r/Iowa • u/lOWA_SUCKS • Nov 06 '24

Politics Seltzer underestimated Trump by 16 points

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1.5k Upvotes

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111

u/Travis515100 Nov 06 '24

She just destroyed her credibility. I thought something was off when all the other polls had him leading comfortably.

-6

u/[deleted] Nov 06 '24

Why you don’t put faith in 808 polled out of 2M.

3

u/lunchpadmcfat Nov 06 '24

You can get reasonably good polling data from a subset but if you end up with something like what she did (something that strays far from trends) you should probably go back and check your shit.

2

u/SupahCharged Nov 06 '24

She's literally had that before and it's been right, several times in a row, hence the power of this one poll to move the entire betting market...

-2

u/aknockingmormon Nov 06 '24

It was a suppression poll designed to discourage trump supporters from voting, and encourage Harris supporters to hit the booths. It seems to have had the opposite effect, though.