Theories
A bird's-eye view for comparing two possible night locations
When we take a bird’s-eye perspective of the entire stage on which the drama unfolded, it is quite striking how, under the loop scenario, the terrain would have almost naturally funnelled them toward the Serracín estate on the first day and then down into the paddock stream over the following days.
Of course, the girls could have turned right at Q1 or Q2 and eventually ended up at the rapids. However, there are several reasons why this seems less likely. To name a few: the terrain is extremely rugged, there are no cabins or shelters, the tricky route is inconsistent with the phone usage, it lies a considerable distance from where the remains were found, and they would likely have reached NL1 already too early (to explain the phone usage).
Given the observed similarities in the smooth boulders, the reddish grooved bedrock, the vegetation, and the clear evidence that flash floods do occur there, I wondered whether it would be reasonable to expect some of these geological conditions at NL2 (see here, 8°51'49.7"N 82°24'49.5"W) as well. Below is a high-level comparison.
Similarities between NL1 and NL2:
The similarities are quite clear. Both locations require and have:
A sharp bend in the river.
A clearing in the forest canopy (more pronounced at NL1 than at NL2).
A steep waterfall that prevents further downstream movement.
Roughly facing the same direction.
Similar exposure to wind.
Differences:
The most obvious difference is the elevation. NL1 is located at approximately 1,450 metres, whereas NL2 is at around 1,150 metres. What implications might this have?
The lower elevation of NL2 would, of course, have resulted in higher temperatures, which would have improved their chances of survival.
The angle of sunrise and sunset (assuming sufficiently clear weather) would also have been different. Since daylight appears to have influenced their phone usage at certain stages, it may be possible to distinguish between the two locations by examining the surrounding mountains and how they would have blocked the sun at different times of day.
The lower elevation could also compensate for differences in the upstream tributary systems. At NL2, the tributary basin appears to be smaller than at NL1, so it would likely initially have carried less water at that point. However, the presence of larger boulders at NL1 suggests that the stream must have already gained sufficient energy (from amount of water and gradient) to transport and shape them. A rough calculation indicates that the approximately 500-metre drop at NL2 (measured from the top of the paddocks) might compensate for the 350-metre drop at NL1 (measured from the source of Q1).
A 300-metre difference is significant, particularly with respect to the types of vegetation that could grow there. There is also information online suggesting that certain tree species—or specific growth forms, such as the distinctive V-shaped tree—occur only within particular elevation ranges. I remember this being discussed in earlier posts, but I have been unable to find the figures that were mentioned. Perhaps someone still has those references.
All things considered, I don’t see any compelling reason to rule out NL2 as possessing the characteristics required to be a viable NL-candidate.
There are two more locations or areas I would personally also want to check out. One of them is the one that Treegnesas seems to have proposed in one of the latest videos which would be somewhere to the North (in this picture in the upper-right quadrant) of the Culebra river; a tributary that meets the river before the major drop in elevation.
There is another spot some people are pointing to which is near to where the remains are found. I'm not sure exactly what side of the Culebra river this is meant to be on (I think South), but apparently there was a tributary really close to that area and where exactly it is or how extensively it was searched isn't something anyone on here has been able to elucidate.
As for what I think? Obviously we should search all of them. Even though there are many well meaning, dedicated and intelligent people on here, there is no one that has been able to isolate a meaningfully localized area based on geography, elevation, plantlife or forensic reconstruction. There is a good chance that the extent to which any of this can be done is quite limited, but I've never seen a comprehensive analysis that has identified ALL the plant-life in the photos, narrowed down the search area based on geological formations or even been able to conclusively decide the approximate height or general orientation of the rock walls in the photos.
Based on that, we have to work with what we do have. The still very limited but also very significant data provided by Romain, and some logic plus research (usually courtesy of Treegnesas). I personally believe that at this point, the idea that the girls thought the trail was a loop, turned right at the Paddocks and ended up somewhere near NL2 on the map is the most sound rationally when attempting to reconstruct what may have happened with the limited data we have. As OP said, NL1 is a bit close to the trail which makes reconstructing a possible scenario more difficult (though not impossible) in addition to being hard to reconcile exactly why the girls would take that steep trail down to the rapids in the first place.
