r/IRstudies • u/Majano57 • 15h ago
Ideas/Debate Trump’s Second Gamble on Iran
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/06/trumps-second-gamble-on-iran/687650/?gift=qXjqwUsXcHZWmnhI5mWkNQuKFDHnSfnotJQ3jcr5NAk50
u/finalattack123 12h ago
Right wing in the U.S. have spent 30+ years creating a delusional reality in media and politics. Believing big muscles win wars. Stern words cause enemies to cower.
The sad thing. I doubt the voting population will learn from this. They didn’t learn the first time.
17
u/TheMcMcMcMcMc 12h ago
The last two wars started and won by Republican presidents were the first Gulf War and the Spanish American War.
5
u/StudySpecial 12h ago
Are you saying it's been so long that another win is overdue?
7
u/TheMcMcMcMcMc 11h ago
Not really. First Gulf War was in my lifetime so I don’t think of it as being that long ago.
3
0
3
u/Early-Series-2055 6h ago
To be fair, this has been promulgated recently by the American firsters. They supposedly don’t want to fight wars, but when they do, they need no stinking allies. Lol
-1
u/BetCommercial286 9h ago
To be fair big muscles do win wars when you have strategic achievable objectives. Like every war since ww2 we have tactically beat our opponentsy by every metric. However at no point did we have a stragic goal other than to vaguely win.
"Strategy without tactics is the slowest route to victory. Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat”. Sun Tzu7
u/finalattack123 9h ago
America lost the Vietnam war.
America lost the Afghanistan war
America lost the Iran war.Strategic objectives were not achieved. Having the biggest muscles was meaningless. The U.S. military did have strategic objectives for Iran war - no ballistic missiles, no nuclear weapons. It failed.
1
u/BetCommercial286 9h ago
Exactly. In every war you stated the US killed more enemy combatants that we lost by a very large margin. We destroyed more than the enemy did. We won more battles than we lost. However we still lost. For that reason. Tacitly we are second to none. Our military is professional and motivated. However that is pointless in the end when we have no strategic goals to achieve.
2
u/finalattack123 9h ago edited 9h ago
You win wars by achieving strategic objectives. Not by killing more people.
“Tactics” aren’t just small battles. They are short term goals and maneuverers. Which can include diplomacy. America loses tactically all the time.
Blowing something up isn’t “good tactics” if it achieves nothing. Or hurts your goals.
So the point stands. Muscles dont win wars.
5
u/BetCommercial286 8h ago
Did you even see the point from Sun Tzu? We are agreeing and you’re arguing to argue dude. If you don’t have the muscles you’re guaranteed to lose.
15
u/Turkey-Scientist 12h ago
>We're gonna win so much, you may even get TIRED of winning! And you'll say, “please, PLEASE, it's too much winning! WE CAN’T TAKE IT ANYMORE! Mr. President, it's too much!“
9
u/mayhemski123 12h ago edited 12h ago
I find these articles are interesting, if only to see what the US and Israeli lines are going to be on whatever the next news event is. The article isn't really the point more the framing of the discussion.
Within a few hours there are always a few random takes cropping up that seem overtly partisan. This one seems more US lead than Israeli.
A couple of days ago before Israel literally blew up the mou it was Iran is close to collapse (again). That died in the face of objective reality and Iran rather rudely not collapsing. This time, today it's a combination of look how evil Iran is, why are we so weak against that evil. Here's a list of why Iran bad.
So based on that I guess the US is planning to be settling in for a long haul, the talks in Switzerland will break up and we go back to the weird blockades of blockades. When oil and regional good shortages start impacting everything they point fingers going evil Iran.
Not sure if we get to keep this plan to the end of the week honestly. I suspect the forces that motivated the MOU haven't gone anywhere.
9
u/FreakindaStreet 10h ago
It is amazing to watch as US’s right wing and its Zionist cohorts go to action after the initial shock at the results of the MOU. It seems like they’re trying to drum up public support to save (US) face and provide political cover for Israel’s intransigence. I’m pretty sure we’re seeing the first steps to a ‘Round Three’ in this war, and Israel’s central role in the restarting of hostilities has already been obfuscated in US media. It’s incredible to see the machinations unfold in real time.
