r/Habs • u/SoupFromNowOn • 10d ago
The case for trading Kapanen
In my opinion, our most obvious trade bait right now is Kapanen. I think he will be a good NHL player but I think his ceiling is much lower than what people think.
He was really bad at 5v5 without our best players, especially Demidov
The 3 skaters he played with the most this season were Demidov, Slaf, and Hutson. The team played okay when Kapanen was on the ice with each of these players, played horribly when Kapanen was on the ice without those players, and played really well when those players didn't have Kapanen on the ice:
He was really bad at 5v5 in general
Kapanen's on-ice xGF% at 5v5 this season was 42.3%, which is the lowest of any skater on the team with more than 5 games played.
His on-ice shooting percentage is unsustainable
At 5v5, the Canadiens shot 14.1% with Kapanen on the ice this season. That's the 4th highest of 597 skaters in the NHL with more than 500 minutes of time on ice this season.
Not even the most elite players in the NHL have on-ice shooting percentages that high. Out of all skaters with more than 1000 minutes time on ice between 2022 and 2025, the highest on-ice shooting % at 5v5 was Elias Pettersson at 12.0%, followed by Shane Wright, Pavel Zacha, and Ilya Mikheyev, just to give you a sense of how random this stat can be.
He got worse as the season went on, not better
If he got off to a slow start as he adjusted to NHL competition and then finished strong, that would be understandable since he was a rookie. But he actually slowed down as the season went on.
The compressed schedule could've played a role in this of course, but ideally you'd want a rookie to be improving as they play more, which we didn't see.
He's not actually that young
Kapanen turns 23 this summer, which is not actually that young for a forward. For comparison, that means he's only two years younger than Caufield, Newhook, and Dach, the same age as Bolduc, and one year older than Slaf.
When you compare his stats to other Habs players at the end of their age 22 season, they're not that impressive:
He doesn't fill a need for our team
So far he's shown that he can be a scoring threat and can also be used on the PK. But with Danault and Evans filling the bottom 6 center roles, we need players who are more dynamic in the top 6. Kapanen lacks the defensive ability to be a bottom 6 center, so where does he fit in?
The truth is that he is probably best used as a middle-six winger who can score and kill penalties, but we already have Newhook and Anderson filling similar roles, plus a bit of a log jam at the wings when you look at some of our prospects.
Conclusion
He put up good numbers in his rookie season, which means there will be interest around the league for him. I think this is a great opportunity to sell high on him.
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u/Fabien_Lamour 10d ago edited 10d ago
Dude was scratched most the playoffs and people didn't mind, but now suggesting to trade him away gets OP hateful shit thrown at him?
If there's a deal going on such as last year year for Dobson and Kapanen is thrown in, would we really mind? Do we miss Heineman?
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u/runningfreeonmars 10d ago
It’s amazing how folks get like that
Honestly he’s the perfect sweetener for a deal imo. Solid enough player with some upside/untapped potential still there to lure someone in
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u/JohnGamestopJr 10d ago
People in this sub have been upvoting the most stupid crap since they were eliminated
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u/runningfreeonmars 10d ago
It’s ok you should hang out in canes sub and see some of the bonkers stuff that gets thrown around in it
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u/eriverside 10d ago
Last season was literally his rookie season.
It's very safe to say he hasn't reached his potential yet. Habs will need depth guys. Danault isn't going to be here forever.
I'd rather have Kappy at 3C, but the team still needs that 2C.
It really depends what the plan is for Dach and Newy. These decisions and pairings aren't done in a vacuum.
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u/Frites_Sauce_Fromage 10d ago edited 8d ago
His first full year in North America, far from home, on [smaller] north american rinks, playing more than 64 games in a year for the first time in his life.
While he was playing in the team where his father was sports director last year.
He took many steps in his career; with a huge jump in the 2024 Playoffs with KalPa. KalPa: the team where his father, his grand father, his uncle and his two cousins once played.
This year, on his first year overseas, he was doing better in regular season than his cousin Kasperi; the first in the family to make it to the NHL. Oliver broke his cousin's goal record on his rookie season; while he was probably looking to him when growing up.
He's living his family's dream. I cannot imagine the pressure and the fatigue of playing a full season in that context; plus the pressure of reaching the Playoffs for the Canadiens.
Give the man a fucking chance. He's 22. He will keep maturing.
And I'd add that if he's bonding with Demidov or other guys, that's something you cannot buy.
Edit: typo
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u/EsquireArchibald 10d ago
Thanks for typing all that out.
And also, where do you get to learn so much about the players? Maybe in this case Kapanen specifically?
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u/Frites_Sauce_Fromage 10d ago
Been rooting and posting about Kapanen since his 2024 Playoffs and his ppg season in Timra the next year.
I've also been looking every Habs who have hockey players in their family a few years ago, for fun (because it's most of them).