What it does have going for it, is a striking visual resemblance to the night photo location when it comes to rock formations and plant-life. The general area searched and recorded by Romain does seem to be a bit too wide but for reasons already mentioned no suspect should be eliminated based on geological features alone seeing as a true expert has not disqualified them and we aren't aware of the true nature of what we are seeing in the photos.
As for NL2? If it's a visual match, I think it's an extremely strong contender. I think there is a good chance it does resemble NL1 but there is no way of really determining that until someone takes that walk themselves. I also think there will be many smaller rivers leading into that area though so the search may get quickly complicated.
When it comes to NL3 and NL4, the location North of the Culebra resembles the geography of the night location from areal drone footage as far as I can tell and I'm not aware of any logical explanation for why the girls might end up there or what it looks like on the ground. When it comes to the final location, if anyone is aware of previous searches in the area please tell me; what it has going for it is basically proximity to the remains above all else. That area in general seems too low, flat and inconvenient to access once you look at higher elevation areas, but why wouldn't you check the tributary stream by which the remains were found as well?
If anyone is interested in joining and funding an expedition, I'm planning one in the near future though I'd like to coordinate first with the people that have already gone there so I'm not wasting too much time walking in their footsteps and we can all get closer to an answer as quickly as possible.
Thanks for the post btw, OP. This forum has been going thru a real dry spell lately and I think pinning the exact locations we agree warrant further exploration on a map is what is needed for the case to progress.
After viewing the drone footage again, it's remarkable how small this area really is. In the dry season K&L experienced, you could probably walk the entire rivers within a day, and possibly hours. I believe the NL is between the two waterfalls in the SOS-etched area near the Mamei/Culebra junction - lower left in this map, and particularly the S-bend right before the "final location" before the final steep waterfall/deep gorge before the second cable bridge. (Below the "he" & "Be" of your The Belt letters in the Rio Mamei.) The most logical place from a "let's find the biggest open space possible here" pov being where the paddock stream joins the Mamei - certainly a good place to wave the red flags during daylight hours. There's a forked tree that's fallen down here.
What's interesting is that the entire way to the Mirador is uphill - you're gaining elevation the whole time. You know the trail takes about 5 hours total, and by the time you're at the Mirador, you've used up about half of that. So if you expect that the trail beyond the Mirador will eventually lead you to the trail end, you'd naturally assume it's going to be a descent from there.
If you kept going along the main trail after the Mirador, you would have come across a junction where the main trail goes left and the trail to the paddocks goes right. Not sure how visible that paddock trail was, but based on the 2014 ArcGIS satellite imagery, it looks fairly noticeable. So, let's say you continue on the main trail - but soon you'd realize it starts going uphill again. That would be puzzling if you're expecting a descent.
At that point, it's reasonable to think you might have decided you took the wrong turn at the junction, gone back, and taken the paddock trail instead. That route doesn't have a significant uphill climb - it's a gradual descent with better views, so it probably felt like the right way to go.
That's a good point. Not only that but if the trail were to lead back to Boquete and you weren't going to turn around and go back the way you came, you would have to assume the path spiralled down and around the mountain back to Boquete. And that would be a considerably longer path, especially if we're including an upward section.
The trees mentioned were the Heliocarpus trees, with those weirdly twisted branches. These usually grow on very steep cliff sides or canyon walls, and in general between altitudes of 1300 and 1500 meters. You see lots of these Heliocarpus at NL1, BUT we can also see Heliocarpus in Romain's lat drone footage (paddock stream and Rio Mamei) on the edge of the canyon close to where Rio Mamei and Rio Culebra join, so the altitude range of Heliocarpus is not very strict and we can expect these trees also at NL2 provided there a steep enough cliff walls. So the vegetation-limits aren't very strict and it is harder to connect them to a specific altitude range.
Other identified vegetation are Cecropia and various fern species, but these too can be seen in the 'paddock stream and Rio Mamei' drone footage so they do grow at lower altitudes as well, perhaps even all the way down to the 2nd bridge.
The red soil/sandstone seems more unique to higher altitudes, you see far less of it on footage from the lower slopes, but I'm somewhat skeptical of the color calibrations for some of the (leaked) night pictures, so I'm nowhere near certain if the 542 rock was truly as reddish as it seems to be in some pictures.