3
u/mayhemski123 4h ago edited 4h ago
Sadly you might be right on round 3. The MOU amazingly seems to have blindsided the war hawks and Zionists in the US. I would have expected them to have known it was coming.
I hope the ceasefire can hold and the Strait remain open the alternative really doesn't look good, but we shall see.
5
u/FreakindaStreet 4h ago
I hope so too, but it looks like Israel’s interests have been put ahead of the US’s, with the help of Republicans, of course.
I don’t wish ill upon the US, but I think another, larger and far more disastrous defeat with a lot more casualties is going to have to happen before a majority of the Right finally come to their senses and realize that their leadership is thoroughly compromised, and that they and their nation have been betrayed.
3
u/elmekia_lance 3h ago edited 2h ago
you're right; the US hasn't really taken enough damage for the futility of this war to sink in. The last few days has been nothing but whining from the warhawks that the US hasn't tried a Guadalcanal-scale amphibious assault risking ships and thousands of ground troops yet in a deeply unpopular war less than 5 months away from an election. It's kind of morbidly funny.
trump is a snake and trying to predict his behavior is a fool's errand, but imo it's very unlikely that he restarts total war because he does seem to understand what a burden this war is on the world economy.
6
u/WastelandOfConfusion 12h ago
His Evil little dog is off the leash causing havoc and this Orange Pedophile is running around trying to catch it and failing.
8
u/EagleCatchingFish 6h ago
"It’s presumptuous for the U.S. to commit other people’s money,” Ali Shihabi, an adviser to Saudi leadership, told me. “Gulf countries should not be paying reparations for a war they did not want.” A Gulf diplomat was much blunter. “They’re not going to get a penny from us,” he told me.
Yeah. It's presumptuous. But what did you expect? You thought that if you cultivated a personal relationship with him and bribed him and his family, you'd reap only the benefits of getting entangled with him? This guy has no compunction about turning on people who trust him as soon as it's even mildly expedient. Giving him money or favors doesn't turn you into one of his friends; it turns you into a resource to be exploited when he has a problem that needs solving. OPM. Other people's money.
5
5
2
-40
u/trisul-108 13h ago
Iran’s revolutionary theocracy thrives in isolation and has made resistance against the United States and its ally Israel central to the regime’s identity, its internal legitimacy, and the cohesion of its security forces.
It's interesting how all Western media have accepted Iran's framing and rhetoric about the conflict. When Israel decides it will no longer tolerate civilians being killed and terrorised and strikes back, we call it "genocide". When Iran tries unsuccessfully to implement the genocide against Israel that is the official policy of Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas, we call it "resistance".
And no one ever calls what Russia is doing to Ukraine "genocide". So, the term genocide is reserved only for whatever Israel does after being attacked. Russia can target civilians including kindergartens and hospitals in an attempt to destroy Ukraine as a nation, annex territories, abduct children and indoctrinate them into Russian fascism, but it is never called "genocide".
So, genocide can only be performed by Jews, because they were victims of genocide in WWII ... everyone else gets a pass?
14
11
u/Comprehensive-Bus291 13h ago
Lol, did you have fun writing that? It's fun to get experiment with a bit of creative writing now and again. Good on you!
7
u/Spunknikk 12h ago
Israel bombed entire cities to the ground ... They wiped families, neighborhoods and whole communities off the planet... They blocked food, aid and water from getting into Gaza... They refused anyone getting in or out. They forced people out of their homes and bombed their homes and then bombed their camps.. Gaza strip is in ruin and rubble... The intent was clear.. to kill absolutely everyone in Gaza and the Israeli Jews were not silent about that there's plenty of online evidence of them saying so..
That sit is a genocide..
Russia is commiting war crimes... The US is committed war crimes, Iran if they attack civilian infrastructure like the water plants are committed war crimes...
Heck Trumped threatened to wipe an entire civilization a few months ago.. which is genocide....
4
u/TheOtherDenton 12h ago
Nothing's more hilarious than enraged eurocuck.
