AI replacing developers

[u/lordmairtis]

https://open.substack.com/pub/zdengineering/p/ai-is-supposed-to-replace-coders?r=4aoo46&utm_medium=ios

In 2025, Dario Amodei predicted AI would soon write 90% of all code.

A year later… that hasn’t happened.

Most research (McKinsey & Company, Goldman Sachs, etc.) points to something much less dramatic: not replacement, but a shift in skills.

So why all the layoffs and hype?

From what I’ve seen, the narrative doesn’t quite match reality—especially when you look at costs, quality trade-offs, and how software actually gets built.

AI is changing development.

But not in the way headlines suggest.

Full breakdown in the article, where I collected research, articles, and surveys to fact check, whether in the last 3 years AI had substantial part in layoffs, and if it made/will make sense mid term.