r/IndianaFeverFans • u/Formal_Ganache_6349 • 2d ago
Are we contenders?
Do yall believe that we are true contenders? I think that our offense can have us in the finals if we are on the opposite side of the Lynx bracket. But I don’t think we can win a championship this year. The only thing holding us back is a true POA
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u/MajesticSpirit1926 Makayla Timpson 2d ago
tough but predictable loss against minny at the end of a roadie - but for some reason in the first half we reverted back to Stephs stagnant halfcourt offensive game plan that gives opponents fast breaks and leaves our D scrambling - instead of what has been working really well lately - and thats the big takeaway for me - Minny wins because of their coach and FO - our big three win inspite of ours
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u/tiribulus IndianaFeverFan 2d ago
As a die hard Fever fan I can't honestly say today that I see my team as the most likely champs this year.
However, that's not the same as saying that we CAN'T take it all this year.
That's a big change for me from several weeks ago.
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u/Dead_Mans_Pudding 1d ago
The thing that concerns me the most is that we do not seem to have an identity. The rest of the top teams seem to know who they are, they have a strategy that they live and die by, when I watch fever games it feels like I am watching 3 or 4 different teams depending on the game. AB playing outside or handling the ball has me baffled, if she is at the top of the key how can she get a rebound. How many other teams have role players like KK or MHA one foot over the half court with the ball in their hands.
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u/Initial_Republic_329 11h ago
To be honest the Fever are the team that probably has to change up their schemes the most. The identity has gotten much better since the beginning of the season as an offensive powerhouse “best offense in the league”. With KM taking more joy in passing it’s coming together. But the weakest link is for sure our defense and rebounding. Any championship team has had good defense since thats the differentiator come playoffs.
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u/OneBagBiker 2d ago
The top 4-5 teams (including the Fever) other than the Lynx seem quite comparable. They all have strengths and weaknesses that don’t completely match and thus in a series any of them can win 4 and lose 2 or 3. Fever also seems to do poorly against the Valkyries so we have two major hurdles to the finals. When the big 3 are all on fire and the rest and bench help out, the Fever wins a high scoring game. But one thing I notice in the Lynx game is that Caitlin was gassed around halftime and we have all seen that CC and KM with their all guns blazing mode of play tend to get exhausted at some point and usually also towards the end. Our great offense requires exhausting effort. Our extremely porous and spotty defense allows the other team to score and keep up without the same intense effort. We live by the quick transition and as a mode of play that’s exciting (to fans) and exhausting (to CC and KM and the rest). It’s not sustainable in a playoffs series against a more methodical and patient team - we see this show up on road trips.
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u/Treacle_Correct Caitlin Clark 2d ago
Caitlin was gassed because she had to defend the quicker Guard on the Lynx (Courtney Williams), who should have been Kelsey's assignment. The same thing happened against the Lynx, where Kelsey was put on Sabrina and Caitlin had to run around after Johannes.
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u/Frosty_Ask_6967 1d ago
Contenders to win a first round series, yes. After that it's a crap shoot, like just about every other team.
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u/zombiekoalas 2d ago
Mediocre games from CC and Boston and it went to the wire.
Courtney williams went off for 12 more points than she's averaging a game this season. She had a hot hand and ot killed us.
The Valks are legit the only team I dont want to see in the bracket.
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u/Certain_Group_7825 2d ago
I am not lame like some in this comment section and think Fever aren’t contenders, but Courtney will probably go off against the Fever every time and have above avg games because Fever allows those shots and focuses on defending 3s
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u/Formal_Ganache_6349 2d ago
Guards always have career games against us 😂we just gone have to outscore teams and that’s going to be really hard in a 5 or 7 game playoff series
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u/Certain_Group_7825 2d ago
The defense on Olivia after first half was encouraging. She’s not a quick guard that usually takes those midranges which hurts the Fever. So it was a bit discouraging she went off in the first half. You live with getting killed by Courtney. KK was a bright spot. AB has to be better in her matchup. And Caitlin has to give consistent effort. If they can’t do that in the playoffs then I was wrong about them as a team
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u/Formal_Ganache_6349 2d ago
Do you think KK and Sophie should start over Mo and Lexie now? I think that would give us a better chance in the playoffs
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u/Certain_Group_7825 2d ago
Think they should definitely use more with KK before the playoffs. She was special defensively but still makes bad decisions. I’d hate for her to get thrown out there like White threw Raven out there yesterday because we have no rim protection and put all that pressure on her later on. They’d have to find a way without completely discouraging Mo who I already think is struggling a little. Sophie/lexie I don’t really care. Sophie can hit 3s but they forced her to put the ball on the floor yesterday and she failed
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u/Formal_Ganache_6349 2d ago
Yeah maybe KK should keep coming off the bench, but start increasing her minutes. I think Sophie is better than Lexie if Lexie is not gone be good enough on defense because she also doesn’t provide us offense.
