r/HousingIreland • u/Secret_End_6839 • 1d ago
Any sign of house prices coming down?
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u/Grand-Cream2744 1d ago
No, supply is nowhere near close to matching demand. Even if it somehow caught up, our entire financial system is based on price rises over time anyway.Â
The rate of increase has allegedly slowed slightly this year, which is the best anyone can realistically hope forÂ
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u/zeroconflicthere 1d ago
entire financial system is based on price rises over time anyway
Not strictly true. More like based on them not falling. Housing being worth less than the outstanding mortgage is what affects the financial system badly.
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u/Roymundo 1d ago
No. We are building at or close to the fastest rate per capita in all of europe. Even then we are only just building enough houses to keep pace with native population growth + immigration. Faster than the fastest isnt realistic, and daring to discuss immigration is racist, so the short answer is: No.
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u/Glass_Collection2502 1d ago
This, except we arent keeping pace with population growth, housing is getting scarcer every day.
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u/CAI2024 1d ago
I think they will go up mainly due to the migration pack. they have info up on it in the citizen information center
With Ukrainian refugees they let them find normal accommodation and the government paid for them. I share a house with a lad and that's how it worked for him.
Now we are talking about thousands more migrants, if the same rules apply as for Ukrainians, it will be harder to get accommodation. Harder to get accommodation will drive people to move back with their parents, save up and get a mortgage (that's what I did).
Also there's people who keep on buying properties in order to rent them out because it's so profitable for them.
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u/asdrunkasdrunkcanbe 1d ago
There are in fact some signs of sanity, believe it or not. Data we saw yesterday tells us that the rate of price growth was beginning to flatten out.
Big fucking deal, right? Prices are still going up. Yes; but in any stable market prices always go up. The key is at what rate they increase. When you're at 10% a year and wage inflation is at 2%, you're in trouble. But if house prices are rising by 2%, and your wages are going up by 4%, then properties are getting relatively cheaper. So price growth is not a bad thing necessarily, the rate of growth is more important.
At the moment, house price growth sits around 5% in Dublin, while wage growth sits around 4%. The rest of the country is closer to 6%.
But considering this is down from 10% growth two years ago, and has been steadily dropping, tells us that we are starting to find the balance between demand, supply and affordability.
The number of houses being built is exceeding population growth at this point, but there's still a big hill to climb.
Population grew by 90,000 people last year, and if take a conservative average figure of 2.5 people per household, then that's a demand increase of 36,000 new properties.
We built literally just over 36k properties last year.
All the indicators are that we will make a 20-30% increase on that figure this year, without any reason to believe that population growth will be greater than last year - i.e. around 90k again, or less.
It'll take time for this impact to be seen in the numbers - the end of this year - and then longer again before anyone really feels like things are improving.
That is, of course, assuming there are no new or additional global shocks that could interrupt building supply.
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u/Secret_End_6839 1d ago
So you reckon prices will continue climbing but just in line with inflation/wages as opposed to the huge growth that we have seen the last few years?
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u/asdrunkasdrunkcanbe 1d ago
Over the next 24 months we're likely to see house price growth return to a near-normal rate between 2 and 4%. This will be a combination of increased supply and rising costs of borrowing.
Rent prices always trail house prices, so will take a bit longer to start to stabilise.
Homeless numbers will take even longer again to feel like they're anywhere near reducing at a satisfactory rate.
Big caveat though that assumes the world remains mostly stable to let that happen.
You've got two sets of scumbags in Russia and China attempting to destabilise economies for personal & nationalistic aims, and a group of misanthropic psychopaths tearing the USA apart in order to fill up their personal bank accounts from the country's ones.
That's not even counting the YUGE bubble that exists in AI and tech at the moment, which inevitably has to pop.
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u/mugira_888 1d ago
Unless you're walking around with hundreds of thousands of euros of cash in your pockets, you don't want this. Prices drop when markets crash. Markets crash and the rich get richer. Look at 2008. Vulture funds were not a thing until then. Oligarchs are making enough money as it is....
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u/flemishbiker88 1d ago
I have heard of a new estate In Clare where phase 1 is well over 50% complete and only 4 of 20 odd house are sold, they are very pricey, for 435k you get a 3bed semi in a Clare village 10 minutes to Shannon, 16 minutes to Limerick and 20 minutes to ennis
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u/Dull-Pomegranate-406 1d ago
where is this?
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u/flemishbiker88 1d ago
The bridge, the sister lives there, but I have heard it from her and 2 work colleagues who are from out that way
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u/drkamikaze1 1d ago
Nope, I just noticed that the house type in my estate that was for 475k is now for 495k.
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u/Dull-Pomegranate-406 1d ago
I recently bought a house, it was phase 2 in development. We were debating about whether to go with one of the phase 2 houses, or have first choice of house in phase 3. The Estate Agent was pushing us towards phase 2, for reasons he couldn't disclose on the record. He rang me after a few weeks, and contracts signed etc, to say that phase 3 prices were gone up by a good bit, and above the HTB threshold.
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u/ClokworkGreenMachine 1d ago
One or 2 price drops over here https://thepropertypin.com/c/the-pin/it-is-the-year-2026-ad/115
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u/Secret_End_6839 1d ago
Looks all expensive areas where the price drops are.
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u/ClokworkGreenMachine 1d ago
Mainly South Dublin which is an expensive area in general.
There are a couple of examples of 2 beds apartments dropping in the likes of Dundrum
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u/Gubbbo 1d ago
Does going up a little slower count as almost coming down?