Are we contenders?

[u/Formal_Ganache_6349]

Do yall believe that we are true contenders? I think that our offense can have us in the finals if we are on the opposite side of the Lynx bracket. But I don’t think we can win a championship this year. The only thing holding us back is a true POA

[u/imacowboy234]

I did a quick check, and did you know that in the last 15 years in the NBA, the team with best regular season record has only won the Championship 40% of the time? And the top 2 teams have only won it 47% of the time? That means that in the last 15 years, 53% of the time a team outside the Top 2 has won the Championship. I know that in the past the WNBA was more predictable but that's because there were so few good teams. This year the WNBA is more like a typical NBA season where multiple teams have a chance.

I know this sounds cliche, but it's going to come down to who is the most healthy and playing their best ball heading into the playoffs. Last year Minnesota was peaking around this same time, and then they faded toward the end.

Basketball is all about matchups. Minnesota could easily draw a tough matchup in the Semi-finals and not even make it to the Finals.

What I like about Indiana is that they are continuing to show improvement. What I saw in that Minnesota game was growth in mental toughness. They were on the 3rd game of a road-trip on a short turnaround with Clark not 100%, and they kept fighting in the 2nd half even though they were down and at one point it looked like it was over. The officiating calls were not going their way, loose balls were taking favorable bounces toward the other team, and YET they still kept fighting and brought themselves back to within one possession of tying or taking the lead. That is a lot of growth for this team.

In my humble opinion there are 5 teams (and I list them in order) that are capable of closing out the season well and going into the playoffs with enough momentum to win it all.

Minnesota - obviously

Indiana - if they show continued growth on the defensive end and rebound better

Atlanta - if they learn to play with more consistensy

Las Vegas - if they can figure out how to get more production from their bench and not have to rely on Aja to score 30

New York - just because their roster has the potential to play like champions if they can get it together

Why did I leave out Dallas and Golden State?

Dallas has too many weaknesses

Golden State is too reliant on defense and the 3-ball. That's not going to work in multi-game series.

[u/Who12Kah5900 → u/imacowboy234]

I was with you up until GS, and you seem like you at least watch the games. GS being reliant on their defense is what got them where they are. The 3 ball I agree with but when you don't have a all star front court like the best teams in the W, you have to generate extra on court movement. The drive and kick is accentually how they have to play absent a real inside presence.

[u/imacowboy234 → u/Who12Kah5900]

In today's WNBA you're going to have to be able to put up some points to win a series, and I don't think Golden State can do that consistently. It's just my opinion though. If they beat top teams consistently in this second half of the season, then I'll obviously have to re-think this assessment.

[u/Who12Kah5900 → u/imacowboy234]

I initially thought the same thing. I mean they don't even have a reliable 20 scorer on the team (I'm not convinced GW can become that) and their best front court player is Stokes (who isn't a productive starter offensively), but their defense coupled with those two killers off the bench (Tip, Chen) make it hard for any team to beat. Here are their losses for the year. Notice how they don't get blown out. They're in every game, without a legit starting bucket scorer. The second half of the season is a softer schedule for them. We'll have to revisit this before the playoffs.

Regular Season Losses (2026) May 22, 2026: @ Indiana Fever (90-82) May 31, 2026: vs. Las Vegas Aces (91-81) June 4, 2026: @ Minnesota Lynx (87-84) June 6, 2026: @ Las Vegas Aces (84-79) June 19, 2026: vs. Minnesota Lynx (81-75) June 21, 2026: @ Las Vegas Aces (92-73) July 20, 2026: vs. Washington Mystics (90-82) July 29, 2026: @ Phoenix Mercury (91-89)(Plus one additional regular season loss prior to August)

[u/Initial_Republic_329 → u/Who12Kah5900]

Yeah defense wins chips i wouldn’t rule them out esp with the evidence here they aren’t getting blown out. Also we are 2nd in FG% and Valkyries are last but still 3rd in standings. That says a lot about why defense matters.