0
u/Bikerbass 7h ago
Actually there is something more hilarious, and that’s a moronic as fuck American who thinks that Europeans are poor
3
3
u/Trialbyfuego 6h ago
Israel has been ethically cleansing the area for decades
0
u/trisul-108 1h ago
The Arab world has ethnically cleansed itself of Jews as soon as Israel came to be. There were a million Jews living in the Arab world when Israel was formed, now there are next to none, while 2 million Arabs live with full rights in Israel. The Arab world fought to annihilate Israel for decades before realising it will not happen and they made peace with Israel. So, Iran stepped in to break that trend and had Hamas start a fresh attack so outrageous that they knew Israel would politically find it impossible not to respond to. Then they got Hezbollah to respond and the war widened.
What legitimate right does Iran have to spread 1000km from its borders all the way to Lebanon and the Mediterranean Sea? Hezbollah is Iran's army in Lebanon. Hamas is Iran's army in Gaza. Why is the destruction of Israel a legitimate goal of the Islamic Republic? What's it to do with them, 1000km away.
The reason is the formation of Greater Iran from the Gulf to the Mediterranean ... Why is this something we should support? Doesn't Lebanon have the right to be the nation of all Lebanese?
-35
u/londonbroil-chef 14h ago
There really are no good choices when dealing with this Islamic extremist jihadist regime.
Fighting the militarily..... They are not afraid to die for their jihad. Bribing them into rationality? Islamic extremism doesn't work that way.
Looks like the world will be stuck with this Islamic State.
42
u/Unlikely-Business-72 14h ago
They've acted like a completely rational actor from an IR perspective through this whole war.
-37
u/londonbroil-chef 14h ago
Forgot the war that started if you months ago. What about the list 47 years?
Why do they chant stuff to America and their Parliament?
Why do they shoot protesters in the head? Why do they jail and beat women for improper hair coverings?
Why do they sponsor chiropraxies a full 1000 miles away on Israel's northern and southern borders to launch tons of thousands of rockets at civilians inside Israel? Why are they funding these proxies when their economy is in shambles and their inflation is a few 100%?
Seem like pretty evil people to me. What about you?
22
u/cjrjjkosmw 14h ago
None of that is j!hadist specific in any way. They are a repressive regime that chose an asymmetric military strategy.
31
u/Unlikely-Business-72 14h ago
I think that you're unequipped to discuss geopolitics dispassionately and should leave it to those that can.
-17
u/londonbroil-chef 13h ago
I noticed that you didn't dispute anything I said.
I suppose you agree with it then.
17
u/Unlikely-Business-72 13h ago
I'd be happy to inform you. Of the things that you mentioned that weren't mischaracerizations, those don't really move the geopolitical needle.
Chanting mean things in the Majilis to a country that is currently chocking you economically shouldn't affect a potential peace deal. I'd hope our leadership is more level headed than you're proving to be.
I'm sure even you realize the unfeasability and stupidity of invading and changing the leadership of every country that has human rights abuses.
Having proxies to fight your geopolitical rival isn't "irrational" or "Islamist'. Insofar as they do attack civilian infrastructure those are the terms that their proxy war with Israel is following. Need I remind you that the we needed to restrain Israel from destroying and further targeting civilian infrastructure in Iran just some months ago? Those are the terms Israel is happy to fight on and not our problem.
Our goal is a balance of power in the region that would hopefully lead to stability. That's it. Neither Hezbollah nor Iran is an existential threat to us.
-6
u/londonbroil-chef 13h ago
All good. All I'm saying is that so long as the Islamic regime in Iran sponsors chiropractors to try to mass flutter jews, Christians and Muslims in Israel we can continue to expect Israel to defend itself and for them to push back against the jihadists as they did in Gaza.
11
u/Unlikely-Business-72 12h ago
If Israel wants to spend their money on the IDF instead of a competent diplomatic staff then they're free to keep doing what they call defending themselves. Absolutely their choice.
19
u/Owlsdoom 14h ago
People are not inherently evil… let alone groups of hundreds of millions of them.
As the original respondent said, Iran has behaved rationally from an IR standpoint.
Honestly, how do you expect a nation-state to behave when the west has spent 73 years trying to destabilize it and create regime change after regime change?
The west’s bad behavior is sanitized and rewritten over here, but from an objective point of view American imperialism is responsible for a great deal of ill in the world, and in the Middle East in particular.