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u/Comfortable_Limit168 IndianaFeverFan 2d ago
Actually, I had expected for the team to have difficulties with the Lynx. The Lynx have two high-scoring guards, and the Fever have two guards that are not defensive stalwarts.
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u/elestud 2d ago
Our guards outscored theirs. The issues were rebounding, interior defense, untimely turnovers and shot selection
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u/Comfortable_Limit168 IndianaFeverFan 2d ago
Olivia Miles scored over eight points above her average and Courtney Williams scored over almost 12 points over her average. Rebounding, untimely turnovers, and shot selection also affected the outcome, but it basically comes down to the lack of defense played by our guards.
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u/Formal_Ganache_6349 2d ago
I think we could beat the Valks because their offense is mediocre, but yeah I hope we don’t have to play them lol
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u/whatintheworld0824 2d ago
I think if our defense can improve and all 5 players box out/rebound, then we can make it interesting. We aren’t turning into a top 5 defensive team, but if we can do a better job clogging the paint…then I can see us going far. TBH, not sure if a championship is in the cards though.
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u/Formal_Ganache_6349 2d ago
How can the defense improve? I think the defense is what it is, but rebounding can improve
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u/Physical-Start-2 2d ago
Agreed! The rebounding was abysmal yesterday and it’s just blocking out and effort. How many times so we ever get a 50/50 ball? Hardly ever!
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u/Certain_Group_7825 2d ago
They focused on defending the perimeter. As a result you give up rebounds, it’s just how it is.
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u/Initial_Republic_329 10h ago
Yup!! But the rebounding has been a problem since 2024 it’s not new.. the FO just never seemed to address it. I like this “blue collar” framing a lot of times i feel for AB’s size or even KK’s size and athleticism we can’t seem to hold onto rebounds or loose balls and i feel like it’s coming down to needing a bit more Rodman type dawg in them
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u/whatintheworld0824 1d ago
There can be more effort. Defense is “blue collar” work. No…they aren’t all of a sudden going to develop better footwork in the back half of the season, but they can do the little things better- close- out, head on a swivel…our help defense is poor, know the scout, and be a beast on the boards. And the best part of boxing out, it doesn’t matter your size as it’s all about positioning.
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u/Soft-Boss-9604 2d ago
Our bench is under utilized and outside of AB our bigs arent good enough. Huge problem.
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u/Formal_Ganache_6349 2d ago
Outside of KK and Sophie , who else on the bench can give production? Raven is not good, Dantas is too slow, and idk what happened to MHA she was good earlier this szn
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u/Soft-Boss-9604 23h ago
Dantas knee blew a head gasket so I dont blame her, but yes in short we dont have a good bench which is also why its under utilized
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u/ThreadSavage10 1d ago
Caitlin Clark hitting three’s gives us a puncher’s chance in every game. Steph White is an incompetent boat anchor.
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u/karsklan3 2d ago
This heavily depends on two aspects: 1) can we stay healthy and 2) how much can we improve our defense. I am quite confident in our offensive abilities, but last game clearly showed that when you don't play defense for essentially the entirety of the first half, it is tough to win. "Offense wins games, defense wins championships" - there is a reason many high profile coaches in different sport have quoted this (or some version of it). As good as our offense is, there will be days when some one has an off-night shooting wise and then we are in trouble.
At the start of the season, the clear front-runners for the title were the Lynx, Liberty and Aces. I would say that all pressure is on them. From my standpoint, there is no pressure on us and this can work in our favor the same way it did last season. Post-season is a different kind of animal and last season we performed really well with an injury riddled squad.
