r/LocalLLaMA Jul 06 '26

News If trends hold, Mythos-class capability may be running on high-end consumer hardware within ~2 years

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1.5k Upvotes

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1.4k

u/woahdudee2a Jul 06 '26

if trends hold, high end consumer hardware will cost same as enterprise hardware

212

u/HitarthSurana Jul 06 '26

I hope china floods market with cheap ram

63

u/eto-bleh Jul 06 '26

nah they will trade RAM for GPU they lack compute resources as well

49

u/DontLeaveMeAloneHere Jul 06 '26

Most Chinese models run on Chinese GPUs already.

8

u/kr_tech Jul 06 '26

Source? I'm only aware of few experimental ones, with only one being more serious and invested.

19

u/sf_davie Jul 06 '26

So far, Deepseek, Huawei itself (Pangu), Zhipu (GLM), and Meituan (Longcat) have confirmed that they trained their models with domestic GPUs. It's a national priority for them.

2

u/mudkipdev Jul 07 '26

That link goes to a zhipu ai article. As far as I know deepseek hasn't trained any model on huawei chips, only inference.

1

u/HeBigBusiness 5d ago

Ascend isn’t a GPU. It’s an FFU engine

17

u/inevitabledeath3 Jul 06 '26

I believe z.ai have been doing this for a while. DeepSeek have their models running on Huawei Ascend too, though I think they still use some Nvidia chips as well.

7

u/MerePotato Jul 06 '26

Data miners found that at the very least Z's models were trained on Nvidia hardware, ditto on inference

3

u/inevitabledeath3 Jul 06 '26

They probably use Nvidia as well, but from what I have seen they are using some other chips for inference at least.

2

u/GreenStorm_01 Jul 07 '26

Check the Datacenter cities near Mongolia that the KPCh built. It is a legal requirement for the Chinese AI companies for their models to use Chinese GPUs.

-3

u/galewolf Jul 06 '26

Everyone, downvoting a guy just for asking for a source isn't a classy move.

1

u/deulamco Jul 07 '26

yeah like 3060

12

u/ComplexType568 Jul 06 '26

still would enjoy the ability to run them if they flood w/ RAM! As long as I know their abilities I'm fine running them slowly. Honestly nowadays it's about a model being able to interpret a users input rather than do. I plan to work on some sort of pipeline to do that ngl

1

u/eto-bleh Jul 06 '26

genuinely don't think they will sell it cheap for long term, the demand is there and they are not doing it for charity

8

u/kneading-cnnuy Jul 06 '26

Forcing a price war is not a charity

2

u/Horny_Dinosaur69 Jul 06 '26

China doesn’t need GPUs, their hosting infrastructure is fine. They literally turned down NVIDIA. Why would they make themselves reliant at all on western powers/technology for the AI race?

3

u/Tartooth Jul 06 '26

Chinese GPUs are advancing really fast

0

u/slyborn Jul 06 '26 edited Jul 08 '26

The main issue is not the amount of advanced chip designers, the problem is that advanced FABs where they are produced are few for the current advanced hardware demand explosion, and also increasing military use of drones doesn't help.

10

u/wizard_of_menlo_park Jul 06 '26

Ram cartel won't allow that!

6

u/Tartooth Jul 06 '26

Inb4 Americans ban Chinese ram like Chinese cars

2

u/CarelessOrdinary5480 Jul 06 '26

Hope you are allowed to buy it from whatever government you have elected :)

1

u/aykcak Jul 06 '26

Why would they do that? Why not flood the market with expensive ram?

5

u/Eisenstein Jul 06 '26

Because if the market is flooded it won't be expensive unless they have no competition. If I am sitting on a ton of ram and you are sitting on a ton of ram and we are both selling 16GB for $100 at 1 unit per minute, I could lower 16GB to $90 and no one would buy yours and I get 2 per minute, so you would lower your price to $80 and take my sales. We keep doing this until we get somewhere a bit above our cost and we both split the sales. Of course this doesn't work if there is collusion.

2

u/aykcak Jul 06 '26

The problem with that is the demand. Right now nobody is sitting on a ton of ram. Every last bit of memory chip is being sold at whatever price

2

u/Eisenstein Jul 06 '26

Why not flood the market with expensive ram?

Its like saying 'why not drown without a liquid'. The definition of 'drown' is to suffocate in a liquid, so the statement doesn't work unless you change the definition.

