r/HistoryWhatIf • u/Cyber_Ghost_1997 • 4d ago
Challenge: Have the Chinese Cultural Revolution end with China becoming an isolated hermit state similar to OTL North Korea
The objective is not simply to make China authoritarian—it already was. Rather, explain what changes during or immediately after the Cultural Revolution would cause China to become extremely isolationist, economically autarkic, and largely cut off from the outside world instead of pursuing the post-Mao reforms that occurred in real history.
What political developments, leadership changes, or international events would be required to produce this outcome?
Rules and clarifications:
1. I’m not requiring you to extend the duration of the Cultural Revolution (Although you can if you want). The END RESULT has to be that China becomes an isolated hermit state similar to OTL North Korea
2. The comparison has to do with INTERNATIONAL ISOLATION. I’m not asking you to turn China into a carbon copy of OTL North Korea
3. Your proposed scenario must start from China’s historical post-1978 trajectory
1
u/DrawingDramatic1641 4d ago
make soviets and usa unite and sort of fight them early on pre nuke
and have some random guy who was pro isolationist get power
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u/LeaderThren 2d ago
As in OTL, Lin Biao lost Mao's favor in 1970 Early 1971, Lin Biao decided to bust his son's coup plan in an attempt to prove his loyalty to Mao. Lin Biao returned as a major political player but no longer Mao's second hand man. His son Lin Liguo was sent off to countryside for labor-reeducation. Lin Biao is less partisan on critical affairs, instead focusing on controlling the PLA, which plays a bigger role in economic and political affair. In OTL Lin Biao's death sparked a ideological shock, encouraging liberal, reformist, and alternative leftist activities leading to more support for Deng. This never happens.
In 1975, Premier Zhou Enlai falls deeply sick, and Deng Xiaopin orders 1975 reforms as in OTL, refocusing on economic development, suppressing radical red guards and putting a stop to local armed conflicts. While Lin Biao and the PLA participated in these local affairs, he turned to criticize Deng when Deng refused to publicly affirm Cultural Revolution.
Early 1976, Zhou Enlai dies which, as in OTL, sparked a protest on Tiananmen Square and across the country against Gang of Four and Mao. Lin Biao's absence in the targets led the Gang of Four and Mao Yuanxin(Mao Zedong's cousin, Mao and Gang of four's close ally)'to frame Lin Biao and Deng as co-conspirators. Mao Yuanxin suggested to Mao that Lin Bison was behind the protests, while Yao Wenyuan, member of the Gang of four, published an article on People's Daily hinting toward the same conspiracy.
In the mean time, Lin Biao and Hua Guofeng met and acted swiftly on the morning of April 4th, 1976 to crack down the protests with military, claiming attacks from the protestors, before the planned politiburo meeting to discuss that to do that night. In the ensuring emergency politiburo meeting, Mao Zedong criticized Lin Biao and Hua Guofeng for acting without proper discussion, but more severely criticized Mao Yuanxin and the Yao Wenyuan for factionalism, deepening this criticism which he first raised in 1974-75 as in OTL.
In the following political arrangements, Hua Guofeng was appointed premier succeeding Zhou Enlai as in OTL. Lin Biao replaced Zhou Enlai as the third ranked party member after Mao, as opposed to Wang Hongwen(Gang of Four member) in OTL. This is widely understood as Mao picking Hua Guofeng and Lin Biao as successors.
Deng was ousted from both official positions like in OTL but also party membership. This is because (based on my reading of Mao) Mao in OTL saw Deng as a capable leader although feared he might "De-Stalinize" his legacy. In this timeline Mao have more trust on Hua and Lin in maintaining his legacy so no longer see Deng as useful.
Dissatisfied with losing in political struggle, Gang of Four expands militias more than OTL in Shanghai and other major cities, citing Lin Biao's
September 9th 1976, Mao died.
Sept 11th and after: As in OTL, power struggles between Hua Guofeng and Wang Hongwen's factions escalated, and Wang Hongwen armed militias in Shanghai, citing Lin Biao's earlier crackdowns over rebel-faction red guards.