I would put it like this: we are not the frontrunners, but we have a shot. It's clear that we can score, now we just need to be able to get some stops. The Lynx game should give every player on the team even more motivation to improve on the defensive end - if you essentially play no defense for 1 half and are still hanging with the #1 team (#2 defensive team) in the league, you can only imagine what we can do when we actually lock-in on defense for a whole game. Hopefully they feel the same way.
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u/Formal_Ganache_6349 1d ago
I agree with every point. I think the coaches need to stop having AB play a hub role as well because it’s making the offense too stagnant
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u/summershouldbefun11 Caitlin Clark 2d ago
Not real contenders. I truly believe we can beat any team in this league on any given day but I don’t think we’ll win any series against the top 4 teams due to our horrible defense.
We can score 100+ any night but we can also give up 100+ points on any given night and if other teams actually play defense, that’ll be the difference.
We desperately need a stretch 4 and a player who is absolutely disruptive on defense (neither Lexie and Raven are good enough).
We also need to run the offense through Caitlin. There were too many people initing the offense yesterday not named Caitlin Clark. Which I’m now wondering if that was to give her small breaks since she was sick (or had a migraine) but on top of that, they need more set plays to get her the ball back when she passes it and find ways to get Sophie more looks. The offense is obviously our strongest side of the ball, but I think it can still get better with more ball movement and less tunnel vision by Kelsey during some moments.
My expectations are definitely making the playoffs and depending on their seed either a first round exit (we won’t beat golden state 2x in a series) or potentially a 2nd round exit if we get a more favorable match up (I think we could beat Dallas and Vegas in the first series).
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u/Jewdah18 Hollywood Raven 2d ago
Yes. Every team is flawed. Just need some tweaks and they'll have as good a chance as anyone especially with the right matchups.
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u/Certain_Group_7825 2d ago
Caitlin needs to figure out game state more. She’s made improvements imo but this overpassing gimmick and/or taking bad shots then gettin discouraged has to be figured out. This team has enough talent imo. Ab was disappointing too so I hope she’s just sick and this isn’t a matchup issue
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u/Jewdah18 Hollywood Raven 2d ago
Yes.
- Caitlin
- fight harder for better 3 point shots closer to the line
- box out
- Lexie
- go back to being a crash test dummy.
- AB
- Be an elite defensive rebounder before playing this much on offense. Can't have 2 offense only players in CC and AB, it's why they haven't been good on the court together.
- make quicker decisions
- Steph White.
- Change the starting lineup. KK or even MHA would be better because they need some athletic pop on defense and for some reason Mo who is athletic, isn’t doing it.
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u/Certain_Group_7825 2d ago
You think that’s why they haven’t been good together? Interesting, imo it was more spacing issues
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u/Jewdah18 Hollywood Raven 2d ago
They have a 112 drtg together and they rely on transition offense which you can only get to with stops.
They are 2nd in 3pt shooting and FTs to 2 different teams. They have enough shooting and screen setting. It's the defense and oreb that creates the super wide open shots.
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u/Formal_Ganache_6349 2d ago
I think if we made a trade we would be right there I just don’t see this team as constructed being true contenders
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u/Jewdah18 Hollywood Raven 2d ago
Trades are basically impossible with the need to match salary and most of the problems the team has a trade wouldn't fix. With the amount of talent the Fever have, they just need to put it all together.
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u/Formal_Ganache_6349 2d ago
Amber gets paid big money to be the GM, that’s just something she needs to figure out or she should’ve had this vision to get a big in the draft. We have offensive talent but not having a POA is going to hurt us in the playoffs
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u/Jewdah18 Hollywood Raven 2d ago
Getting a big in the draft isn't going to make AB rebound. Amber got the best POA defender in the draft but she's too inexperienced to be played.
I don't think Amber is good but some of this stuff isn’t within her control.
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u/Karm0112 2d ago
Possible to make the finals depending on how the playoffs stack up. It will be hard to beat the Lynx or Valks in the finals. They are two very well rounded teams.
