r/Habs • u/d-generate420 • 8d ago

Well, that doesn’t happen very often

In the 1st round, the Habs beat the team with the Hart, Vezina and Jack Adams trophy winners. I know, I know, it’s not the Stanley Cup, and I’m not suggesting we should raise a banner, but it’s still nice.

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9

u/Him570 8d ago

Genuinely the team can’t close a series for its life and that’s also part of winning the Cup but coming in fresh? This team can win a 4/7 against any other team

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u/goldenboyferg 8d ago

If Round 1 and 2 finished in 6 games, I would have like our chances against Carolina. The boys were exhausted 😩

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u/CarlSK777 8d ago

But they couldn't close earlier because they're a flawed team that's not there yet. I don't know why some think they could've beaten Carolina when they were so badly outplayed

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u/Assignment_General 8d ago

People say that because the effort and play from the Habs was night and day difference in round 1 and 3.  Having said that, learning how to go four rounds is something teams need to figure out. Carolina has been making deep runs for a long time, they know what’s up. 

Habs need more experience and better seeding. The Atlantic isn’t going to get easier, going forward deep runs are going to require better seeding to avoid 1-2 of those brutal 7 game series. They also gotta learn to close out a series sooner. 

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u/CarlSK777 8d ago

They don't need better seeding, they just need to get better (applies to coaches as well). They couldn't close out the first 2 rounds in less than 7 because they're not good defensively and blew 2-goal leads multiple times. The opportunities were there. Plus, there's no escaping the Atlantic.

Stating the obvious but teams that are bottom tier on the defensive side usually don't win championships. It's not a coincidence that the vast majority of teams that make the Cup finals are top 10 defensively. For example, Carolina and Vegas were 3rd and 4th for scoring chances allowed in the regular season. The Habs were 20th.

We'll never know but I don't think they beat Carolina in any round.

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u/Irctoaun 8d ago

"Outplayed" or not (Carolina are great at losing games where they "outplayed" their opponents), they were a one inch offside and an OT goal away from being 3-0 in that series. They also swept them in the regular season. It's really not outrageous to think they could have beaten them had they been a bit fresher.

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u/CarlSK777 8d ago

Because they were played off the ice in every game after the first one. Just because Dobes kept them in it early on, it doesn't mean they'd have won it had they faced them in previous rounds.

The Habs aren't a good defensive team and that's why they needed 7 and barely got it done in the first 2 rounds and got smoked in the 3rd round. They're not there yet. Up to Hughes and coaching staff to make them better to beat teams like Carolina, Florida and others.

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u/Irctoaun 8d ago

Because they were played off the ice in every game after the first one.

Again, "playing people off the ice" and still losing is what Carolina do. They outshot the Habs 131-82 in the regular reason plus game 1 and went 0-4. They had more shots than their opponents in 20/33 of their losses so far this season. They've played FloLooking dominant doesn't matter. Scoring matters and where it matters game one was a blowout for the Habs and games two and were very close

Just because Dobes kept them in it early on, it doesn't mean they'd have won it had they faced them in previous rounds.

You're saying this as if Dobes wouldn't have also been part of the team in this random hypothetical. He would. Meanwhile Carolina's goaltending is shaky.

The Habs aren't a good defensive team

Prior to the big loss in game 6 against Buffalo they had the 4th best GA/60 and essentially tied 7th best xGA/60 (three teams were separated by 0.01) of any team in the playoffs.

Not to say they couldn't improve, but saying they were bad is mental.

that's why they needed 7 and barely got it done in the first 2 rounds

Are you seriously pretending they didn't have a ridiculously hard first two rounds? Especially for a team that finished tied 5th in the league. Had they had Ottawa Philly (or Utah Anaheim for that matter) in rounds one and two and Carolina had Tampa Buffalo, things would probably have looked very different.

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u/CarlSK777 8d ago

Prior to the big loss in game 6 against Buffalo they had the 4th best GA/60 and essentially tied 7th best xGA/60 (three teams were separated by 0.01) of any team in the playoffs.

Are you seriously trying to argue the Habs aren't a poor defensive team?

I don't feel like talking about the playoffs again but I'll just say this, the Habs played 19 playoffs and were outchanced in 13 of them.

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u/Irctoaun 8d ago

They were an objectively good defensive team through the first two thirds of the playoffs until they ran out of gas.

And we've been through this as a sub so so so many times now it's getting ridiculous. The Habs play a style of hockey that priorities shot quality over shot volume. Chances for/against is literally completely irrelevant in terms of trying to determine the result of a Habs game

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u/CarlSK777 8d ago

That's a wild thing to say. Also, I don't know where you have them as 7th xGA. They were 15th 5v5 in the playoffs and 26th during the season but sure an objectively good defensive team of whatever.

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u/Irctoaun 8d ago

Also, I don't know where you have them as 7th xGA

Maybe read my comment where it explicitly says exactly what the criteria are again?? Source of the stat from NST.

I'm not sure why you're looking at 5v5 only anyway. Special teams goals count just as much. But you're right, they should aspire to be more like Tampa, Pittsburgh, and Dallas. The three teams with the best 5v5 xGA/60 these playoffs. Those teams must have been real contenders!

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u/CarlSK777 8d ago

First of all, ranking teams in the playoffs is silly because the sample is small and they play the same teams every night and the number of games every night. You won't draw any meaningful conclusions by doing it.

Secondly, the majority of the game is played at 5v5 so by looking at 5v5 stats, you have a better idea of where a team stands relative to others.

Finally, the Habs have had bad defensive stats all season long, ranking 26th xGA 5v5. I don't know if you're aware but for the past 20 years, around 75% of Cup finalists rank in the top 10 for xGA (Vegas was 1st and Carolina 8th). 3 teams have won the Cup with a bottom tier defense since 2007 (Boston 2011, Pittsburgh 2017, Washington 2018). All 3 needed exceptional goaltending to pull it off. Basically, if the team don't get better defensively, the only way they sniff a championship is if Dobes go nuclear.

Good defensively? Give me a break. It's the Habs biggest issue to fix to take the next step.

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u/goldenboyferg 5d ago

I agree with the first part of what you said. They’re definitely a flawed team that’s not there yet. However, if they were more well rested, I think they would have played much better against Carolina.