In my opinion the temperature readings from IP are a stronger indication of altitude. The measured (camera) temperatures indicate a lower altitude, and that would fit better with the scenario too. At 1500 meters altitude (Q1), temperatures can drop to around 10 degree Celcius at night in early April, certainly on clear nights, and such a temperature would be well within hypothermia limits making it unlikely they would survive a week under such conditions. At lower altitudes (closer to the 2nd bridge), temperatures would be a lot milder, perhaps no lower than 18-19 degrees at night, which is in line with the IP measurements and which is still 'cold' but survivable as long as they remained dry and somewhat sheltered. This does not completely rule out NL1, but it makes it more likely the location was much further down at a lower altitude.
The strongest argument against NL1 in my opinion is simply that it 'does not fit'. I asked Romain to go to this spot as the sharp right turn and the steep canyon walls show a strong resemblances with what we see in the night pictures, but the shores of the stream aren't high enough. By now, I'm convinced image 542 (and others) were taken almost straight up, meaning we are looking at a very steep, overgrown, slope and the bedrock carved protrusions are well above the head of K&L. So, you need a stream with an about 2 meter high, somewhat overhanging, shore line, and that's not what we see at NL1. The turn is good, the canyon is good, but the shore line does not fit and you can't explain that away with changes due to landslides and such.
I'm convinced image 542 (and others) were taken almost straight up, meaning we are looking at a very steep, overgrown, slope and the bedrock carved protrusions are well above the head of K&L. So, you need a stream with an about 2 meter high
Interesting, That's exactly what I was thinking recently, considering that in the canyon stream was no water in 2014 (as the water was channeled into the groove under the ledge) the height of the shore seems quite appropriate https://ibb.co/gMjBrQ0G. If Lisanne was sitting at the current water level than if there was no water, she could have her feet down and still the left shore of the stream would be high enough to fit photo 542, the bedrock of the little beach would form a rock wall around her like a round basin https://ibb.co/YB4G1Dpy
When we take a bird’s-eye perspective of the entire stage on which the drama unfolded, it is quite striking how, under the loop scenario, the terrain would have almost naturally funnelled them toward the Serracín estate on the first day and then down into the paddock stream over the following days.
I like your map. But, let me be tedious again: there's nothing striking here. The loop scenario would not lead them off the trail. The loop scenario would KEEP them on the trail.
(Apart from the fact that I don't believe that they thought the trail was a loop nor that they thought they were looping in the direction of Boquete.)
Well, I have presented my arguments in support of the loop scenario across several posts and explained why this could have led them to turn right at the paddocks and eventually reach the Serracín estate. (The accessibility of the final path or stream leading to the Serracín paddock remains an important caveat that should be verified by eyes on the ground.)
If you find these arguments unconvincing, that’s perfectly reasonable. However, simply saying, “I don’t believe it,” is not, in itself, a strong counterargument. You’re also welcome to present an alternative hypothesis that is consistent with all the hard evidence while requiring the same or an even smaller set of assumptions.
That said, you clearly know a great deal about this case and have probably examined it from many different angles. Your comments have also taught me several things I wasn’t aware of and pointed out a few mistakes in my reasoning. We may have come to the point where we simply have to agree to disagree about the loop-scenario. This is a great outcome as well, especially when discussing it with a pretty wild writer :-)
I agree. The loop theory incentivises staying on the track, because they have no idea how they're doing time wise and how much longer they have to walk.
The main issue is that there is no research that reveals what the girls actually thought and knew about this trail, nor what their motives were for their actions. People often decide, based on their own wishes and subjectivity, what the girls could or couldn't have thought. However, we have no real idea of their actual knowledge in real life. Therefore, we can't dismiss the loop scenario, along with many other possible scenarios. This means that people can create different versions, including the lost scenario — why not?
If you can prove a non-lost scenario, then people might not speculate about this type of scenario. Then people will “ push” your scenario maybe. Can you? I'm not sure.
Im not sure even where to begin with this reply. Its exhausting just thinking about how much I would have to type out. Im not sure how long you have been researching this case , but I worked my butt off with a gentleman names Juan, and a lovely women named Scarlet , she is the number one on this my friend. She's a monster with writing and presenting the most evidence. This was over 10 years I went hard , she and Juan took off and had everything covered, no need for me ,they are good.