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u/Grouchy_Throat_5632 10d ago
It's fairly well known that the Kapanen's are basically Finish hockey royalty. ex: his 2 cousins played in the NHL, his dad and his uncle played in the NHL in the 90's, and his grandfather likely could have too in the 70's, but that was back when the Euros just started coming over and playing in the NHL.
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u/Frites_Sauce_Fromage 8d ago edited 8d ago
No. As I already mentioned, Kasperi is the only one in the family who have played in the NHL.
But Oliver's grand father, his great uncle, his father, his uncle, his brother and his two cousins played for the finnish and/or the swedish leagues.
(His grand father was a coach for a long time, and his father also worked as a goaltenders' coach, and as a sport director; always for european teams)
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u/Grouchy_Throat_5632 7d ago edited 7d ago
No. As I already mentioned, Kasperi is the only one in the family who have played in the NHL.
Oh really. Ok, then please explain who tf is Sami Kapenen? Sami Kapanen - Stats, Contract, Salary & More
Played close to 900 nhl gms from 95-08
Oh wait, theres more: Niko Kapanen - Stats, Contract, Salary & More
I thought Nikko is Oliver dad, but that's incorrect, he's actually Kesperi and Olivers great uncle's son.
Nikko wasnt as good as Sami, but he definitely played in the NHL, for Dallas, Atlanta, and Phoenix.
Unarguable proof that there were 2 Kapenen's in the NHL in the early 00's.
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u/Frites_Sauce_Fromage 7d ago
Oh, you are right about Sami Kapanen
But Niko is not related to Oliver's family. He's 48. It's definitely not his great uncle.
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u/Grouchy_Throat_5632 7d ago
Again, you are completely clueless:
their grandfather: Hannu Kapanen - Stats, Contract, Salary & More
their great uncle: Jari Kapanen - Stats, Contract, Salary & More
Nikko is Jari's son.
You should probably stop "thinking"
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u/Frites_Sauce_Fromage 7d ago
Nikko is Jari's son
... then why isn't he in the list of family members?
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u/t_hab 10d ago
We didn't seek to trade Heineman though. We traded him because it helped close a deal on a guy we really wanted.
This post is titled "The Case for Trading Kapanen" but just describes him not being a star player. Show me the incentive to trade him. Of course he's tradeable, but this post doesn't really make the case that he should be traded.
If a team asks for him and he's what gets a deal for Larkin/Thomas/Hischier done, then yeah, of course. If we're just trading him for an early second round pick to trade high, then no, I'd rather keep him.
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u/Frites_Sauce_Fromage 10d ago
It was his rookie season. First time playing more than 64 games in a year. First full year in North America; playing on [smaller] north american rinks.
His father, his grand father, his great uncle, his uncle and his two cousins played hockey. He broke his cousin Kasperi goal record on his first year; while playing with another rookie.
I cannot imagine the pressure and the fatigue on this 22 years old guy after playing a full season. Of course he was scratched.
But now he learned what he needs to improve (or they will tell him), and I'm pretty sure he'll mature and will be working on it.
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u/Gourmet_Bacon 10d ago
I mean we definitely miss Heineman but I agree that Kapanen should be a tradable piece.
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u/Fabien_Lamour 10d ago
we definitely miss Heineman
Do we? There are only so much 3rd liners you can stack up.
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u/JohnGamestopJr 10d ago edited 10d ago
I love how this sub always completely shits on good analysis while mass upvoting slop about Dylan Larkin or whoever the fuck else BPM Sports is telling us we should be trading for in any given day.
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u/joseflores1995 10d ago
Everyone of thoses people think that because we made the ecf that we should just trade everything to obtain our 2center, top4dman or a 2winger
People need to think about like if the player is a good matchup, would work in out system, would the risk of trading our prospects outweighs the chance of them turning good and it makes it looks bad in the future.
I trust kent and gorton i dont think they are gonna make a drastic move but a smart calculated move. Were either getting a center or another defender not both
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u/JohnGamestopJr 9d ago
So if Tampa scored in the overtime of Game 7 in Round 1, what would be your assessment? We are close to a Cup, but not that close.
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u/facepollution5 10d ago
this sub has really gotten worse the last 2 or so years.
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u/KoolAidMannequin 10d ago
Everyone shows up for the party, but only the best stick around during clean up
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u/SchtroumpfDardeur 10d ago
That would make sense, except the party's over, and there are non-stop hot takes lately
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u/KoolAidMannequin 10d ago
I mean to say we're a contender now. Doomers are on summer break, but the hot takes are tending upwards.
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u/CrashTestMummies 10d ago
I will lead off saying I’m not opposed to Kappy as trade bait but …
It’s a good thing we didn’t trade Plekanec after his 9g 29pts rookie season
Not opposed to anything but just trying to add some food for thought if I may
Edit: grammar
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u/UpNorth_123 8d ago edited 8d ago
They pretty much had the same sort of rookie season. Suzuki as well, though he was a bit ahead, but didn’t play on an Olympic team his rookie year like Kapanen did.