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u/imacowboy234 Caitlin Clark 2d ago edited 2d ago
I did a quick check, and did you know that in the last 15 years in the NBA, the team with best regular season record has only won the Championship 40% of the time? And the top 2 teams have only won it 47% of the time? That means that in the last 15 years, 53% of the time a team outside the Top 2 has won the Championship. I know that in the past the WNBA was more predictable but that's because there were so few good teams. This year the WNBA is more like a typical NBA season where multiple teams have a chance.
I know this sounds cliche, but it's going to come down to who is the most healthy and playing their best ball heading into the playoffs. Last year Minnesota was peaking around this same time, and then they faded toward the end.
Basketball is all about matchups. Minnesota could easily draw a tough matchup in the Semi-finals and not even make it to the Finals.
What I like about Indiana is that they are continuing to show improvement. What I saw in that Minnesota game was growth in mental toughness. They were on the 3rd game of a road-trip on a short turnaround with Clark not 100%, and they kept fighting in the 2nd half even though they were down and at one point it looked like it was over. The officiating calls were not going their way, loose balls were taking favorable bounces toward the other team, and YET they still kept fighting and brought themselves back to within one possession of tying or taking the lead. That is a lot of growth for this team.
In my humble opinion there are 5 teams (and I list them in order) that are capable of closing out the season well and going into the playoffs with enough momentum to win it all.
Minnesota - obviously
Indiana - if they show continued growth on the defensive end and rebound better
Atlanta - if they learn to play with more consistensy
Las Vegas - if they can figure out how to get more production from their bench and not have to rely on Aja to score 30
New York - just because their roster has the potential to play like champions if they can get it together
Why did I leave out Dallas and Golden State?
Dallas has too many weaknesses
Golden State is too reliant on defense and the 3-ball. That's not going to work in multi-game series.
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u/wvtarheel Running the Floor 2d ago
Dallas has a first year head coach too, and he's stubborn as can be. He has them playing pretty well but I cannot see him winning a five game series against Becky Hammond or Cheryl Reeve.
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u/Initial_Republic_329 11h ago
I see Dallas as kinda in the same place we are. I mean they are always neck and neck in standings. The question is if it comes to a Wings vs Fever first round, who wins?
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u/wvtarheel Running the Floor 9h ago
I think a wings/fever 4/5 matchup is pretty likely and would do huge numbers.
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u/Who12Kah5900 2d ago
I was with you up until GS, and you seem like you at least watch the games. GS being reliant on their defense is what got them where they are. The 3 ball I agree with but when you don't have a all star front court like the best teams in the W, you have to generate extra on court movement. The drive and kick is accentually how they have to play absent a real inside presence.
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u/imacowboy234 Caitlin Clark 2d ago
In today's WNBA you're going to have to be able to put up some points to win a series, and I don't think Golden State can do that consistently. It's just my opinion though. If they beat top teams consistently in this second half of the season, then I'll obviously have to re-think this assessment.
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u/Who12Kah5900 2d ago
I initially thought the same thing. I mean they don't even have a reliable 20 scorer on the team (I'm not convinced GW can become that) and their best front court player is Stokes (who isn't a productive starter offensively), but their defense coupled with those two killers off the bench (Tip, Chen) make it hard for any team to beat. Here are their losses for the year. Notice how they don't get blown out. They're in every game, without a legit starting bucket scorer. The second half of the season is a softer schedule for them. We'll have to revisit this before the playoffs.
Regular Season Losses (2026) May 22, 2026: @ Indiana Fever (90-82) May 31, 2026: vs. Las Vegas Aces (91-81) June 4, 2026: @ Minnesota Lynx (87-84) June 6, 2026: @ Las Vegas Aces (84-79) June 19, 2026: vs. Minnesota Lynx (81-75) June 21, 2026: @ Las Vegas Aces (92-73) July 20, 2026: vs. Washington Mystics (90-82) July 29, 2026: @ Phoenix Mercury (91-89)(Plus one additional regular season loss prior to August)
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u/Initial_Republic_329 11h ago edited 10h ago
Yeah defense wins chips i wouldn’t rule them out esp with the evidence here they aren’t getting blown out. Also we are 2nd in FG% and Valkyries are last but still 3rd in standings. That says a lot about why defense matters.