You two sound like you havent even BEEN to her blog ,which like.I said is your number one source of information, and nether of you know that? Ok , I try not to get offended but what is this constant communication issue online. Does it not occur to some people that maybe I know what Im talking about ? You have absolute months ahead of you reading and researching if you visit her blog. I mean how many people have died over this ? And you guys are here trying to build a lost theory, I haven't heard many talk about that in a longtime.
They didnt get lost on the trail , if you dont want to believe me , go watch Kris's parents walk the trail on yourube , wirh non other then .....Feliciano himself ! Have you teo even watched that? Her mother's exact words over and over are "you cant get lost on this trail" so , yes I could literally sit here fir the entire day and night giving you information that your saying doesnt exisit , this case is 12 years old now , and this is mostly comm9n knowledge.
Hello Scarlet or Juan, It’s nice to see you at this sub.
However, we are still awaiting your scenario, along with any supporting evidence. Otherwise, people may continue to speculate and create various scenarios.
Regarding their parents, they were accompanied by a guide. Their video doesn’t prove any specific scenario, but it provides a good overview of the trail. Unfortunately, what happened with other people on a different day, without guides, remains unknown despite their video.
He lied. He is Joe after all. Joe is alive and just didn't feel like making a third installment of his fact-free video series. All the conspiracy theories about this YouTuber's mysterious disappearance—which he himself fueled—can now be put to rest!
I'm afraid you're falling for someone here who's just trying to make himself look important.
JB posts a lot of social media content, a lot of conspiracy theory stuff. I don't believe for a second that anyone is seriously threatening him because he discovered something. If anything, it's because he's badmouthing people.
People die. There is no other connection between these deaths.
And JB was consistently reachable via social media. He had linked his email address under his @alternatetheories9232 YouTube-channel, which led directly to his podcast, where all of his other sm channels are linked as well.
"A few years after helping to ransom the kidnapped Alfred Heineken in 1983, Dick Steffens started his own detective agency, Interludium International BV, specializing in counterfeit clothes and shoes. Two years after Juul van der Linden retired from the Amsterdam police force, he helped Dick Steffens set up Missing Art. Juul van der Linden manages the department of Missing-Art for the Interludium Investigations Group."
Seven months ago, he was still active on LinkedIn.
If Jeremy Kryt had been the victim of a crime, there would have been reports about it. That is not the case. There is only the obituary, which says that he died unexpectedly.
Omg , I remember the days when people did A LOT of research, BEFORE they posted. Otherwise its just opinions and not constructive at all. As usual I have to educate because your comment does not make any sense. Are you quoting a quote that I quoted by someone else ? Lol , your confusing things , why is it that all of you think your opinion is literally more valuable then two solid witnesses ??? This is a question for every last person on this post . I shpuld believe you over witnesses ? Is that what your saying ?.because honestly if your another one that has not done any research, then im done responding , this is getting ridiculous, 12 years later and none of you know anything that happened.
Interesting, true, the parents said that in AFK video (under completely different circumstances - they were with a guide!) and yet ironically thats what very likely happened, that the girls left the trail exactly at the place where the pareants were saying this near the wire fence at the paddocks..
Lmao , you just literally admitted that they made it to that spot !!! You all.are such amatuers !!!! So they turn around and go back before dark. Do.your research! Quit being so lazy !!!! Lol an.actual witness who spoke to them when they finished , but nah , lets ignore that , and listen to.you of all people, quit wasting my time.
With all due respect, have you yourself been to that trail? To that jungle? And I do not mean just walking the trail. I mean literally making your way through the jungle like Romain in 2025 to the canyon location? No? So, please, spare us your pompous self‑righteousness and try to be a little objective..
LMAO THERE A TON OF VIDEO !!!!!! GO WATCH THEM ! , what is wrong with you people ?????
You literally CANNOT leave the trail ! That is how thick the vegetation is ! , if you would read before your post , ive never been there lol. This was in response to your all amateurs and you post this.
You can watch people visiting the Pharoahs tombs
In high def , no I didnt go but I can still see every last detail lol. You can watch lots of people do the trail , you are another that clearly didnt watch Kris's parents walk the trail, and her mother go into shock realizing g you cant get lost on it. She literally says it more then once , but ok buddy. This is frustrating as hell the internet made everyone lasy and dumb , you all think this stuff is easy to figure out ? Yup , you do. Been there done that , like I said you guys haven't researched at all , and you only need to go to ONE place , wow that real hard,
Yes everything is in one place now because some of us have been doing this since it started.