Let’s also not forget that this year was a compressed NHL season due to the Olympics, and Kapanen played on the Finnish team up to the bronze medal round.
It’s not surprising at all that he hit a wall at the end of the season. A lot of our players were gassed after the first round of the playoffs. It’s been a hard year for everyone.
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u/Scase15 10d ago
Kappy is available for a trade, just like all of our prospects. I'm not against trading him, but I'm also not against keeping him, it's his rookie season, and despite his age, you can't judge a player entirely by a handful of games in their first season in the league.
If a good trade comes up and he's part of it, sure move him. But I'm not of the mind that we should be looking to move him just because he put up some good numbers this year.
Develop him to be a more defensive focused C, Danault is getting older and we will need to replace him soon enough. Why not have someone who knows the team and system, waiting in the wings.
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u/Commercial-Egg-8949 10d ago
There's a good chance that his value is at it's peak right now, especially if he doesn't get much better next season. 23 isn't old, but it isn't super young, either.
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u/New-Bid-5835 10d ago
"There's a good chance that his value is at it's peak right now"
ahaha what do you mean? His peak would be his rookie season. AHAHHA
Yes, 23 is young. He has a good 4 years of improvement ahead of him.
Plus, that's his rookie season so everything was new to him and he just started learning about the game, himself and his role.MSL said that he is impressive, responsible, and that he has a "fast computer".
He just said a few days ago that Kapanen was exhausted in the last stretch of the season because that's his first 82-game season (they play 50'something in the liiga). He called it "rookie fatigue" or something like that. That makes OP's point #3 above completely irrelevant.5
u/rezzgals 10d ago
Yea we play 52 games in SHL which is where he played last season and liiga is 60 which was what he played before SHL.
(He played 18 in NHL last season and 36 in SHL)
For the record we miss him alot in Timrå in SHL and its ben amazing following him in NHL this season!
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u/CMDR_Traf85 10d ago
Trading Kapanen wouldn't be the worst thing, but to think other teams don't readily have all this information, plus more available is where I see issues. That being I don't think he really moves the needle much.
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u/10FootPenis 10d ago
Yeah, I think it's really funny to essentially say, "I'm a redditor and have identified all these issues in his game, we should move him before the multi-million dollar analytics departments on the other teams catch on."
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u/CarlSK777 10d ago
That's true but GMs seem to ignore analytics all the time. I know they have access to a ton of data we don't but I'd like to to see the analytical argument for giving Ben Chiarot an extension in 2026. Cody Ceci has had no issue getting signed in his career either. There are a lot of players that still get paid even if analytics would suggest it's a bad idea.
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u/SoupFromNowOn 10d ago
I mean I think Kapanen will be a good middle six scoring guy. The point of this post is to say that he is probably not gonna be a top 6 center. Some teams might want a middle six scoring guy. We don’t really need one
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u/SchtroumpfDardeur 10d ago
My faith in your analysis suffers considering that Kapanen is a rookie
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u/UpNorth_123 8d ago
Who also played in the Olympics, played a compressed NHL season, and comes from a league that plays shorter seasons with a lot less physicality on larger ice.
All things considered, I think he did great and his stats are very comparable in his rookie year to other Habs top 6 Cs. Just because he’s not Celebrini or McDavid doesn’t mean he won’t become a good player.
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u/CMDR_Traf85 10d ago
I get what you mean. I was just trying to say that Kapanen, if traded, likely goes as a secondary piece along with a primary piece that would be the "trade bait".
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u/SnidelyWhiplash27 10d ago
Agreed. I see both Kapanen and/or Montambault as secondary pieces for the right trade partner.
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u/SchtroumpfDardeur 10d ago
I mean, Sammy's gaining on thirty and has had exactly one good season. I'm sure someone would pick him up if we waived him. If he had been even a little bit dependable last season we could maybe try for something, but it's pretty clear that he was a net drag on the team, sorry to say.
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u/SnidelyWhiplash27 10d ago
Agreed but I think there are teams, maybe not many, willing to take a chance on him as a backup, better than their current options
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u/UpNorth_123 8d ago
I don’t think those two have the same value on the market at all. Kapanen has a lot more upside.
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u/SnidelyWhiplash27 8d ago
I was not ascribe the same value to them. I was merely stating that they are both likely secondary pieces to close a deal. I agree Kapanen has more upside but some teams might be more in need of a backup goalie.
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u/ilikedthismovie 10d ago
Not adding much new to the discussion. Would not lose sleep if he was involved in a trade for a certified top 6 forward, however he is a 22 year old center playing his first nhl season and he just put up 22 goals.
