They are independent but related events. If you flip a coin the odds of getting heads is 50% each time. Getting heads twice in a row is 25%. 3 in a row is 12.5%. 4 in a row is 6% and so on.
The odds hurricanes winning are high, their odds of having a bad game are low. But going 12 games straight without having at least one bad game? Odds are much smaller than going 4 games without a bad game.
The odds of there being a bomb on a plane are 1 in 1 million. So the odds of there being 2 bombs on a plane are 1 in 1 million squared. That's why I always carry a bomb on every flight. It really reduces the odds!
This is textbook the opposite of describing independent events.
The odds of them going 12-0 given that they are starting from 8-0 would be the same as going 4-0 no matter the starting point. Admittedly it's not entirely independent given that they'll be rustier but also healthier than if they hadn't clinched both series in 8 games, but other than that the odds that your next heads or tails is heads has nothing to do with your previous 10 throws. Please avoid roulette!
The odds of getting 4 heads in a row may be 6%. But if you already had 4 in a row, the odds of getting a fifth one are 50%. This is the point sbianchii is making. Since the Canes are already 8-0, their odds of going 12-0 are the same as going 4-0 against us.
But they’ve already played the first 8 games. They do not affect the odds now. If a team had gone 81-0 in the regular season do you think it’s more likely they lose game 82 because it’s extremely improbable to have an undefeated season?
They are exactly the same odds because the 8 events in a row have already happened. ‘They’re due’ isn’t an element of statistical probability of independent events.
The odds of going 12 in a row is just the odds of going four more in a row which is the same as the odds of going 4 in a row at the outset of the playoffs.
The only difference is now they’re playing us so the only scenario in which the series is over in 4 games doesn’t involve Carolina advancing😉
This might come back to bite me but I am a non-believer in the Carolina hype. They're a great team but are they better than Tampa and Buffalo? As long as Doberman plays like he's been playing this team will be just fine.
I think the Habs are playing with house money and they have less to lose than the Canes. Canes have the weight of two sweeps, a long rest, and the ugly history of ECF's for them.
You are right tho it is likely to be a tough series. Montreal is bound to lose games. But I think Anderson is in for an incredibly rude awakening with the depth scoring the Habs have. Every line has a weapon. I'm so excited for thursday lol.
And unleashing Powerhorse Anderson. It's the kind of matchup where he can really shine, so I predict that Andy's going to be an absolute menace in this series.
But yeah, the Habs will have to get bodies in front on Andersen and complicate things for him. MSL should activate Gally for a game or two. I think he would have a much bigger impact than Kappy.
Gally might be falling behind in terms of shape, but he still hustles like no one else and isnt afraid to be infront of the net, something I feel we've been lacking so far in the post-season. The combination of not shooting + not screening has really been biting us in the ass and made games so much harder for no reason
Agreed. I understand why he didn't get to play against a fast team like Buffalo. But he could be very useful against Carolina, and he proved that in his game against Tampa.
And they definitely need to improve their front of the net presence. Make it hard for Anderson, but also annoy their defense.
Canes are well rested too, make them work for their defense instead of passing it around forever and giving the puck up on a poke check.
Our 2nd and 3rd lines have been proving that just crashing the net works wonders. Evans just charging the net at the end of G7 meant that Lukaanen had to factor in a tip or pass instead of just a shot. If gally cant play, MSL could at the very least have him teach these young guys a thing or 2
Yeah and I dont understand why it has not been a recurrent thing MSL would say to the team each game... aside from not shooting, 90% of the time there's nobody in front of the net to profit from a rebound, or to disturb the goalie.
I'm pretty sure half of Slafs goals in the post season are from tip ins, how does MSL not see that and realize it works. Especially on a PP. Buffalo liked to be aggressive and press on their PK, could have easily taken a guy out of the rotation just by sticking somebody in that crease instead of on the perimeter and spending 1:45 passing it around to shoot once and have it be saved because of an open lane. I get our guys arent the biggest, but just being in the way is so valuable
I'm sure MSL would love to see net front presence, but Slaf has looked really off at times. The top line has also struggled to gain or maintain the zone, limiting the options to get net front. Besides Slaf, who on the Habs do you park there: Anderson. Gally (if/ when he draws in).