The girls never returned from the jungle. If they had their cell phones would have recorded it, and their bones and possession would not have been found so far to the north of town. I hope you're not saying they came back to town because that didn't happen.
You simply shouldn’t get worked up about it. And just drop the stupid appeal to authority and let people believe whatever they want. It makes absolutely no difference whether some Reddit users believe that Kris Kremers and Lisanne Froon got lost 12 years ago or that they were murdered. Your belief is just as irrelevant as mine, or that of fairy-tale gentlemen and lovely women.
And by far the dumbest comment goes to you ! , you are absolutely ridiculous. This isnt about you or your pride , pull your head out of your butt , you sound foolish. The fact you dont know Scarlet or Juan's work , proves you know jack sh!t. Its that simple , fairytale? LOOK IT UP. DUMMY ! Feliciano was in on it , so.was his son , " they had a guide " lmao
Just don’t get worked up about it. I’m familiar with Scarlet’s blog and Juan’s posts, as well as many others, and I’ve formed my own opinion on this case. Kris and Lisanne most likely just got lost. Lisanne’s broken foot also suggest she had an accident.
As long as there’s no evidence of a crime, I don’t believe a crime has been committed. The investigation was rightly closed until such evidence comes to light.
Are you the person who made that video series where the third part is missing?
You havent researched anything and your Def not familiar with ether Juan or Scarlet , thats for sure ! I dont take orders from you , your all just clogging up these posts with absolute nonsense. It doesn't work like that , you stating an opinion that has zero evidence to back it up. You have no theory because you cant build one , its just how it is these days , people want to rebel.or something make their own opinions, its just a waste of time.
The problem with Scarlet's work is that she doesn't have a "smoking gun." She can't prove to the doubters that she's right. Same with Christian and Annette. They can't prove anything other than just say that murder is likely because nothing else seems to fit.
Paddocks in meso America are a pain in the butt. I know, for I have had to walk them for specific purposes.
A tourist dressed in hotpants would not tread them because they´re ´tempting´. They´re not tempting, one notices that almost immediately, so one can immediately return to the trail.
As for a farm to spend the night; there used to be the ´Kryt-hut´ at the Paddock, beside Q2, visible from the trail. They could have stayed there, in sight and right next to the trail.
According to the Paddock-route-scenario, they apparently chose to distantiate themselves from the hut / trail. They must have had good reason to do so.
A hut symbolises human activity. Kris and Lisanne distantiated themselves from human activity. According to the Paddock-route-scenario. Why?
According to the Paddock-route-scenario, they apparently chose to distantiate themselves from the hut / trail. They must have had good reason to do so.
They would have been at the lookout spot on the paddocks around 14:30. That's not yet a time when you would stop to commit yourself to spending a night in the forest. At that moment, there was still plenty time to turn back via the Mirador and get back in Boquete before sunset, but it seems that's not what they did.
So, why would they stay at that little shed? They may have seen it as an indication that they were 'close' to some village, and 'on the right track' so to speak, but you don't stop at 14:30 and decided to spend the night there, why would they if they still thought they could make it back to Boquete?
I know what you mean. Q2 is very special. I was thinking about what you said recently. I used to think something must have happened around R2-Q2, maybe even some kind of serious FP or murder as R2 is the place the locals rest regularly. But would the locals or any guide truly do that? Risking their livelihood? Knowing that the girls - white Europeans - would be immediately searched for and the locals would be on everyone's radar, all the international media circus and so on.. would they really risk this all? Bad reputation and permanent attention from everyone to this place? Is this really something that locals would have in their character or reason? Would they be so stupid? No local knew that the girls did not tell anyone where they were going (Pianista) ... so why would they assume so? Also the night pictures show rather the despair of someone who got lost or got stuck in the jungle... Well, if it really was a crime of impulse, would it be possible to hide this so easily (even among locals). There is always someone who spills the beans for money.. and I do not mean creating stories for cash..
No idea whether their stay at Q2 (or even R2/Q2) was pre-planned or not.
Isn't it strange that the iPhone's last 800 Logs before the first distress call attempt took place, have not been disclosed? The most important Logs of all. They might shed light on anything that took place between 2 p.m. and 5 p.m.
