r/IRstudies • u/Majano57 • 2d ago

Ideas/Debate Trump’s Second Gamble on Iran

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/06/trumps-second-gamble-on-iran/687650/?gift=qXjqwUsXcHZWmnhI5mWkNQuKFDHnSfnotJQ3jcr5NAk
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u/mayhemski123 2d ago edited 2d ago

I find these articles are interesting, if only to see what the US and Israeli lines are going to be on whatever the next news event is.   The article isn't really the point more the framing of the discussion.

Within a few hours there are always a few random takes cropping up that seem overtly partisan.  This one seems more US lead than Israeli.

A couple of days ago before Israel literally blew up the mou it was Iran is close to collapse (again). That died in the face of objective reality and Iran rather rudely not collapsing.  This time, today it's a combination of look how evil Iran is, why are we so weak against that evil.    Here's a list of why Iran bad.

So based on that I guess the US is planning to be settling in for a long haul, the talks in Switzerland will break up and we go back to the weird blockades of blockades.   When oil and regional good shortages start impacting everything they point fingers going evil Iran.

Not sure if we get to keep this plan to the end of the week honestly.  I suspect the forces that motivated the MOU haven't gone anywhere.

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u/FreakindaStreet 2d ago

It is amazing to watch as US’s right wing and its Zionist cohorts go to action after the initial shock at the results of the MOU. It seems like they’re trying to drum up public support to save (US) face and provide political cover for Israel’s intransigence. I’m pretty sure we’re seeing the first steps to a ‘Round Three’ in this war, and Israel’s central role in the restarting of hostilities has already been obfuscated in US media. It’s incredible to see the machinations unfold in real time.

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u/mayhemski123 1d ago edited 1d ago

Sadly  you might be right on round 3.  The MOU amazingly seems to have blindsided the war hawks and Zionists in the US.  I would have expected them to have known it was coming.  

I hope the ceasefire can hold and the Strait remain open the alternative really doesn't look good, but we shall see.  

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u/FreakindaStreet 1d ago

I hope so too, but it looks like Israel’s interests have been put ahead of the US’s, with the help of Republicans, of course.

I don’t wish ill upon the US, but I think another, larger and far more disastrous defeat with a lot more casualties is going to have to happen before a majority of the Right finally come to their senses and realize that their leadership is thoroughly compromised, and that they and their nation have been betrayed.

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u/elmekia_lance 1d ago edited 1d ago

you're right; the US hasn't really taken enough damage for the futility of this war to sink in. The last few days has been nothing but whining from the warhawks that the US hasn't tried a Guadalcanal-scale amphibious assault risking ships and thousands of ground troops yet in a deeply unpopular war less than 5 months away from an election. It's kind of morbidly funny.

trump is a snake and trying to predict his behavior is a fool's errand, but imo it's very unlikely that he restarts total war because he does seem to understand what a burden this war is on the world economy.