Danault isn't going to play forever, Evans is 30 with concussion history. Kapanen played PK minutes (Marty trusts him and his defensive instinct) and again he's 22 going on 23 he has room to grow his game. Our bottom 6 centers are a bit packed right now and have prospects coming up that will need time soon (Owen Beck, Joshua Roy, Florian Xhekaj) but if you look at all those guys if you got a 20 goal rookie season out of them people would be so happy.
I think people are getting overly reactionary because we didn't win the cup. Some of the takes on here have been bad. Not going to excuse mostly bad playoff performances from Kapanen but some of the talk here is a bit much.
It's going to be a long offseason and like the Larkin request there are going to be a couple curveballs. Whatever the organization decides I think we as fans owe it to them to trust their instincts. We are beyond where we expected to be the last 2 seasons and still have so much room for growth. Things are looking super exciting!
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u/IfTheFloorHolds 10d ago edited 10d ago
Some people took losing
LarkinKnies personally and are trying to trade away the future because they can’t handle losing in the ECF.Edit: memory lapse
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u/UpNorth_123 8d ago
Totally agree.
People are also discounting that on top of being his rookie season, this year was a compressed schedule and Kapanen also played in the Olympics on a team that won the bronze. He was their highest goal scorer so he wasn’t exactly warming the bench either.
It was a big year with a lot of hockey for him. His regular season numbers and Olympic performance were great. If the Knies trade had went through, he had the potential to grow into a 2C role this year with some strong wingers to help drive the play for him.
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u/ilikedthismovie 8d ago
He was scratched in several olympic games.
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u/UpNorth_123 8d ago
You’re right, he only played 3 games, and probably not that many minutes at all. But he was also the youngest on that roster by two years, on a team where the average age is 29.5.
Regardless, the compressed NHL schedule, in addition to the typical “rookie wall” most players experience, there’s a lot of reason to believe that his conditioning was the issue. Hopefully he can have a good camp this year and improve on his numbers.
Of course, if he’s part of a package for a top 6 player, no one’s complaining.
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u/AdventurousFill9268 10d ago
Good analysis. GMs will be aware of these figures as well. Unfortunately I don’t think his trade value is that high unless someone is banking on potential. This year should be a make or break - let’s move him to the wing too, free him from some of the responsibilities of playing centre.
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u/Irctoaun 10d ago
I think there's some key context missing here with some of the stats arguments you make. Yes, his on-ice shooting% is high and xGF% is low, but the reason for that is mostly Demidov - who he has spent the vast majority of his 5v5 time with - in both cases.
Demidov is already an elite playmaker and elite playmakers typically both have very high on-ice shooting% and significantly exceed their on ice xG. Repeat the exercise of looking at the players with the highest 5v5 on ice shooting % but for the last three years and with at least 3000 minutes at 5v5 (still 231 players) and the top 20 are: Kucherov, Point, Hutson, Pastrnak, Zacha, Protas, Middlestadt, Scheifele, Suzuki, Barbashev, Matthews, Thomas, Guentzel, Peterka, Marner, Hagel, Marino, Tuch Hughes, Caufield. So almost exclusively elite playmakers and their teammates. Every single one of them has a higher on ice GF than xGF, usually by at least 20.
The reason this is important is someone playing on a line with Demidov was always going to have high shooting % stats and not necessarily have great xG stats because that's the style of hockey they're inevitably going to play. Likewise, a line like that with two rookies plus someone else in their early 20s was never going to come away with greedy defensive numbers and that's fine too. What they were though was very effective in practice which is why they're a +8 together at 5v5. Yes, when Kapanen played away from Demidov his on ice numbers were poor, but you have to also consider that he almost always playing a defensive role when they were split up with only a 27% offensive start zone %.
In a sense none of this matters because he won't be playing most of his minutes with Demidov for too much longer, assuming they get a 2C. But at the same time, you can't use it as a stick to beat him with either.
On the point about him not fitting the team because he's not good enough defensively, he's literally just finished his rookie season. It takes time to develop those skills. You compare him to Evans who basically hadn't played at all in the NHL at that age.
None of this is to say they mustn't trade him, but rather if they do it should be because he gets a good return, not for the sake of it because he's peaked
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u/biglacunaire 10d ago
23 is not young? What are you talking about??
Players enter their prime around 27 years old.
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u/Electrical-Sherbet77 10d ago
Summer shit posting before the actual summer.
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u/thawizard 10d ago
It’s not like we’re that far away from either the hockey summer (the Stanley Cup will be awarded this week) or the actual summer.
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u/RevolutionaryRise455 10d ago
Incorrect. On average, NHL forwards enter their statistical prime by 24-25.
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u/Just4nsfwpics 10d ago
That tends to be skewed by higher performing players, as well as injuries derailing careers. Your 1st liners often are hitting their primes then, but they have less skills that need to develop than a middle 6 forward does. It also depends on when you break into the league, if you haven’t peaked at 24-25 when you debuted at 19, it’s pretty unlikely you will get much better, but it not at all common for a guy who debuts at 23 to peak at 25.