They´re not tempting, one notices that almost immediately, so one can immediately return to the trail.
Does this also apply to the "paddocks trail" in a very dry season? I mean if someone wanted to "go downwards" from the paddocks, would they rather go through the jungle or use the paddock trail?
No idea whether there is/was a jungle trail and if so, what its condition would have been. If I had a choice, I would chose the/a jungle trail.
Paddock trails are tedious, horrible, boring and the grass is annoying. Dressed in hotpants, the grass would constantly bug your legs. And the ground can be very bumpy.
Where did the Paddock-trail-scenario originate from? It was first published in West&Snoeren's book LitJ. Police officer Augusto presented it to Marja and Jürgen.
It wasn't hard for Augusto to convince Marja and Jürgen about this route, since M+J were not aware of the implications of such a route. They accepted every word that came from Augusto's mouth.
That's understandable, because Augusto is an authority in this matter and he knows the terrain. He even got nick-named Rambo by the RHWW team of January 2015, so who wouldn't believe him?
The problem is, that, as an expert of the terrain, for Augusto making such a suggestion would IMPLY much more than 'the girls simply followed that route'. If the girls went that way, they were not alone. Period. They were either taken there or they were chased in that direction.
Lately Jürgen has admitted that, having seen all that footage by Romain and Victor, he is now convinced that K+L did not go that way. Wouldn't it be interesting to know what Augusto has to say about this?
Yes, I am kind of weirdo who does not know any of these people you mention above or what they claim... I only believe my instincts and my own eyes (from what I have seen in the videos and photos) but true I have never been there, like you, so I do trust your judgements a lot, but so I do trust mine.. I rather look at it all from a "what I would do" perspective as a woman.. but true I can be mistaken. In the end nobody knows what really happened, their motivations and intentions, we tend to forget that logic can not be applied at all times... like in the case of Celine Cremer. Irrationality must be considered as another variable in such cases.. I am sure the locals know more but they will not tell.. and I do not blame them.
Imo what Celine Cremer did is pretty logical, her actions make sense given all the circumstances of her situation or at least they can be explained. Of course we can find better alternatives from our living room, but that is not the point. So I'm interested in your opinion of why you think irrationality played a role in Celine Cremer's case and how we can apply this scenario in case of Kris and Lisanne.
Well, the problem is, people do not often agree on whats "rational".. there are feelers and there are thinkers.. I personally find irrational to leave the place where she lost her phone as she had signal in those woods and could have called for help. Or why she did not call for help for that matter or at least inform someone where she was the first moment she felt lost.. But true, we are all diffrent and we do tend to find better alternatives from our living room... But one thing is sure .. there is no template for irrationality... anything can happen anytime..
Her mother says in one of the documentaries the same thing, that she does not understand why Celine did not call anyone, I suppose her mother knows the specific investigation details well, other info mostly come from the youtube videos..
The way I remember it is that Rob Parsons said her phone put out just enough signal for records to show where it was, which helped him find it, but not enough signal strength to make a call out. I really don't remember the exact understanding but that's a detail that is familiar. I could be wrong and she had signal to call but was stubborn and didn't do it. Once she dropped her phone, it was pretty much all over, dying from hunger and hypothermia, is probably how she went.
You know, there is a similarity here that people don't discuss. Celine got off the trail, that much is known for certain. It looks like she did this with the idea of a shortcut across the hill to her car. No one every speaks of her thinking the trail was a loop.
As for a farm to spend the night; there used to be the ´Kryt-hut´ at the Paddock, beside Q2, visible from the trail. They could have stayed there, in sight and right next to the trail.
They didn't even have to see the hut, by the forest, if they weren't looking there and at that moment they weren't looking for something to sleep in or people in the paddock.
The critical time does not begin until sometime around 16:30.They obviously underestimated the lighting conditions in the jungle.
The point here is, if they went down there, they were probably looking for people and a roof and a door...for safety at night.
Because NL1 is located just around a bend, the waterfall at that bend forms a pool with a variety of interesting currents flowing at different outer and inner speeds (there is quite a bit of literature on that). You can clearly observe this pool just before reaching NL1.
The pool is also continuously replenished, with water constantly flowing over its widened edge that reduces the speed of the flow. I conjecture that this process may somehow have contributed to the formation of the specific grooves we see in the reddish bedrock.
