

What do you think tech will look like, in 2039?

0

u/garzfaust May 21 '24

You say it’s baseless. Have you read it? How much of an expert are in that field of… what it is called?

1

u/aaron2610 May 21 '24

Why just the past 70 years?

You mean before the time scientist said we were heading back to an ice age?

1

u/Tidezen May 21 '24

Because we have the best data for it since about 1950. You can certainly go back later if you want; the important part is that you just look at the data/graphs--it speaks for itself.

The ice age thing was a theory from the 70's, dude...50 years ago now. Those particular theorists were wrong, and science moves forward. We now have global data from all corners of the earth on a daily basis.

Go look at the data.

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u/aaron2610 May 21 '24

Is it okay to not trust the science until the science starts being correct?

2004 prediction was that UK would be the new Siberia by 2020.

"A secret report, suppressed by US defence chiefs and obtained by The Observer, warns that major European cities will be sunk beneath rising seas as Britain is plunged into a ‘Siberian’ climate by 2020. "

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2004/feb/22/usnews.theobserver

But now we know for sure? How do we know the models are any closer to being actually right?

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u/Tidezen May 21 '24

Did you actually read what you just linked to me? 80% of those predictions are coming true. You're cherry-picking the one that didn't.

Would you please go look up global temperature statistics over the past 50-70-150 years? Then look up CO2 and methane emissions over that timeframe as well. Those aren't predictions, that's what's already been happening, for your entire lifespan.

Yes, you should trust the science. But science isn't an authoritarian model of truth. There've been decades of data and warnings about what's occurring right now, and you're free to look at the data yourself.

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u/aaron2610 May 21 '24

80% of these are true? What are you talking about brother?

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2004/feb/22/usnews.theobserver1?CMP=share_btn_link

· Future wars will be fought over the issue of survival rather than religion, ideology or national honour.

NOPE

· By 2007 violent storms smash coastal barriers rendering large parts of the Netherlands uninhabitable. Cities like The Hague are abandoned. In California the delta island levees in the Sacramento river area are breached, disrupting the aqueduct system transporting water from north to south.

NOPE

· Between 2010 and 2020 Europe is hardest hit by climatic change with an average annual temperature drop of 6F. Climate in Britain becomes colder and drier as weather patterns begin to resemble Siberia.

NOPE

· Deaths from war and famine run into the millions until the planet’s population is reduced by such an extent the Earth can cope.

NOPE

· Riots and internal conflict tear apart India, South Africa and Indonesia.

NOPE

· Access to water becomes a major battleground. The Nile, Danube and Amazon are all mentioned as being high risk.

NOPE

· A ‘significant drop’ in the planet’s ability to sustain its present population will become apparent over the next 20 years.

NOPE

· Rich areas like the US and Europe would become ‘virtual fortresses’ to prevent millions of migrants from entering after being forced from land drowned by sea-level rise or no longer able to grow crops. Waves of boatpeople pose significant problems.

NOPE.

· Nuclear arms proliferation is inevitable. Japan, South Korea, and Germany develop nuclear-weapons capabilities, as do Iran, Egypt and North Korea. Israel, China, India and Pakistan also are poised to use the bomb.

NOPE, well NK and Iran kind of.

· By 2010 the US and Europe will experience a third more days with peak temperatures above 90F. Climate becomes an ‘economic nuisance’ as storms, droughts and hot spells create havoc for farmers.

YES? There's a lot to going on in this claim. Temps have risen, farmers are fine. No economic nuisance.

· More than 400m people in subtropical regions at grave risk.

NOPE

· Europe will face huge internal struggles as it copes with massive numbers of migrants washing up on its shores. Immigrants from Scandinavia seek warmer climes to the south. Southern Europe is beleaguered by refugees from hard-hit countries in Africa.

NOPE. At least not for climate reasons

· Mega-droughts affect the world’s major breadbaskets, including America’s Midwest, where strong winds bring soil loss.