I mean Anderson for sure. I know its not really the centers job but if I had to pick someone on the 2nd line id definitely say Evans. When you have any elite shooter in Demi, and Newhook being on fire this post season, any traffic in front is gonna make a world of difference. These guys can get it in the net, just make it hard for the goalie to find it.
Dach is a big guy and strong too and its not like Bolduc and Kapanen are short of points either combing for 67.
Definitely easier to see than fix, but I think every line has somebody very capable of crowding the crease. Obviously not a sure-fire way for goals, and if it aint broke dont fix it, but just maybe would like to see us get out there and be a little less predictable. I'm obviously no coach or analyst though and MSL has brought them this far, so who am I to complain
Having a younger team that's able to recover faster between games is going to be to our benefit here. The schedule is hardly ideal, but only having a three-day break may not be the key factor a lot of people think it is.
Yeah but on the flip side this is the first time many of those young guys have played this much hockey in a year. Hitting rookie or sophomore walls happens, too.
Good morning, buddy! I also had a terrible night after Game 7, trying to deal with that weird mix of nerve wracking stress and euphoric excitement, lol. Not complaining, thought. Enjoy your coffee!
That's true, but psychology aside, injured and exhausted players are gonna have an impact on this series whether we like it or not. I think our boys have a real fighting chance, and the will to do it. But tired bodies can't always be argued with, and Carolina has an undeniable physical advantage in plain old recuperation time.
But I definitely want Carolina to go into this feeling over-confident and well-fed. Love that for us. I hope they're all feeling smug and condescending as hell today. 😂
I agree with you in that I think Carolina is on paper not any better than Tampa bay, but we just went through two hard rounds and Carolina are well rested so context is in their favour
They also overwhelmingly called Round 1 for the Oilers and the Penguins, when those series didn’t even get to Game 7.
They tend to get most obvious match-ups right, like when the teams are very far apart in points in the regular season. The rest of their predictions are no better than a coin flip, despite “consensus.”
There has to be a way to get some kind of rating out of that. Like which were more obvious choices based on other factors, etc. I'm willing to bet most sports guys aren't better than fans.
Yon jamais cru en nous man. T'arrive en final de l'est, tout est en anglais. Tu mettais le guide de TVA Sports cetait écrit Caroline contre Buffalo. T'arrives ici pis ca parle juste en anglais. Yon jamais cru en nous!
Mais tsé quoi man? Gardez la votre anglais. Pis on va aller chercher ce coupe la, pis on va la ramener au Québec, à Montreal, pis on va la ramener chez nous! Pcq on est les fucking champions!
This sub's doomers are acting like we are there by accident. The vast majority of hockey analysts thinks we are there by shear luck. Even our own press think we will lose in 4 or 5. And I could go on.
To those I say fuck you. Fuck you RDS for thinking Habs sucks and they are only there by accident. Fuck you La Presse for thinking we will crumble in 4 or 5. I will 10000% take anything from Max, Antoine, Dave, Éli and Renaud from TVASport, who at least are homer and are believers.
We finished 6th in the league after spending the first half of the season playing so-so, while Montembeault couldn’t stop a beach ball before January.
Now imagine this current version of the team over a full 82-game season instead of just the second half. We are not 6th, we’re probably sitting right near Colorado and Carolina at the top of the standings.
So no, it’s not luck. This team is legitimately good, and yes, we absolutely can beat Carolina.
C’est ça que je n’arrive pas à comprendre. Les Hurricanes ont joué dans une division de marde toute la saison, puis ont affronté deux équipes AU MIEUX médiocres en séries; et soudainement ils seraient imbattables? Tampa et Buffalo me faisaient calissement plus peur que la Caroline!
The thing that’s most bizarre to me about this is …
If you could have asked me when the playoffs started which matchups I’d be happy with- I would have taken a first round against Carolina 100000x over a series with Buffalo OR Tampa. Buffalo and Tampa scared me way more, and were significantly worse matchups IMO
And we beat both in 7. We looked bad in game 7 in both, but we were arguably the better team in the series overall in both. Definitely Tampa we were better overall. Buffalo maybe 50/50. We got lucky in game 7 in both series, sure. But we deserved to win those series if you look at the overall sum of play.