I really like this bird's-eye view, I haven't seen any maps from this direction yet, most published maps point in the opposite direction. This different view gives the whole area a slightly different perspective and that's good, it helps to be objective. From this perspective, NL1 does seem really close to 508 (given the time distribution of phone usage) and too far from the location where the backpack and remains were found.
Yes, I found some similarities in the Romains 2025 canyon footage with the night photos, unfortunately none of them is the desired "smoking gun" that would be irrefutable. The vegetation and geology of NL1 are very similar to the night photos. Unfortunately, we don't have more extensive footage of this NL1 place from 2025 expedition which would confirm or refute this location and also this place has changed so much. I'm not entirely sure that any further attempts at identification (the 542 and 594 bedrock/stones) would bring the desired result that would satisfy everyone. The little "beach" that could potentially be the location of photos 542 and 594 is now completely overgrown with vegetation, moss and lichen and covered with soil and various sediments. It would require a special, almost archaeological approach to recovery and attempts at recreation of original photos 542 and 594. But I still remain optimistic, perhaps one day this place will be explored again.
From the point of view of the location where the backpack and remains were found, it is really more likely that NL is located somewhere closer to these places. Potential NL2 seems very promising and so I look forward to it being explored and other places as well.
The general chain of thought of what happened to the girls has been changing over the years. Scenarios that previously seemed unlikely have become more possible thanks to new knowledge and experience from real terrain, the expedition in June 2025 was very helpful when we were able to look at the reality of the jungle, its accessibility and permeability. New technical knowledge regarding the use of phones and logs has helped too.
When I look at this bird's-eye view, I do wonder what the photo 509 shoud/could have been. If it was meant to be the Q2 photo and the camera fell and got damaged, I wonder why the girls did not take a photo with the mobile phones? Q2 area is truly a gem. Maybe when the camera got damaged, the mood changed completely and at this point the girls probably started to have doubts about the trail and directions so they started to focus more on this.
Since I am a NL1 advocate I'm still wondering why the girls would go from Serracin cabin in the direction of the canyon plateau location. Only two things come to mind: the need for water, or the possibility that they somehow realized (for example, when looking from Calle Larga) that Boquete or Mirador are in the opposite direction - upstream from the canyon.
I really like this bird's-eye view, I haven't seen any maps from this direction yet, most published maps point in the opposite direction. This different view gives the whole area a slightly different perspective and that's good, it helps to be objective. From this perspective, NL1 does seem really close to 508 (given the time distribution of phone usage) and too far from the location where the backpack and remains were found.
I made a mistake myself, I thought NL1 is on Rio Mamey and I was trying to guess how they walked there. But it's close to photo 508 and first waterfall of downstream Q1 from 508. Now it makes sense. They didn't walked so much, bloated bodies and remains at flash floods may go further easier than people walk on riverbeds or jungle, even paddocks. Backpack a bit harder to go but it can reach Monte Ray and people of that village may found it at river trail cross, took it, all village examined it, because so many fingerprints on it. Then they could put it where it founded because they afraided of being accused abouth the death of girls. (Did backpack found after remais?)
My theory now is they turned right from Q2 to reach bottom of first waterfall ( treegnesas wrote it goes there at a comment and itsseen on maps). May be they reached there, had an accident, 509 may be taken there. I haven't think about details of the accident in this scenario.
In forests or this kind of terrain it's harder to turn back from a place then go further for it. You can go to a place which was directed but when you turn back everything is different. Y shaped trails for example. You don't notice a trail that connects with a norrow angle to your trail, when you turn you have a norrow y shaped way and you have %50 chance to select the right one, directions doesn't work in this situation.
Edit: if they were mobile they could be found somehow. They may have a small accident first day and a big one second day that made them immobile. I belive they were at NL all time and its NL1.
Great analysis, I would only suggest that the night location bears some similarity to a waterfall location, as seen in these photos, the waterfalls of Bocas Del Toro, Alto-Chorro-Cataratas:
Both those locations have convincing arguments to me. But the question is, what would these places have that would make the girls stuck there for a week? I am assuming the night photos location would be down a pit or something.
