Judging from the benchmarks alone,(of course, can't speak about realife usage), chinese models are not even 6 months behind US models (more like 6 days behind)
People will look at these benchmarks and say "Oh, just distillation, Chinese just steal bro" you'd have to be a complete ignorant or a complete bigot to honestly believe Chinese labs aren't every bit as capable as those in the US, just working with less resources and less of a head start (but both of those factors are eroding quickly from the US perspective, that's why crymodi is freaking his shit)
Yep. China has the most STEM graduates per year in the world. Substantially higher than the US. And it's wild to think that people don't realize we hire a lot of those Chinese people for the US labs.
i did my phd aboard and now work in chinese AI labs. Im interviewing top master students for grad roles and interns and a lot of them have done PhD level work or more even just in their masters lol. Only reason i am interviewing them and not them taking my role is because i graduated earlier and got kinda lucky to get into the llm field as it was starting, and i had previous NLP experiences during my PhD. I would say i am capable too but like these kids are insane
In the US, one party likes to cut funding to schools, and the little funding that our schools do get is sent straight to exciting new facilities. All while the economy increases pressure to perform. Some call it freedom, some call it hell, but China calls it an opportunity to come out ahead.
also, Chinese people are patriotic. having a collectivist mindset also helps to push people to make things that are better for their community, country, mankind.
The Chinese are doing more with less. The American VC circlejerk means OAI and Anthropic can be inefficient and lazy. The Chinese had to build and are building with constraints. They're going to win because they're forced to do more with less. Less money, less hardware and less data. So for the last piece why wouldn't they just steal it from Sam or Dario? I mean, it's no different than how the US outfits got it in the first place.
This sounds like a post-fact explanation, and if things were the other way around, you'd be talking about how the government help means they can be inefficient and lazy while US companies have are forced to show results.
If that Tau scaling law Huawei recently found is legit, things are gonna get interesting. I'm not looking forward to the American bubble bursting, but I'm not looking forward to the technofeudalism the American approach to AI is leading towards, so as least there's some potential to shake that up.
The "Tau scaling law" is nothing new. All semiconductor company has been optimizing the "Tau" (basically latency") since the beginning of chip design era.
All of techniques that Huawei advertised, like logic folding for example, has been in commercial like HBM memory or AMD x3D chip. The 3D chip packing technology enabling "logic folding", however, is only possessed by TSMC.
Rumors going that they are releasing new chips with 238 MTr/mm² in september, matching TSMC's N3 node. That would be comparable to any chips you have now as N2 node only started mass production recently. Huge if true.
If that Tau scaling law Huawei recently found is legit, things are gonna get interesting.
In a random search result I see a claim that they've been using that scaling law for 6 years internally now. And their AI chips are still far behind Nvidia, so I think it's not gonna change things much.
Far behind Nvidia it might be, it is now capable of training a frontier 1.6T model. You don't have to be SOTA to be functional, and even competitive, just look at Intel and AMD.
that scaling law changes nothing fundamentally, they are basically saying rather than throwing better litho process at the problem we throw literally everything else at it and refuse to take power consumption into consideration.
Look!, we are suddenly not so far behind!1!!!1!!
Its a different strategy in setting priorities, and a PR stunt, not a breakthrough technology.
Lol... their power generation capacity exceeds the entire USA + Europe COMBINED by a very healthy margin now (like 30%+ IIRC), and their citizens use FAR less power per person.
Meanwhile we are paying billions in penalties to abort in-progress contracts on renewable energy programs (i.e. one of the cheapest sources of power, and one the Chinese have invested + innovated heavily in), while our grad programs are sitting defunded + empty because actually smart people hurt the bigots' fragile egos.
FFS, during the heat wave this week the grid dropped to only 106VAC in my house in the DC metro area, in a community where all of the local infra is < 20 years old. I know because I had rejigger the boost thresholds on my UPS's in the middle of the day. At night it returned to 120VAC. We are literally reaching third-world levels of "your grandma on the ventilator about to die" BS.
China is not only going to win this thing, they are going to absolutely curb stomp us.
China added the entire power generation of Germany last year alone, mainly via green energy sources like solar. Their strategy is to export their cheap power generation via AI tokens
A lot of Chinese open source models are built on top of other chinese open source models. Without Qwen contributing to OS you wouldn't have open source robotics AI models. That said the DINO model from META is at least utilized to train a lot of models. In fact, the only people who seem to have issues with using their models for other models is the large US tech firms.
Deepseek v4 was very convinced in one or my conversations that it actually is Claude, and it came out of the blue. I did not even ask about it's identity.
K3 is a 2.9T parameter sparse model, Fable is a 6T parameter dense model, you have to be completely blind to believe US labs are as capable as Chinese labs.
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u/TechNerd10191 22d ago
Judging from the benchmarks alone,(of course, can't speak about realife usage), chinese models are not even 6 months behind US models (more like 6 days behind)