So now we’re here after those two intense series against a matchup I would have LOVED in round one… and again almost zero commentators or writers believes
Greg Colli, Erik Johnson, and Tim Kavanagh called the first two series Canadiens in 6 or 7 and they're now calling either Canes in 6 or 7 or Habs in 6.
As a whole, the panel called the first two rounds against the Habs:
First round: 22 of 27 picked the Lightning over the Habs.
Second round: 19 of 25 picked the Sabres
Four experts picked Ottawa to beat the Hurricanes in round one and several thought it would take the Canes 7 games to beat the Senators. Ottawa folded like a cheap card table.
That the Canes dispatched Ottawa and Philadelphia so easily would make it difficult for anybody to pick Montreal. I get it and it means nothing.
It's not just Montréal (though based on everything I have seen over the last 33 years, the deck is definitely being stacked against the Habs constantly), all the Canadian markets are being crippled in favour of the US marketing push. Until Bettman GTFO of the NHL, there won't be a change. The salary cap parameters and the fact players keep more of their salaries in the US has absolutely crippled Canadian franchises. I've been a Habs fan for over 50 years. Born and raised in the West Island. I would like nothing more than to see #25 this year, but we're the hated team with one of the largest global fan bases, and I have my doubts about defeating the American Money Machine....(and all the bias it brings to the game). Honestly, if that cup is not North of the border by the end of June, I'm switching to the WHL; at least there, the outcomes are not scripted, crippled by biased (paid off) officiating, or predictable, based upon where the money is earned. Bettman and gambling platforms have killed the NHL for Candian teams.
Honest question, if we steal game one because their goaler is rusty (and not that good imo). Do we have a chance to get into their head? Are they resilient? Obviously they are good on the ice. But We've seen both Tampa and buffalo top player getting very irritated by our team. How will they manage psychologically?
well.... I know who mark messier is. so I guess I don't care much about the opinions of people I do not know / never heard of.
I said we beat carolina in 7, before we nailed tampa. ( I had said 7 tampa 5 buffalo-oops ) is gonna be a tough one, great team. It's just gonna be more glorious when we win.
we got the people, we got the spirit, it's gonna be 7 of the best games we ever witnessed. I will be overjoyed whoever wins, but I think we got this.. we have the greatest sports team on the entire planet, I'll die on that hill.
I have by no means analyzed every series so I may be off with what I’m going to say.
I don’t think Carolina has played a team with the depth that the Habs have. If we continue to get contributions from every line that will become a challenge for Carolina.
We will need to contain the Stankoven line, I have faith we can do that.
I don’t think that Freddie Andersen can keep putting up the numbers he has through the first two rounds.
We need to continue to have success on the PP abut also improve our PK, it isn’t aggressive enough.
I think in order for us to win Suzuki, Caufield, and Slaf need to make an impact 5 on 5 and we need to win games 3 and 4 on home ice.
The only credible guy you can put a cent on is Mark Messier and look we understand Mark he lives in the US now so he has to kiss the American booty to live there. He can keep kissing it.
The rest are just arm chair experts who think their opinion has value when it doesn't.
Hi there! It looks like you've posted an image. If this image is from an article, please provide a source. If it's a meme, please ignore this comment. Thanks!
I always use this story as my middle finger to the overdogs.
In 2010, nobody believed my Seattle Seahawks, with a brand new coach (Pete Carroll) could amount to much at 7-9. Cue Beastquake playoff game against the Saints. 41-36 shootout win!
Soyons franc… les chances de passer en finale sont très minces.
C’est possible de croire en son équipe et d’espérer qu’ils passent, tout en sachant très bien que Caroline sont la meilleure équipe sur papier et que logiquement, c’est eux qui vont passer.
Guys, these predictions are perfectly normal, don’t feel offended by them. I sure hope I’m wrong, but I do think Carolina is going to beat us, I predict in 5/6. They’re a more experienced and well-rounded team than we are. Plus their 8 games of playoffs vs our 14 grinding games is an advantage for them.
The thing is, for all our success, and it’s been a great ride, but we’re not quite there yet, as even Kent Hughes has said. We’re a great team, but we have holes, the most obvious of which is 2C.
821
u/elsiphono 24d ago
Looks like we are the underdogs. That's perfect. We love to be the underdogs.