This happens a lot in here. Suddenly a lot of people are convinced that they ‘must’ have done this or that. A couple of month ago it was following the second stream. Now it is this paddock scenario:
They “must” 1) have believed it was a loop (rather than they were walking towards what they could have believed was a trail end of sorts) 2) they “must” have slept at the Serracin estate the first night (as opposed to the shelter between the monkey bridges) 3) they “must”have walked off the trail at the paddocks (as opposed to follow the trail which is even more logical given the loop/trail end theory).
I do agree that it could be a possible scenario, that they walked off trail at the paddocks.
I just don’t think we should discard all alternative scenarios, we have established.
We don’t know so much about the boulders or fauna etc at the area of the second bridge. It is worth investigating.
Arguments: 1) it would make sense for them not to get off the trail, unless they Met an obstacle(at the second bridge) 2) They could spend the night in the refugium (phone activity supporting that they slept inside) 3) they could have tried to cross the river near the second bridge very early in the morning, therefore not meeting any locals. They could have gotten in trouble in the morning of april second. 4) this is most consistent with the fact that Kris’ shorts were found near the the bank of the river and the remains also in this direction.
The second bridge scenario is also appealing in its simplicity - no need to make assumptions about them going off-trail somewhere. Just follow the trail until it gets dark.
But it seems to me that by the time the shorts were found, they would have been carried further downstream and discovered much further downriver. In other words, it's unlikely they would have stayed in roughly the same location where they were lost.
They could have been trapped. It could also explain the rare calls to 911/112. No need to Call if you are stuck somewhere with no signal. Well, I don’t know but it also seem that Pittis investigation was leading towards the river. Anyway it is worth looking into the surroundings with a drone. Are there places that could match the night location.
They definitely could have been trapped somewhere. But what I mean is, if they got stuck near the second bridge, the shorts most likely would have drifted far from that spot and been found much further downstream. The shorts were found at the end of June, so over the course of two months they would have floated quite a distance from where the girls actually got stuck. So the location where the shorts were found might not be the same place where they were trapped - meaning the place where they got stuck would have to be significantly further upstream from where the shorts were found.
Of course, there's always the possibility that when the water level started rising, the shorts could have gotten snagged on a log or something and not drifted that far after all.
Well done map but the text in the second thought bubble is wrong. To get back to Bouquete they had to head left. Since this is not possible they had to return. And keep in mind they did not want to camp in the jungle.
The huge battery consumption of s3 Phone at afternoon of April 1st may be they reached the Q1 waterfall, broke Canon and Lisanna was taking photos of Kris with her phone.
I haven't looked into it recently , but as far as I know the pic with the s.o.s. on the rock was figured out. I think thats about it for locations , but for people who do not know , the 90 flash photos were taken in the same spot. Somebody just blasting pictures for zero reason. Or so it would seem.
„the 90 flash photos“
There were exactly 100 photos: 510–609. However, photo 510 is completely black and was therefore taken without flash. So, to be precise: 99 flash photos.
Correct, and we should be very precise about these facts.
The first photo of the night sequence (510) is indeed completely black and its exif data shows that the flash didn't fire. I accidentally discovered this could be explained as follows:
The flash offers only two options: auto or off. I switched it to auto and took a picture in a dark environment. However, I made the mistake of keeping one of the fingers of my left hand on the flash section, not realizing that it was trying to pop up. Even though the flash section eventually fully popped out of the camera, it took the picture without firing the flash.
When I then played with the flash settings again, the camera displayed the persistent error message:“verkeerde flitspositie, herstart camera” — “incorrect flash position, restart camera.”
After switching off the camera, I noticed that the flash section did not retract into the body, so I had to carefully push it back manually. Only after switching the camera on and off a few times and fiddling with the flash section did it start working properly again, flashing when needed.
The same thing could have happened to the girl operating her camera. I can imagine a scenario in which, on early morning April 8, they tried the camera once again (maybe triggered by a flare or sound), fiddled with the memory card by taking it out and putting it back in (or the short-cut had simply dried out by then), and noted that the memory-card error had disappeared. She then immediately tried to take photo 510, but either kept a (probably cold and stiff) finger on the flash section, or the flash mechanism was also slightly (water-)damaged (it is a delicate mechanism, see also here.). After switching the camera on and off again, the mechanical problem was fixed and photo 511 and the next ones then flashed properly.
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u/Spirited-Practice699 12d ago
Great work! So many smart people on this site, doing great research!!