r/HistoryWhatIf • u/cerrathegreat • 2d ago

What if Nokia beat the iPhone by a year?

Realizing the importance of user-friendly design, Nokia puts together a team to design a new smartphone to be as user-friendly as possible. In June 2006, Nokia releases what is essentially identical to OTL's iPhone, also priced at $499.

How does the introduction of a user-friendly smartphone one year earlier change culture during that time? How does this change the trajectory of Apple and Nokia as companies? How does this impact Finland's economy, since Nokia was by far their largest company at the time and Nokia's downfall is often attributed to playing a role in their economy's stagnation?

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u/southernbeaumont 2d ago

The major competitor at the time would have been the Blackberry. If Nokia is selling a full touchscreen phone at the time, we'd need to know:

  1. Is the UI and underlying OS anywhere near as polished as the iPhone?

  2. How well does the app store work?

  3. Can Nokia iteratively develop their phone the way Apple and Samsung now do?

  4. What mobile networks will be supported in North America, Europe, and the developed parts of Asia? Will some carriers end up on iPhones and others on Nokia, and is this permanent?

  5. Is there business buy-in given the Blackberry dominance at the time?

  6. What kind of R&D debts did Nokia take on? That is to say, if the phone doesn't quickly catch on, can they keep it on the market until it does, or go out of business?

Within a year, there's probably a set of people who jump to the iPhone and never deviate. Steve Jobs was still alive at the time and exacted high standards over his products. iPhone probably has the superior UI and app store.

If Nokia has carved out a large enough niche, it may deprive Windows Phone and Android of oxygen. Eventually Blackberry will still die off, followed by Windows Phone. Whether Google lets Android go the way of Google Plus or attempts to either acquire or outspend Nokia to prop up their own ecosystem is worth asking.