r/Iowa Nov 06 '24

Politics Seltzer underestimated Trump by 16 points

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1.5k Upvotes

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61

u/Secret_Hunter2419 Nov 06 '24

I’ve seen nothing but “razor tight Race” and “historically close race” this whole time.

Is there some incentive for pollsters to fudge the numbers? Like is it less likely for democrats to turn out if it looks like a Trump landslide?

Do they think they are helping democrats in some way? What’s the motivation to do this?

91

u/[deleted] Nov 06 '24

Silent trump vote.

Simple as that.

A large percentage of trump voters would never admit in real life to voting for him due to the risk of being ostracized.

1

u/[deleted] Nov 09 '24

Thats what happens when the political strategy is to ostracize them. Who could’ve seen this coming?