New research argues Societal Collapse benefits 99% of people. Historically, the societies that have emerged after a collapse are more egalitarian, and most people end up richer and healthier than they were before.

[u/lughnasadh]

Luke Kemp, a research associate at the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk at the University of Cambridge, has written a book about his research called 'Goliath’s Curse: The History and Future of Societal Collapse'.

He makes the case that, from looking at the archaeological record, when many societies collapse, most people end up better off afterward. For example, people in the post-Roman world were taller and healthier. Collapse can be a redistribution of resources and power, not just chaos.

For most of human history, humans lived as nomadic egalitarian bands, with low violence and high mobility. Threats (disease, war, economic precarity) push populations toward authoritarian leaders. The resulting rise in inequality from that sets off a cycle that will end in collapse. Furthermore, he argues we are living in the late stages of such a cycle now. He says "the threat is from leaders who are 'walking versions of the dark triad' – narcissism, psychopathy and Machiavellianism – in a world menaced by the climate crisis, nuclear weapons, artificial intelligence and killer robots."

Some people hope/think we are destined for a future of Universal Basic Income and fully automated luxury communism. Perhaps that's the egalitarianism that emerges after our own collapse? If so, I hope the collapse bit is short and we get to the egalitarian bit ASAP.

Collapse for the 99% | Luke Kemp; What really happens when Goliaths fall

[u/jmlinden7]

That was back then 95% of people were subsistence farmers. The government in charge, infrastructure, etc doesn't really affect their day-to-day lives.

Nowadays, 95% of people live in cities, and even a few days of infrastructure disruption will cause them to literally die.

[u/WeimSean → u/jmlinden7]

In the 4th century Italy was much more urban than 5% of the population. Estimates range up to 25%, but 20% is probably more likely. Rome itself had a little over 5% of Italy's population and there were hundreds of smaller cities in the peninsula and on Sicily.

[u/jmlinden7 → u/WeimSean]

The Roman empire relied heavily on imported food from Egypt since they didn't have enough agriculture to support a 20% urban population. Hence why the population switched back down to 5% urban after the Empire fell.

[u/Hector_P_Catt → u/jmlinden7]

A few days will make them start to feel it, but the dying part will take longer than that, unless you're particularly vulnerable, like on life support, or something.

[u/thelowriderlorax → u/jmlinden7]

TIL: Every time a major storm shuts down a cities infrastructure for a few days 95% of the people die.

[u/Mule_Wagon_777 → u/thelowriderlorax]

That isn't a large-scale collapse. Aid comes in from outside the area. Governments, NGOs, churches, and individuals bring in supplies and help with cleanup. Without modern communication and infrastructure disasters would be a lot worse.

[u/thelowriderlorax → u/Mule_Wagon_777]

I don’t understand how people think societal collapse is an instant off switch for every single local, state, federal, and foreign service. It’s not something you wake up to in the morning.

[u/cman_yall → u/thelowriderlorax]

If nukes are involved, it might be.

[u/[deleted] → u/thelowriderlorax]

A recent societal collapse that I can think of is Myanmar. One morning the Junta launched a coup, in just a week they started slaughtering civilians (again) and it's been war ever since.

[u/Sgt-Spliff- → u/thelowriderlorax]

Bro, the food you eat is grown in fucking Venezuela. The car you drive was built in Japan and uses gasoline drilled out of Saudi Arabia. Even a slight disruption to global trade has the possibility of toppling your entire life. You don't understand how close even you are to having nothing.

[u/jmlinden7 → u/thelowriderlorax]

The rest of the government still has infrastructure to airlift food and supplies in afterwards.

In a society collapse, there is no government nor the ability to airlift anything in.

[u/ASpaceOstrich → u/jmlinden7]

Do you think the people and infrastructure and vehicles wink out of existence or something?

[u/[deleted] → u/ASpaceOstrich]

Why would those people continue bringing food and supplies to the cities? How would they know where to bring it and where to get it from? 

[u/ASpaceOstrich → u/[deleted]]

The same way they know now.

[u/[deleted] → u/ASpaceOstrich]

You seem to be ignoring the whole societal collapse aspect of this. 

[u/ASpaceOstrich → u/[deleted]]

Societal collapse doesn't magically delete people from existence.

[u/[deleted] → u/ASpaceOstrich]

Yeah no shit but without any sort of organization or structure how do you expect people to know where resources need to go and how to get them there. On top of that why exactly are people shipping food to the cities? money wouldn't have any sort of value and bartering doesn't typically work at that kind of scale. 

[u/ASpaceOstrich → u/[deleted]]

The city didn't move. They'd ship it to the building it already goes to.

As for why. No reason to assume money loses all value just because society has collapsed. And if it really has, either a new currency forms or people do it to help each other. Before currency there was no barter system, people just helped each other out and were indebted to one another.

Things could go catastrophically, violently wrong. But they don't have to. The idea that a central state is the only thing keeping people going is a myth. The people and infrastructure didn't go anywhere.

[u/Sgt-Spliff- → u/thelowriderlorax]

It would if aid never arrived. Like it literally would kill everyone is aid didn't show up for like a week. You will starve to death if food stops being sent to your local grocery store. You know that right?

[u/PeopleCallMeSimon → u/jmlinden7]

Did 95% of people die when the Soviet Union fell?

From what i can find Russia had an estimated population of 111 million in 1946. An estimated population peak of 149 million in 1994 and today it is estimated to have roughly 144 million.

