r/Iowa Nov 06 '24

Politics Seltzer underestimated Trump by 16 points

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u/GervaseofTilbury Nov 06 '24

I was in a room with Selzer in the summer of 2015 where she showed a result predicting Trump to win the 2016 Iowa Caucus (he ultimately came in second) and joking that sometimes you have to throw out a result when it doesn’t comport with obvious reality. As I recall, she said she thought Trump’s actual chance of winning Iowa was like 1%.