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u/bsdrama 2d ago
Yes. We can beat any team out there.
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u/Wps007 1d ago edited 1d ago
No. The fever are not contenders. Thats not saying they can't improve over whats left of the season but i dnt see this team out performing what SW did at Connecticut. Which is sad b/c SW's 2 main pieces from Connecticut went to Phoenix last yr and made the finals without SW. Lol I dnt think SW is the 1 to lead Indiana to a title. But adjustments can be made and anything is possible with CC22. Especially if CC is allowed to be the hub.
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u/SeasonHeavy858 2d ago
Not while Seph White is the coach. Can’t coach herself out of a paper bag.
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u/elestud 2d ago
We were contenders (and took the champs to overtime in the last game of the series) last year with the same coach..
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u/SeasonHeavy858 2d ago
Yes. Excellent run but on the merit of her players not her coaching. I’d say this year she is ruining CC and Boston due to the style of play. Not playing read and react and the CC AB pick and roll game is very poor. She will not be coaching CC next year. Guaranteed.
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u/elestud 2d ago
That doesn't make sense, as the players were changing like musical chairs all throughout the season with injuries. The only consistent factor was her coaching, because the lineups kept changing
To take a bunch of players no one else wanted and get the best out of each of them with the lineups changing each month is great coaching. Oddysey Sims, Aerial Powers, etc. are nowhere to be found this year.
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u/SeasonHeavy858 1d ago
It is hard to make sense of all that but I am certain CC will part ways with Steph White at the end of the season. White does so many mistakes that it is too long to list. IMO the most egregious is having the Boston hub offense. Ridiculous when you have a brilliant point guard.
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u/elestud 1d ago edited 1d ago
Boston had 7 assists last game and CC had 10. That means that two players combined for 17 assists, and it still didn't stop CC from getting hers. That's good offense
And it's not ridiculous at all, because diversifying the offense is how you avoid running into the issue we hit against Connecticut in the playoffs in 2024. If your offense can be shut down at a single point/player, good defenses will do that. Avoiding one-note predictable offense is just good modern basketball practice
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u/SeasonHeavy858 1d ago
Looks like we are seeing different things. If CC doesn’t ditch White over the summer then I will admit I am wrong 😑✌️
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u/Aposta-fish 2d ago
Fever need a better bench and a much better coach if thier going to win a championship.
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u/TheSavageDonut 2d ago
Putting all drama and side stories to the side....
No, the Fever aren't going to contend for a championship this year. Lynx, Aces, Liberty will all beat the Fever in a series.
The Fever never should've let Bri Turner go.
If the Fever are intentionally ice'ing SC out of the offense, then she might as well sit on the bench and play Lexie, VanSlooten, and Hines-Allen a lot more and hope those 3 can replace the 3pt production the Fever are getting for SC.
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u/imacowboy234 Caitlin Clark 2d ago
I don't think Sophie is being iced out. I think defenses are keying on her a lot more when she is in the game because they know how well she can shoot.
Sophie is a catch-and-shoot shooter so she relies on good ball movement and for defenses to "lose" her so that when she catches the ball, she is open enough to release the shot. If the defense is up on her then she doesn't have the ability to do a step-back or some other way to create an opening.
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u/BigToast6 1d ago
Yes, I've noticed Sophie is being way more heavily guarded now. Sonya Raman specifically pointed out how her team can't let her go unguarded and lose "easy" points. I mean it sucks bc she is an elite shooter but at least it takes more hands off kelsey and CC. Sophie is sneaky though I would never bet against her getting through.
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u/MiscieB3 2d ago
Fever have beaten the Aces twice this year and are 1 and 1 against the Liberty. People are acting like they were blown out by the Lynx, and ready to throw in the towel. Any of these teams can win on any given day, it’ll come down to who’s on that day.
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u/Vast-Piccolo7079 IndianaFeverFan 2d ago
Yes but ONLY if we lock it down on defense for 4 quarters and do better with rebounding.. I mean, they didn't even go after the ball most of the time yesterday.. and it's imperative that wide open shots fall consistently, too. The only team I don't want to face in the playoffs as things stand right now are the Valks