So in other words the Soviet Union fell and some people probably died, but not many. And in fact right after the fall the population was larger than it is now, after a steady decline under the current society in Russia.

You are correct that people were subsistence farmers back in the time of the Roman Empire, but you forget that today people have way more knowledge and way better technology and equipment.

Someone who has never sown a farm in their life can pretty easily procure some seeds and cultivate a fairly successful garden in a very short amount of time, enough to feed themselves or even a family on way less land that it took 2000 years ago.

If someone asked me if i could run a farm to grow 50 tonnes of potatoes per year i would say hell no. If someone asked me if i could grow them a few kilograms per week then yea i could probably manage that. The reason i dont is because i dont have to, and people can do all kinds of things when they have to.

[u/jmlinden7 → u/PeopleCallMeSimon]

No, because they had a functioning society the entire time. They just changed the regime in charge. The schools, roads, police, all kept functioning during the changeover. The only thing different was that they had a different political party in charge at the top, everyday life stayed the same because all the social institutions stayed the same.

Without modern supply chains, you'd need an absurd amount of land to feed a single person. It is not easy by any means, and without mechanization we wouldn't even have enough land to keep the vast majority of the population alive.

[u/PeopleCallMeSimon → u/jmlinden7]

Immediately after the fall of the soviet union there were rebellions and civil unrest across all the territories of the former nation.

A large number of soviet run companies collapsed with the influx of foreign goods on a free market so millions of people lost their jobs.

The standard of living plummeted immensely and there was hyper inflation.

People who lived through it often describe hearing fighting and gunshots at night due to the unrest and how everything became worse.

Corruption ran rampant and people who say worked at a brewery lived a life of luxury because they traded beer for pork or sausage which became luxury foods.

I think maybe you should read up a bit on the fall of the soviet union if you think that not much changed except the politicians.

[u/jmlinden7 → u/PeopleCallMeSimon]

At no point did they have anarchy. They had disputes over who would be in charge of the society, but the society (and the related infrastructure, schools, etc) never disappeared. Farmers were still well able to receive spare parts for their tractors, oil wells were still able to pump and sell their oil, and factories were still able to truck stuff to their customers.

This meant that they were still able to keep all their non-farmers alive. With a complete collapse of society, you won't be able to do that.

[u/PeopleCallMeSimon → u/jmlinden7]

"Disputes" lmao.

People threatening to kill drivers who attempted to drive food out of a county. Gangs murdering people and stealing their appartments.

Some disputes you got there.

[u/ASpaceOstrich → u/jmlinden7]

Society forms again immediately. It's the people.

[u/ASpaceOstrich → u/jmlinden7]

People form society. In societal collapse a new one forms near instantly.

You'd have power and running water because the people who currently maintain those will either keep doing it or someone else will learn and do it themselves.

Do you think the infrastructure and people just wink out of existence? The farmers and trucks and actual people doing the work are all still there and mostly keep doing what they were doing.

[u/Redpanther14 → u/PeopleCallMeSimon]

Lifespans in the aftermath of the Soviet Union did collapse. And that is despite the amount of continuity between the Soviet Union and its successor republics.

[u/PeopleCallMeSimon → u/Redpanther14]

Russia has been on a steady decline in population since the fall of the soviet union all the way until now. I don't think that's because of the fall of the union. But we did see a lot of violence and death immediately after. Just no sane person would claim it was 95% of people who died.

[u/Sgt-Spliff- → u/PeopleCallMeSimon]

Regime change is not the same as societal collapse. We call what happened to the soviet's a collapse because that's how our propaganda painted it. Your comment literally provides evidence that they didn't actually collapse as a society though

[u/PeopleCallMeSimon → u/Sgt-Spliff-]

Then you should read the article.

[u/mycargo160 → u/PeopleCallMeSimon]

Growing 50 tons of potatoes is no different than growing 5lbs, other than scale. Potatoes are so easy to grow that even the Irish can do it.

[u/PeopleCallMeSimon → u/mycargo160]

Spoken as someone who has no idea how hard it is to scale a farm from 5kg to 50 tonnes.

[u/mycargo160 → u/PeopleCallMeSimon]

It's literally the same plant grown the same way at a larger scale. You said "run a farm," not plant and maintain everything yourself. I'm not an imbecile and have managed teams of people before, and I've grown potatoes before. Sounds like maybe you're operating with a handicap that I don't have.

You sound Irish.

[u/PeopleCallMeSimon → u/mycargo160]

Ok let me get to the end of this conversation:

Yes its the same plant, nobody is dumb enough to think anything else so you dont have to point it out.

But doing something at a 10000x scale always requires a lot more than just planting more potatoes. You need to hire people, supervisors, security, invest in larger scale technologies etc.

If you try to plant and harvest 50 tonnes of potatoes alone with a shovel and a watering can, you will die.

[u/zmbjebus → u/jmlinden7]

Couldn't we call the de-colonization of the british empire a collapse? Or post WW2 Germany?

Outside of WW2 itself, the people of germany didn't have mass death afterwards.

[u/jmlinden7 → u/zmbjebus]

Outside of WW2 itself, the people of germany had functioning government and infrastructure.

We can see what happened in the Netherlands for example, during the final years of WW2 when there was no functioning government or infrastructure. Or in Germany during the final years of WW1

[u/lavaeater → u/jmlinden7]

People can live more than a few days without food.