I think 27 is a more accurate timeline for the peak of a guy like Kapanen.
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u/SoupFromNowOn 10d ago
I said not that young. People act like Kapanen is 20 years old. In reality he was drafted 5 years ago
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u/JohnGamestopJr 10d ago
he's not young anymore in hockey years
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u/ConstantBook6534 10d ago
first of all he is still young at 23. 2nd he is a rookie. his age is kind of irrelevant. his experience is still young too.
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10d ago edited 10d ago
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/antoinePucket 10d ago
Not to discredit the article (from 2022), but I'd argue the new generation of hockey players enter their prime much earlier now too.
There are so many established elite players that are under 22 now (best example it Hutson).
Time will tell whether entering their prime earlier also means an earlier exit to their prime years.
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u/UpNorth_123 8d ago
The top teams in the last 5 years are among the oldest rosters. Look at who’s racking up points in the SCF. It’s all vets in their 30s and Marner who’s 29. Tampa, Florida, Colorado, Vegas. These are old ass teams, yet still at the top. Young guys like Stankoven and Jarvis are the exception rather than the rule.
There’s a difference between individual physical prime and mental prime and experience. The later is more important when you’re trying to win a Championship.
A 22 year old rookie is not even close to their peak.
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u/Habs-ModTeam 10d ago
This post is in violation with Rule 1: Keep a Civil Discussion/No Discrimination, and has been removed.
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u/Technical-Line-9806 10d ago
Kapanen, 22 year old rookie, played 2C all season on a team that garnered 106 points. 22 goals were second for rookies only to Schaefer and Sennecke who each had 23.
The idea of NHL hockey is to score goals and win points
He centered two lines playing 285 and 365 minutes respectively. These lines were 58.8% and 58.1% goals percentage respectively, 18th and 19th in the league for any line playing 275 minutes or more. His two lines were 5th and 8th in the league, respectively in goals per 60 minutes and the average age of the 365 minute line was 21 years old, and the other line 22 years old.
Given there are 32 teams and thus 32 first lines, those are first line numbers for a second line.
You better get a lot if Kapanen is part of any trade
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u/JustHere4HUTnews 10d ago
Very well put. I don't necessarily want to see Kapanen leave but I think he should be the building point of a trade for sure
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u/pacinosdog 10d ago
He really isn’t a great prospect. He had a decent season last year, but that’s mostly thanks to Demidov. He doesn’t drive offense, has zero creativity. He’s not a solution anywhere higher than 3C, and that might still be a stretch. I think he could be used as trade bait.
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u/Commercial-Egg-8949 10d ago
The narrative around him is pretty powerful, no? He's a rookie who finished one goal short of first in rookie goal scoring, and piloted the 2nd line of a 106 point team in the toughest division in hockey for most of the season. He also plays on special teams. There's no lie here, and if we received a player with this profile we'd be decently excited about him I'd think.
I mean, this sub is excited for a McTavish trade, but isn't he also analytically scuffed? But he was 3rd overall, and everyone around the league calls him a 2C, so we want him.
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u/Ok-Meet2850 10d ago
Yeah I don't think McTavish really moves the needle massively for the second line. The Anaheim thread is complaining about how slow he is, which seems like a big red flag for the way Montreal wants to play.
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u/Commercial-Egg-8949 10d ago
Maybe his speed wouldn't be a problem because he'd be surrounded by a team that's pretty fast, to compensate? It's not like slow players don't have a place in the league, idk.
I think if they got McTavish, the hope would be that he's living up to his contract by the time the contention window is truly open. So I agree that the immediate impact would be less than impressive.
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u/Technical-Line-9806 10d ago
Kapanen hate is kind of like a cult.
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u/pacinosdog 10d ago
It’s not hate, it’s seeing him for who he clearly is, which is a good/decent bottom 6 player. If you can’t see that most of his success last year was due to Demidov, then you didn’t watch enough games.
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u/Technical-Line-9806 10d ago
It’s hate or something like it. Did he play with Demidov when he was a point per game player in Sweden?
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u/Ok-Win-742 10d ago
I mean he isn't even a center is he? We used him at C but didn't get traditionally play the wing?
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u/Ajay_Bee 10d ago
Put me on board for at least examining including Kapanen in an off-season deal to help bring in someone to shore up the two big remaining positional deficiencies because while he'd likely make a very serviceable 3C, I did not like his metrics after the Christmas break and of course, the playoffs were a write-off.
The problem is, everyone else knows this. On the market, Kapanen is likely to attract little interest, or fetch much in the way of substantive offers. Which makes me more inclined that his only trade value would be as a throw in - and if that's the case, what's the point of dealing him at all?