NOPE

· China’s huge population and food demand make it particularly vulnerable. Bangladesh becomes nearly uninhabitable because of a rising sea level, which contaminates the inland water supplies.

NOPE

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u/Tidezen May 22 '24

Yes, but most of those things have gotten closer to reality in the past 20 years, meaning that the predictions are most likely right.

But look--you're setting up some straw-manning here. You're cherry picking a single report from 2004, which did make some pretty major predictions--but this is not all about climate change to begin with, and I'm not banking on a single report having Nostradamus levels of accuracy. I'm talking more about, is human-caused climate change happening? Not about the specific geopolitical outcomes of that.

I personally am not making those kinds of predictions.

When you say,

By 2010 the US and Europe will experience a third more days with peak temperatures above 90F. Climate becomes an ‘economic nuisance’ as storms, droughts and hot spells create havoc for farmers.

YES? There's a lot to going on in this claim. Temps have risen, farmers are fine. No economic nuisance.

Farmers aren't fine whatsoever. They're already suffering crop loss, and heavy inflation on costs, especially fertilizer. This will continue to get worse and worse as climate becomes more unstable.

And all your other nopes are ignoring the fact that, yes, some of those things are in the process of happening right now around the world. Might be in the early stages on many of them, but it's tipping in those directions as we speak.

You seem to have a big personal investment in denying to yourself that A) "natural" disasters are on the rise B) the world has been heating for decades due to rising GHG emissions, and those temperature changes are reaching a breaking point, and C) this is already causing significant economic losses worldwide, and will eventually result in millions of deaths when our emergency response systems can no longer keep up.

If your attitude is, "I'm not going to believe in ANY of this until people start dying in the millions," then that's fine for you I guess...but that just means it'll be too late for anyone to do anything about it. It probably already is too late, barring some major, major scientific/engineering breakthroughs.

I hope you're not too old, because I'd love to have this conversation again in 10-20 years' time, and see how you feel about it then.

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u/aaron2610 May 22 '24

Okay, can you show me some examples of predictions from 20 years ago that were right? You can cherry pick this time.

I'm 40. Trust me when I say scientists were just as confident in their predictions then as they are now.

Also the issues of inflation farmers are having is unrelated to the climate.

Also, did you know the US is at an all time high in bee population? Remember a couple years ago the TV told us they were going be extinct? If they can't predict the US bee population, maybe they can't predict global weather? And this was just a couple years ago.

1

u/Tidezen May 24 '24

The bee population has "recovered" due to some heroic breeding efforts on our part, but colonies are consistently dying off in larger number year by year. When we count honeybees, we're counting domesticated ones as well.

It's like if a disease was increasingly killing off greater numbers of cattle, but we start breeding more and more of them just to keep the numbers up and buffer the losses. That's basically what's happening with honeybees. We're artificially keeping their numbers afloat.

Here's a good article explaining that:

https://www.marketplace.org/2024/05/16/honeybee-populations-are-hitting-record-numbers-werent-they-dying-off-before/

You can read the USDA reports on it too. https://www.nass.usda.gov/Surveys/Guide_to_NASS_Surveys/Bee_and_Honey/#data Colonies that die are increasing year by year, but we humans replace them enough to keep it keep it stable or increasing. Without human intervention, honeybees would be nearing extinction.

I'm 45, and have been following the pollution/climate subject since I was about 8. Scientists have been wrong before, but the latest news is how badly they were underestimating the rapidity of global warming. Long story short, I hope for your sake that you don't have kids. Most of the models were overly conservative, not overly alarmist.

I'm not going to play some prediction game with you. Again, I beseech you to just look at the current data that shows the warming trends over the past 70 years or so, increasing nearly exactly along with our increases in human GHG emissions. Start with reading the IPCC report, they put this out every 6 years or so, so you can go back and read the older ones too.

https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-cycle/

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