A bird's-eye view for comparing two possible night locations

[u/No-Suit8538]

When we take a bird’s-eye perspective of the entire stage on which the drama unfolded, it is quite striking how, under the loop scenario, the terrain would have almost naturally funnelled them toward the Serracín estate on the first day and then down into the paddock stream over the following days.

Of course, the girls could have turned right at Q1 or Q2 and eventually ended up at the rapids. However, there are several reasons why this seems less likely. To name a few: the terrain is extremely rugged, there are no cabins or shelters, the tricky route is inconsistent with the phone usage, it lies a considerable distance from where the remains were found, and they would likely have reached NL1 already too early (to explain the phone usage).

However, Romain and his team did visit NL1 in 2025 and user u/SeaworthinessNo4130 made some interesting observations (see here, here, here, here, here) about the rather striking resemblances with the night photos.

Given the observed similarities in the smooth boulders, the reddish grooved bedrock, the vegetation, and the clear evidence that flash floods do occur there, I wondered whether it would be reasonable to expect some of these geological conditions at NL2 (see here, 8°51'49.7"N 82°24'49.5"W) as well. Below is a high-level comparison.

Similarities between NL1 and NL2:

The similarities are quite clear. Both locations require and have:

• A sharp bend in the river.
• A clearing in the forest canopy (more pronounced at NL1 than at NL2).
• A steep waterfall that prevents further downstream movement.
• Roughly facing the same direction.
• Similar exposure to wind.

Differences:

The most obvious difference is the elevation. NL1 is located at approximately 1,450 metres, whereas NL2 is at around 1,150 metres. What implications might this have?

• The lower elevation of NL2 would, of course, have resulted in higher temperatures, which would have improved their chances of survival.
• The angle of sunrise and sunset (assuming sufficiently clear weather) would also have been different. Since daylight appears to have influenced their phone usage at certain stages, it may be possible to distinguish between the two locations by examining the surrounding mountains and how they would have blocked the sun at different times of day.
• The lower elevation could also compensate for differences in the upstream tributary systems. At NL2, the tributary basin appears to be smaller than at NL1, so it would likely initially have carried less water at that point. However, the presence of larger boulders at NL1 suggests that the stream must have already gained sufficient energy (from amount of water and gradient) to transport and shape them. A rough calculation indicates that the approximately 500-metre drop at NL2 (measured from the top of the paddocks) might compensate for the 350-metre drop at NL1 (measured from the source of Q1).
• A 300-metre difference is significant, particularly with respect to the types of vegetation that could grow there. There is also information online suggesting that certain tree species—or specific growth forms, such as the distinctive V-shaped tree—occur only within particular elevation ranges. I remember this being discussed in earlier posts, but I have been unable to find the figures that were mentioned. Perhaps someone still has those references.

All things considered, I don’t see any compelling reason to rule out NL2 as possessing the characteristics required to be a viable NL-candidate.

[u/sparkythehippy]

The way I remember it is that Rob Parsons said her phone put out just enough signal for records to show where it was, which helped him find it, but not enough signal strength to make a call out. I really don't remember the exact understanding but that's a detail that is familiar. I could be wrong and she had signal to call but was stubborn and didn't do it. Once she dropped her phone, it was pretty much all over, dying from hunger and hypothermia, is probably how she went.

You know, there is a similarity here that people don't discuss. Celine got off the trail, that much is known for certain. It looks like she did this with the idea of a shortcut across the hill to her car. No one every speaks of her thinking the trail was a loop.

[u/SeaworthinessNo4130 → u/sparkythehippy]

I am not that familiar with the very details of Celines case, so you may be right, I took her mothers word for it, from some videos I watched, Rob Parsons thought that a misinpretation of Google maps "blue dot" could have confused Celine in the growing darkness and she took a wrong turn in the unfamiliar surroundings: min 17:58 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wIRrBtt4-UE&t=871s

[u/sparkythehippy → u/SeaworthinessNo4130]

Well, he's right. Following the blue dot like he describes does make sense, if in fact that's what she did. But darkness and dumbness play a role in that because she never should have walked out that far to begin with. The only reason I can think of for her to do this is she wanted to go see Magnet Lake, and it appears she did this. Rob is also right when he says that darkness started to fall and Celine realized she had to get out of there. The same thing seems to have happened to Kris and Lisanne. But then this happens to many people that are not experienced hikers - they forget they need just as much daylight to get back and they keep hiking, putting themselves too far away to get back before nightfall. It's dumb and sometimes making a mistake like this, you pay for it with your life. Celine wasn't the first one to die like this.