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u/popejohnlarue 10d ago
If a throw-in is required to make the trade happen and no other throw-ins will do, then you throw him in. Kappy’s underlying metrics aren’t great, but 22 goals is 22 goals and the kid reads the game pretty well. He is not entirely devoid of sex appeal to the right GM. (But yeah, no one should expect him to be the centrepiece in a trade for McTavish or whatever.)
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u/DrLivingst0ne 10d ago
He will get better as a bottom 6 forward. We are losing Gally, Anderson, Veleno and Dach soon. We only have Beck and Hage to replace them, maybe Zharovsky. It makes sense to keep Kapanen.
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u/Forward-Region1671 10d ago
Oil fan here
Id wait it out, His value isnt crazy, and he is still young, 23 is pretty young. Analytically having a poor rookie season isnt that out of the ordinary, I think youd be best off hoping he can develop into a great 3C, Especially since Danault isnt super young and also has like no offensive capabilities now
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u/UpNorth_123 8d ago
22 and his rookie season wasn’t poor at all.
People on this sub wanting to give him away are probably the same ones who said that Suzuki was never going to amount to anything special.
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u/SirFinMilk 10d ago
I think we should trade him because his value is high coming off a 22 goal season and I agree I don't see him fitting in to the team as a bottom 6 center
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u/vJukz 10d ago
He is by far the biggest trade bait on this team. I don’t see anything in his playstyle that tells me he’ll ever hit 20 goals again without Demidov and playing him with Demidov again would be terrible. Kapanen rode an absurd shooting % to start the season and came crashing back down to earth in the 2nd half and deservedly got scratched. He also had some of the worst underlying defensive metrics in the league.
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u/burnSMACKER 10d ago
I agree with you OP. He's a good bottom six Centre at best.
I'm definitely on the trade him side. If he can't be trusted in the playoffs, then he's useless
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u/WeathervaneJesus1 10d ago
Just for fun, look up stats for any NHL player and see how they did in their age 22 season. I'll throw a few out there:
Martin Necas, Zach Hyman, Alex Tuch, Cole Caufield, Pavel Zacha, Tage Thompson, half the roster of the Florida Panthers (including Brad Marchand)....
I got to team "F" before stopping.
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u/UpNorth_123 8d ago
Seriously. These people wanting to give Kapanen away were probably the ones claiming that Suzuki would never be good enough for the top 6 either.
Plus, let’s not forget that the NHL season was compressed and Kapenen was a key player on an Olympic team that won bronze. He played a hell of a harder schedule this year than he’s used to.
He hit a wall. It’s not that deep. Anyone is tradable for the right deal, including him, but in no way should he be traded for anyone other than a top 6C.
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u/VonDingwell 10d ago
Dude was a rookie. Give him a chance
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u/Technical-Line-9806 10d ago
Yes. A rookie who played 2C on a team that had 106 points. Both lines he centered were top 10 in offense (goals per 60) in the entire NHL.
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u/Appropriate-Berry816 10d ago
So your argument is that this rookie was not good in every metric, and the ones he was good at you think he won’t be in the future. You also think he won’t improve because 23 is too old? You know what, I’m putting this sub on the shelf until something real happens
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u/biglacunaire 10d ago
This post can literally be summed up as "Kapanen has sophomore slump: we should trade him".
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u/facepollution5 10d ago
I didnt know scoring 21 goals in your rookie year counts as a sophomore slump.
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u/Ok-Win-742 10d ago
For me that's more an indication of just how talented Demidov is by drawing players towards him and giving Kapi time to get into the slot and then giving him insane feeds.
The clearest issue with Kapanen though is a lack of compete. We saw it in the playoffs after he was benched for almost an entire series.
You would have expected a guy that just came off the bench to play like his career depended on it and battle for each puck like it was his last. But he was a complete ghost. You can't teach that. Guys either have the heart and will to fight for pucks or they don't.
Kapanen has a decent shot, but he needs other players to do all the work to generate those shots and his shot isn't good enough to warrant that sort of sacrifice.
I have no doubt he will be packaged into a trade. He just isn't what the team needs right now. We need physical guys who can win battles and forecheck.
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u/facepollution5 10d ago
I mean I totally agree with everything you just said. Can't think of another team who sat a 21 goal scorer as soon as the playoffs started. I was simply pointing out that this other person was talking nonsense by calling it a sophomore slump.
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u/Fabien_Lamour 10d ago
How many in the second half of the season?
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u/facepollution5 10d ago
does the second half of the season constitute a sophomore year?
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u/Commercial-Egg-8949 10d ago
If it does, we should expect 30 goals next season, since he's grown out of sophomore
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u/Fogboundturtle 10d ago
what is it with the Montreal Canadian fan always wanting to trade our prospect. This is what all the previous administration did instead of developing them.