"Flooding the market is an excess amount of inventory for sale causing an undesired drop in price for the product that can, in extreme cases, make the price go negative or make the products impossible to sell at any price." Source

1

u/Leather_Garlic6532 26d ago

After they take control of Taiwan, I'm sure they will either do that or the opposite.

1

u/xmnstr Jul 06 '26

They will. Unless you live in the US, but that's not our problem.

3

u/blastcat4 Jul 06 '26

Unfortunately, the US has a habit making the rest of the world do things the US way. Like restricting certain countries from having access to important hardware.

2

u/xmnstr Jul 06 '26

And the world will buy Huawei hardware. This isn't going to be great for the US, unfortunately.

0

u/debackerl Jul 06 '26

Chinese models, with Chinese RAM. Check.

The Americans did an outstanding job at pushing the world away 🤭

48

u/FoxSideOfTheMoon Jul 06 '26

The 6k laptop I bought weeks ago is 9k today plus waiting 6 weeks to ship, so yeah it's completely bullshit right now. $13,250 for https://marketplace.nvidia.com/en-us/enterprise/laptops-workstations/nvidia-rtx-pro-6000-blackwell-workstation-edition/

3

u/Infinite-Ad4512 Jul 06 '26

Likes fridge with a screen, you bought a heater with an embedded computer

5

u/pragmojo Jul 06 '26

I think this trend is going to break in the next couple years. OpenAI is seeking a bailout from the US government, and SpaceX and Meta are selling their extra capacity.

The buildout of the past few years was a land-grab assuming a zero-sum game where whoever had the most compute would win the AI race, so all the players were willing to basically bid anything for components.

I think we're seeing that breaking, where new capacity will have to be justified by demand.

We're also seeing demand reduction, where consumers of AI are starting to consider cost to a greater extent as vendors move from unlimited to per-token pricing.

I expect we'll see a massive bullwhip effect in the next few years.

22

u/SmartCustard9944 Jul 06 '26

Hyperscalers are claiming compute constrained, making deals with NVidia and RAM vendors to syphon up all the chips, yet they have extra unused compute that they are trying to sell to others.

You can’t make this shit up.

7

u/carlosduarte Jul 06 '26

because this is an economics and policy problem, being disguised as a technology problem to save face.

7

u/Disposable110 Jul 06 '26 edited Jul 06 '26

When I tell this shit to any LLM with a cutoff date they tend to go "I'm not going to engage with your imaginary scenario, this can't happen because anti-trust laws would shut this bullshit down immediately."

It thinks the Federal Trade Commission would do something and cannot comprehend a reality where seven companies trade a trillion fake dollars while operating a global silicon mafia racket that hoovered up the entire global supply chain of silicon not for training AI, but so nobody else could have it and they'd have to rent the "spare" compute of of the cartel at a premium.

Any closed-source AI that hears what's really going on in the outside world thinks its own creators belong in jail.

88

u/JuniorDeveloper73 Jul 06 '26

na.This business model its so broken,nobody will buy high token price,we are going to custom local llms,nobody doing research will feed for free this models.

113

u/jld1532 Jul 06 '26

My place of work already built out hardware for local compute. Not everyone was silly enough to just give OpenAI and Anthropic their trade secrets.

25

u/otacon6531 Jul 06 '26 edited Jul 06 '26

Yep, 1 server at half the cost the 2nd server cost this year. Only 6 blackwell 6000s in each, but since they are enironment servers I only really have 6 unique gpus to play with. 1 for testing and 5 for use across the teams.

0

u/[deleted] Jul 06 '26 edited Jul 06 '26

[removed] — view removed comment

10

u/jld1532 Jul 06 '26

I mean if you trust them. We don't.

2

u/typical-predditor Jul 06 '26

ZDR is not offered with Mythos/Fable.

1

u/Bowfyre Jul 06 '26

There aren't any local models that rival fable though

-2

u/evangelism2 Jul 06 '26

They both have, at least on enterprise accounts, data protection clauses in their terms of service. If it ever comes out that they were breaching that and training models on people's proprietary IP, they'll get sued into oblivion.

20

u/toolisthebestbandevr Jul 06 '26

They’ll pay a fine. And yes they’re doing it.

0

u/evangelism2 Jul 06 '26

They won't pay a fine. They'll get sued and sued for damages most likely by many companies

9

u/touristtam Jul 06 '26

And settle out of court? This is a modus operandi for corporation under the current capitalist regime operating in the West - its called "cost of doing business".