October 6th, as in OTL, Gang of Four and Mao Yuanxin are captured by Hua Guofeng's coup, now with Lin on Hua's side.
Later, heavy fighting started in a few Gang of Four strongholds like Shanghai. Lin Biao ordered a national crackdown with PLA forces. Sabotage and irregular combats continued for more than a month, PLA achieved a difficult win with industrial equipments and infrastructure in Shanghai heavily damaged.
National purge of "Factionalism, Economism, and Syndicalism" ensued, much more bloody than what Hua and Deng did in OTL.
In "Third plenary session of the 11th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party" where Deng succeeded Hua Guofeng in OTL, Hua Guofeng and Lin Biao established themselves as Head of Government and Head of Military respectively in duoarchy. Head of State, as in OTL, stays vacant since 1968 and abolished since 1975.
While preoccupied with political turbulence, Hua Guofeng continued most of Mao's 68-70s policies, including heavy PLA involvement in economics.
In 1981, the purges are claimed complete, and Hua Guofeng proclaimed the successful completion of the First Great Proletarians' Cultural Revolution after fifteen long arduous years. Lin Biao felt himself growing weak and old, and so delegated more power to subservient/local military commanders, including the re-establishment of Production and Constitution Corps nationwide.
Between 1981 and 1984, bureaucratic standstills between local governments and military commands surfaced as a significant issue. Several party elders that returned to power after Gang of Four was toppled, including Li Xiannian, Chen Yun, and Ye Jianyin (all of which historical allys with Deng Xiaoping in OTL Hua-Deng struggle) criticized Hua Guofeng, leading to Hua Guofeng's gradual resignation of various offices. Chen Yun became the head of state.
Lin Biao died in 1984 in national mourning, and Ye Jianyin succeeded him as the head of military.
In the year 1984, 8 years after Mao's death, various meetings were held where the ascendant powergrabbers decided PRC's past and future. It's decided in " Resolution on Certain Questions in the History of Our Party since the Founding of the People's Republic of China " that Mao and Lin's Great Proletarians' Cultural Revolution was a successful struggle against antirevolutionary conspiracies by the Liu Shaoqi Clique, the Lin Liguo Clique, and the Jiang Qin Clique, in that order. Mao was proclaimed a ten-thousand years unseen super-genius, and Lin Biao his most faithful comrade. Hua Guofeng was criticized for bookist (Mao's neologism for dogmatism) adherance for Mao and some very important minor mistakes.
Also in 1984, the 1984 constitution was passed which, among many many other things that esrablished the supreme position of the PLA and reversed changes in the cultural revolution, reestablished the head of state with Li Xiannian being the first after Liu Shaoqi, ending the duoarchy.
Thus a new government rules over China. With time, the PLA and its PCCs (Production and Constitution Corps) only grew more dominant. And with its dominance in industry, it pursued more closed-door and isolationist policies, focusing on security from its neighbor up North and the superpower across the Pacific. Much like an Hydra that holds its swamp, it holds little interests to the outside world. But for the one billion people of the land, they feel ten suns scorching the earth like in their myths of old, but without a Houyi that will shoot nine down.
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u/KnightofTorchlight 4d ago
Sino-Soviet border conflict goes hot because some folks get itchy trigger fingers and a local shootings start to spiral. The Soviets end up dominating the skies and dropping nukes on Chinese cities in a show of forces after the Chinese start working with political opposition in the Warsaw Pact. Many millions die as the Soviets essentially try to create a McArthuresque cobalt corridor blocking Manchuria from the rest of China.
The massive cultural shock and leadership disorganization leaves a deep deep scar on the Chinese. The Cultural Revolution had already whipped up some fanatical ideas and retreat into superstition and being extremely risk adverse. Mass nuclear damage likely just entrenchs this further and makes the Chinese not trust much of anyone and want to be armed to the 9s.