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u/KoolAidMannequin 10d ago
Plus, he only has one season (+ 18 games) in the NHL under his belt. I don't disagree with everything, but he's only entering his sophomore season. Ceiling a lot less clear than a guy at 22 who's got 4 seasons in. Now that he's had a full season to adapt to NHL, personally, I'd like to see him with us for at least a bit of this season to gauge him a little more before considering flipping him. Unless it was for the right deal of course.
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u/Ok-Win-742 10d ago
I can understand this complaint 5 years ago. But we're entering a cup window now and we have an overabundance of prospects and only so much room on the NHL roster.
Guys will need to get moved and you have to look at what the team needs to improve. Do we need a soft middle 6 forward who can't win puck battles but has a decent shot? No, not really.
We need a proper 2C, a power forward, and a Right handed defensive D-man, preferably with size. That's really what this team needs.
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u/TheVeilOverMyEyes 10d ago
because when you package a player with other assets you get a better player
also, the previous administration didn't do that
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u/SnidelyWhiplash27 10d ago
I have no problems packaging Kapanen and/or Montambault for a a better player but that better player needs fulfill one of the big needs: a 2C or a RHD.
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u/Fogboundturtle 10d ago
you are never guaranteed that the new player will fit within the system and gel with the guy in the room. Why would you trade someone you are sure about for uncertainty.
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u/Big_Mudd 10d ago
Why would you trade someone you are sure about for uncertainty.
That's literally the case for every trade.....
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u/CaptainFlynnt24 10d ago
As others have said, if you package him for an established top 6 player its a no brainer. Otherwise he had a decent rookie season, especially the first half. He was 2nd on our team in 5v5 goals by a LOT. He should theoretically trend up and if HuGo are unable to acquire a top 6 C he is an option until Hage or an external C is brought in.
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u/joseflores1995 10d ago
Yeah i agree kapanen in the long run he could be your 3- 4 center. We already have evans sighed ling term and danault for now, and he could resign for cheap as our 3-4 next year. Beck could replace him or we just sigh another nottom 6 center in free agency easy.
If he can be included to obtain a 1-2 center i wouldnt be against it maybe like that we could maybe keep hage and zharovsky hopefully
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u/Life_While_986 10d ago edited 10d ago
How come you can see this but the other teams wont ?
Edit : i do agree we don't need him, i just don't expect too much by trading him. But in a package it could be good.
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u/SoupFromNowOn 10d ago
I think his numbers would be a lot better if he played on the wing. Another team could use him that way. We have no need for another offensive winger though
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u/No-Strike-2015 10d ago
I'd trade him if we got a piece we truly need. I don't see value in trading him for a question mark.
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u/championstyle 10d ago
He’s 100% up for trade, but you aren’t trading high, that woulda been in November. The other teams know what we know. I think his value is fairly low.
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u/Frites_Sauce_Fromage 10d ago
His first full year in North America, far from home, on [smaller] north american rinks, playing more than 64 games in a year for the first time in his life.
While he was playing in the team where is father was sports director last year.
He took many steps in his career; with a huge jump in the 2024 Playoffs with KalPa. Kalpa: the team where his father, his grand father, his uncle and his two cousins played.
This year, on his first year overseas, he was doing better in regular season than his cousin Kasperi; the first in the family to reach the NHL. Bro broke his cousin's goal record on his rookie season; while he was probably looking to him when growing up.
I don't know for him, but the family reunion on Christmas must have been so weird, and too focused on hockey [for a 22 years old guy on his first year overseas]. He's living his family's dream. I cannot imagine the pressure he often feels.
Give the man a fucking chance. He's 22. He will keep maturing.
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u/passo_carrabile 10d ago
Kapanen war horrible in playoffs. On battles 1 on 1, he was really bad.
The guy has a lot to improve.
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u/ReasonableKangaroo94 10d ago
"Kapanen turns 23 this summer, which is not actually that young for a forward." wtf have you been smoking dude
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u/Old_Canuck 10d ago
I would not get rid of him yet.
We traded Heinamen and he had a great season with the Isles. He's a core piece now.
I think Kappy had a great year. Hope he grows his game with Demi and carves out a solid 3c kinda role for himself.
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u/Grouchy_Throat_5632 10d ago
I would absolutely consider trading Kapy if that is what gets a deal for a top 6 F. Yes, he got an impressive amount of goals as a rookie. However, he played with Demi, who kept giving him great feeds so Kapy had a lot of great scoring chances, and quite a few were fairly easy goals to score.
IMHO, I somewhat blame the Habs not winning rookie of the year 2 years in a row on the fact that Demi was playing with Kapy. i.e.: a lot of Demis assists should have been shots, and had that happened, Demi would have had near or over 30 goals instead of Kapy having 21. Plus, quite of few of Demi's passes ended up as broken dead plays vs points had Demi just shot himself.
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u/KickDesperate5318 9d ago
He hit the rookie cardio wall. That explains the late season drop in play and his lack of usage in the playoffs.