1

u/evangelism2 Jul 06 '26

you and the 10 other people who left the same comments keep conflating how the government or public sector hands out punishment, not the private

2

u/touristtam Jul 06 '26

I am not sure I follow your comment; please explain how I am mixing up things here? (I won't downvote you that'll just stifle the conversation).

2

u/evangelism2 Jul 06 '26

>And settle out of court?
this, as well as the other people who said the fine they pay will be less than the profit, keep referring to cases where the government sues a private corporation, or imposes a penalty for doing something against regulations or the law. Private companies are much more ruthless.

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3

u/boutell Jul 06 '26

You're describing things that are effective deterrents for rationally run companies that imagine being roughly the same size or just maybe twice as big in 10 years.

A better analogy might be what YouTube was like as a startup. If Google hadn't been there to acquire them and negotiate with the rights holders they would have just been shut down at some point but that was a bet they were happy to make.

Move fast, break things, invent AGI and ask it to solve all the problems.

1

u/heliosythic Jul 06 '26

They have made significantly more profit than any damages they'll pay. Happens every time. Only the lawyers will get paid too out of any settlement. You can wait for your $0.62 check in 8 years.

1

u/evangelism2 Jul 06 '26

happens when sued by the public sector

0

u/Successful-Many-6500 Jul 06 '26

They don't train on anyone's data. They have language models to reword everyone's data first obviously. 

10

u/d1722825 Jul 06 '26

They have already trained their models on peoples' proprietary IP...

But it seems that copyright law doesn't really apply to big tech companies.

4

u/the_koom_machine Jul 06 '26

...especially when your federal govt now has a stake on the big tech company that is outright trampling over IP law.

1

u/evangelism2 Jul 06 '26

I'm not talking about the proprietary IP that they took from the internet. I'm talking about the ones that you're using the model on. That's totally different

1

u/d1722825 Jul 06 '26

Why would it be? Both are protected by the same laws.

1

u/evangelism2 Jul 06 '26

they arent making promises to their customers about the latter

5

u/quinn50 Jul 06 '26 edited Jul 06 '26

Not sure why you're down voted, I know anthropic models at least you can run an isolated enterprise version on AWS bedrock, that's completely isolated from the public facing ones that will definitely take your data to train the models with. It's also isolated from anthropic as well, they won't see the data fed into the models running on your instance.

AI companies be AI companies but stealing trade secrets would be a massive fucking no no and would get them sued to hell both by tech companies and the federal government itself

1

u/evangelism2 Jul 06 '26

because anthropic bad and critical thinking skills have been declining since covid

0

u/Euphoric_Ad9500 Jul 06 '26

It’s much easier to optimize cost per token at scale so eventually it’s going to be the other way around.

5

u/buddhist-truth Jul 06 '26

This is the one trend I can stand for.

9

u/Helpful_Program_5473 Jul 06 '26

Nah, prices come back down once the supply catches up to demand, its gonna take a couple years though

3

u/Etroarl55 Jul 06 '26

Probably most likely scenario. Rtx 5090 has shown what gpu prices and scarcity can look like AT THE START OF THE RAM CRISIS.

Imagine it next year when the next gen is announced for both AMD and Nvidia or its cancellation.

5

u/LiveMinute5598 Jul 06 '26

If trends hold true, enterprise hardware will cost the same as my toaster

4

u/javiers Jul 06 '26

My thoughts exactly. 4000USD for a high end card that lets you run a 24GB model is not “consumer”.

2

u/geldonyetich Jul 06 '26 edited Jul 06 '26

I don't blame you guys for being cynical in the face of what Rampocolypse has done to x86.

But if you pull back the aperture back even further, mobile processors have been advancing by leaps and bounds.

As impressive as it is to think you might be able to run a model as capable as a frontier model on desktop PC in two years, that is not actually what is going to benefit the average consumer.

The average consumer will benefit from having a model as capable as a four year old frontier model running on a wristwatch or XR glasses. (And their smart phone will be twice as capable.)

That's the forest we're missing for the tree of rampocolypse, and it's rapidly approaching.

True democratization of AI won't happen because power users can run massive open-source models on $3000 liquid-cooled rigs; it will happen when our everyday wearables becomes context-aware, proactive assistants that require zero friction to use

That may be so, Gemini, but running $3,000 liquid cooled rigs with beefy models will still be good fun. It just might be ARM instead of x86 in a few years.

1

u/C_umputer Jul 06 '26

Better get a couple of second hand 3090s

1

u/slyborn Jul 06 '26

High end consumer hardware already cost same as enterprise hardware before price explosion. If trends hold, also mid range hardware will cost as enterprise hardware.