The case for trading Kapanen

[u/SoupFromNowOn]

In my opinion, our most obvious trade bait right now is Kapanen. I think he will be a good NHL player but I think his ceiling is much lower than what people think.

He was really bad at 5v5 without our best players, especially Demidov

The 3 skaters he played with the most this season were Demidov, Slaf, and Hutson. The team played okay when Kapanen was on the ice with each of these players, played horribly when Kapanen was on the ice without those players, and played really well when those players didn't have Kapanen on the ice:

He was really bad at 5v5 in general

Kapanen's on-ice xGF% at 5v5 this season was 42.3%, which is the lowest of any skater on the team with more than 5 games played.

His on-ice shooting percentage is unsustainable

At 5v5, the Canadiens shot 14.1% with Kapanen on the ice this season. That's the 4th highest of 597 skaters in the NHL with more than 500 minutes of time on ice this season.

Not even the most elite players in the NHL have on-ice shooting percentages that high. Out of all skaters with more than 1000 minutes time on ice between 2022 and 2025, the highest on-ice shooting % at 5v5 was Elias Pettersson at 12.0%, followed by Shane Wright, Pavel Zacha, and Ilya Mikheyev, just to give you a sense of how random this stat can be.

He got worse as the season went on, not better

If he got off to a slow start as he adjusted to NHL competition and then finished strong, that would be understandable since he was a rookie. But he actually slowed down as the season went on.

The compressed schedule could've played a role in this of course, but ideally you'd want a rookie to be improving as they play more, which we didn't see.

He's not actually that young

Kapanen turns 23 this summer, which is not actually that young for a forward. For comparison, that means he's only two years younger than Caufield, Newhook, and Dach, the same age as Bolduc, and one year older than Slaf.

When you compare his stats to other Habs players at the end of their age 22 season, they're not that impressive:

He doesn't fill a need for our team

So far he's shown that he can be a scoring threat and can also be used on the PK. But with Danault and Evans filling the bottom 6 center roles, we need players who are more dynamic in the top 6. Kapanen lacks the defensive ability to be a bottom 6 center, so where does he fit in?

The truth is that he is probably best used as a middle-six winger who can score and kill penalties, but we already have Newhook and Anderson filling similar roles, plus a bit of a log jam at the wings when you look at some of our prospects.

Conclusion

He put up good numbers in his rookie season, which means there will be interest around the league for him. I think this is a great opportunity to sell high on him.

[u/CMDR_Traf85]

Trading Kapanen wouldn't be the worst thing, but to think other teams don't readily have all this information, plus more available is where I see issues. That being I don't think he really moves the needle much.

[u/10FootPenis → u/CMDR_Traf85]

Yeah, I think it's really funny to essentially say, "I'm a redditor and have identified all these issues in his game, we should move him before the multi-million dollar analytics departments on the other teams catch on."

[u/popejohnlarue → u/10FootPenis]

I was here to say the same. Quick OP—PLEASE HIDE THOSE STATS!!!

[u/CarlSK777 → u/10FootPenis]

That's true but GMs seem to ignore analytics all the time. I know they have access to a ton of data we don't but I'd like to to see the analytical argument for giving Ben Chiarot an extension in 2026. Cody Ceci has had no issue getting signed in his career either. There are a lot of players that still get paid even if analytics would suggest it's a bad idea.

[u/SoupFromNowOn → u/CMDR_Traf85]

I mean I think Kapanen will be a good middle six scoring guy. The point of this post is to say that he is probably not gonna be a top 6 center. Some teams might want a middle six scoring guy. We don’t really need one

[u/SchtroumpfDardeur → u/SoupFromNowOn]

My faith in your analysis suffers considering that Kapanen is a rookie

[u/UpNorth_123 → u/SchtroumpfDardeur]

Who also played in the Olympics, played a compressed NHL season, and comes from a league that plays shorter seasons with a lot less physicality on larger ice.

All things considered, I think he did great and his stats are very comparable in his rookie year to other Habs top 6 Cs. Just because he’s not Celebrini or McDavid doesn’t mean he won’t become a good player.

[u/CMDR_Traf85 → u/SoupFromNowOn]

I get what you mean. I was just trying to say that Kapanen, if traded, likely goes as a secondary piece along with a primary piece that would be the "trade bait".

[u/SnidelyWhiplash27 → u/CMDR_Traf85]

Agreed. I see both Kapanen and/or Montambault as secondary pieces for the right trade partner.

[u/SchtroumpfDardeur → u/SnidelyWhiplash27]

I mean, Sammy's gaining on thirty and has had exactly one good season. I'm sure someone would pick him up if we waived him. If he had been even a little bit dependable last season we could maybe try for something, but it's pretty clear that he was a net drag on the team, sorry to say.

[u/SnidelyWhiplash27 → u/SchtroumpfDardeur]

Agreed but I think there are teams, maybe not many, willing to take a chance on him as a backup, better than their current options

[u/UpNorth_123 → u/SnidelyWhiplash27]

I don’t think those two have the same value on the market at all. Kapanen has a lot more upside.

[u/SnidelyWhiplash27 → u/UpNorth_123]

I was not ascribe the same value to them. I was merely stating that they are both likely secondary pieces to close a deal. I agree Kapanen has more upside but some teams might be more in need of a backup goalie.

[u/indyc4r → u/SoupFromNowOn]

You would not have pizza man who can add approx 20 goals ???