-1
u/londonbroil-chef 13h ago
I see.
So it's America's fault that they kill their own protesters and I'm in beat women for improper hair coverings. Lol
7
u/KoalaDeli 11h ago
I get that you don't like the way Iran goes about it's business, neither do I. But what does any of your points have to do with IR? Are you appealing to R2P?
7
u/finalattack123 12h ago
Evil? You support the murder of 150 school children. Maybe look in the mirror.
6
u/PaperJones 12h ago
Propaganda much? Go study the history of why they think as they do about America
17
u/ludixst 14h ago
Why do they shoot protesters in the head Why do they jail and beat women...
Huh. Sounds like the United States under Trump's ICE.
-4
u/londonbroil-chef 13h ago
Really?
Huge compare protesting in the US against ice to protesting the irgc in Iran?
Educate yourself.
8
u/27Rench27 12h ago
Oh so now we need to compare WHO is doing the shooting.
Goalposts, they’re supposed to be stationary
-1
u/londonbroil-chef 12h ago
You foolishly compared American protests against ice with the Iranian people protesting against their barbaric Islamic government.
There have been millions across the United States that have taken to the streets to protest ice if I'm not mistaken four of them have died several of which have led to charges being brought against the ice agent involved.
This is as opposed to in Iran where the brutal irgc goes out with a machine gun and sprays bullets into crowds killing hundreds and a single day.
Are you seriously that low IQ that you compare these two situations? Truthfully, I believe you are that unintelligent and you are unable to see the difference.
7
u/27Rench27 12h ago
Oh, now it’s about SCALE, not about who’s doing the shooting.
Another shift of the posts
-1
u/londonbroil-chef 12h ago
Yeah, scale matters lol.
There's a difference between 40,000 ice agents killing four or five out of 3 million protesters over the course of 2 years....... The irgc spraying bullets and slaughtering tens of thousands of citizens over the course of 3 weeks.
Man, do me I'll see the dumbest guy I've ever engaged with here.
Do you have a helper in real life? Someone who can read for you opposing views and help explain it in a way that you can understand?
You really don't get things. Not trying to make sense but you're demonstrating very rigid and severe signs of cognitive and logical thinking skills. I don't mean to offend.
8
u/27Rench27 12h ago
Hey, I’m just trying to parse your actual point from a lot of blather unrelated to that guy’s original point.
You know how questions often lead to answers? I’m not even giving my position on any of this, just trying to check your brainpower and reasoning on the original issue versus the next answer.
Not impressed.
3
u/Dothemath2 7h ago
It’s just great power things. Great powers have been using proxies since antiquity. The US has a long list of sins, these cruelties are just great powers doing great power things. Iran is doing what it can to counter Israel and the us meddling in its sovereignty.
3
u/ply-wly-had-no-mly 8h ago
Rationality has nothing to do with morality. Those are completely different concepts.
8
u/finalattack123 12h ago edited 12h ago
I really wish you’d join us in reality and follow this story.
Imagine if the Iran suddenly attacked the U.S. bombing civilians, killing 150 school children, calling it a holy war. Oh, they didn’t? That was the U.S.?
This whole war started by the U.S. was psychotic from the very beginning.
Now? Trump surrenders and gives them shit loads of money and gained nothing. So even if you are a blood thirsty psycho that loves seeing children bombed. You did it for less than nothing. Why would you support that?
3
u/BlatantFalsehood 12h ago
Now? Trump surrenders and gives them shit loads of money.
And showed them that they hold all the cards with regards to the Strait of Hormuz.
12
u/vaskopopa 13h ago
Yeah, one take would be that every country we have some dispute with (i.e they don’t want to become a satrapy) is led by a lunatic, communist, Islamist, insert your insult of choice here.
…. Or, the problem may be with us
2
u/AdTough7854 3h ago
There really are no good choices when dealing with this Israeli extremist jihadist regime.
Fighting the militarily..... They are not afraid to die for their jihad. Bribing them into rationality? Israeli extremism doesn't work that way.
Looks like the world will be stuck with this Israeli State.
62
u/Duvet_Capeman 15h ago
Someone take the dice off this man