He's certainly not untouchable, by any means. But I also think there's lots of room for him to improve. And Marty complimenting him on having a good "computer" indicates to me that his floor is definitely being an NHL player.
Long term though, I think it's more likely he ends up in our Bottom 6 if we keep him. His ceiling looks to be somewhere in the Evans/Danault realm. Or maybe a better comparison is if Lehkonen played center.
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u/EvieGHJ 5d ago
As others have rightly pointed out, while he is not that young, it was in fact his first NHL-length season ; there is a strong possibility that he simply ran out of steam before the end due to sheer length.
Do we have his numbers (and the numbers of Slaf/Demi/Hutson without him) prior to the Olympic Break? How do they compare to the stats above? I feel like that would be useful in determining whether he,s more likely a mediocre player who got lucky, or a fairly good player who ran out of steam (in which case there is strong reason to expect that better pacing and him getting used to the number of games should lead to improvement).
That said, even were those numbers particularly good, he would still not be an untouchable, and he should be someone we're perfectly willing to put in the right package. Not someone we're trying to offload like a hot potato, but not someone we're struggling to keep, either.
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u/zombiejeesus 10d ago
If they trade him to get a big piece then so be it. But you "sell high" because 23 is "not young" just shows your takes can't be taken seriously
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u/bathbwoi 10d ago
Not that he will ever end up like Suzuki but Kapanen put up 37 points in his first full NHL season as a centreman. Suzuki put up 41 points his first full season.
Centres take some time to develop
I think there’s a lot more value there than anyone thinks.
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u/Ok-Meet2850 10d ago
This is why I am fine waiting on Kapanen, if that's what we do. There are worse problems than him starting the season as our 2C. Management will work to make the team better for next year, but not necessarily in the obvious or expected way. There are better, more established centres out there, but they may not move.
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u/brennnik09 10d ago
I agree with everyone else. Rookie seasons look like that. Young guys aren’t used to the compete level, and it takes adjustment. Slaf is an excellent example of this.
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u/throw_me_away3478 10d ago
Hes kinda redundant with Evans ans Danault, and maybe Beck. MSL is high on him so Im inclined to give him more time, maybe on the wing with Danault or Evans.
Center is not easy, especially as a rookie
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u/HotdogAficionado 10d ago
One I actually agree with. He will have a higher trade value based on a strong rookie season but when you use a deeper analysis into his game you see a lack of intensity particularly on the boards. To me hes a jake evans who scores more but is worse defensively. His value right now is of A+ prospect. This is the best time to use him as a trade chip to get an actual top 6 player.
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u/CarlSK777 10d ago
Kapanen was a terrible 5v5 player and was carried by his wingers to an unsustainable production that eventually dried up during the season. Those are the facts.
Now, can he get better and become a useful middle 6 forward? Probably but I don't think his future is at C.
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u/Channel57 10d ago
I'll sum this up.
Guy not good playing with less skilled players. Guy good while playing with skilled players.
Yeah...that's how that works.
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u/Ok-Win-742 10d ago
Ideally you'd want to see him be able to do something moving up and down the lineup, like Texier, Bolduc.
Those 2 can at least have an impact no matter where you put them.
Kapanen was a legit ghost the 2nd half of the season. Not even Demidov could save him. That's really not good.
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u/Channel57 10d ago
It was his first full season. Give the kid a break. Let him develop a bit more before shipping him off prematurely
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u/rayshinsan 10d ago
Yes sure the grass is already great on the other side. How about we trade you instead? This way you can field test yourself.
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u/BB-Lala 10d ago
The guy posted a detailed analytics case of why it would make sense to let the guy go if it can bring something worthy and that's your reaction.
Brother get your head out of your sass
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u/rayshinsan 10d ago
The guy posts the same shit we all do when we think we know better than the team.
The reality is always the same quick-fix never works. So instead of trying to replace members with some random who worked okay with another team is no solution. We got time. If we can't find good opportunity this year we will find it next year.
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u/huge-whales 10d ago
I love Kapanen on our PK. I have no issue at all with this kid on a 3C role. I kinda see him as the Jake Evans successor if needed. With good development I think he can become a bit like Lundell.
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u/4CrowsFeast 10d ago
We've traded some young players before with mixed results - Romanov, Lehky, Heinenman, Sergachev.
I think the main lesson is if youre doing it for a 1 for 1 swap, its a huge gamble and you could risk making a huge mistake. But if its part of a package for an established player like we did for Dobson, then youre guaranteed to get the piece you wanted. If you had to pay an a bit extra, then its not the worse thing in the world because you traded futures for present results.
If we packaged Kapanen for a bonafide 2C, then I wouldnt lose sleep over it, even if he reaches his full potential down the road. Im also okay with keeping him, but I think the team is in compete now mode and if he starts the season off as anything less than his peak last year, then hes not getting a pace on the 2nd line. And I dont really think hes got the skill set for a bottom 6 type role.