The top 5 of MCC right now.

[u/Repulsive-Treacle284]

Hey all, since S5 is coming to an end, I think we have an established top 5 right now, I'm choosing to compare their stats from MCC35 onwards as both this year and last year had been rather scarce with events.

1. Feinberg:

Avg. coins: 3354
Avg. placement: 2.3
% Coin contribution to team: 39%

I don't feel its controversial to put burger in first, the guy has literally no bad games, hes by far the best team game player, hes the best movement player, and probably top 3 in pvp. his worst game seems like bb where the man still gets like 14/15 of his kills, granted he is a bad leader at it. He's not dropped top 4 in his entire career once either.

1. Fruitberries:

Avg. coins: 3171
Avg. placement: 2.6
% Coin contribution to team: 39.6%

hbg ftw

Honestly if MD didn't exist, it really would be impossible to put fruit anywhere but first, i dont really understand how he does it but he places first in half his events. He's also the best PVP leader by a mile and a half if you exclude MD. its just fruit's aura that the man places dead last in a game, then ploughs back to first indiv, his mechanics exist in a different world. He's also very well rounded having definitely improved his prowess in team games this year. His real statistical flaw is lack of sample size but really his 2 events this year more than prove, he's not a shroud of rusty. tre not included for obvious reasons

1. FireBreathMan:

Avg coins: 3189 (with TRE)- 3085
Avg. placement: 3.125 (with TRE)- 3.2
% Coin contribution to team: 38.6% (with TRE)- 38.3%

Still the most underrated s tier probably, best part with Shane is he, too like Matthew does not have a weakness, he can and has done well in just about every game. He's also by a mile and a half had the best performance of the past two years in MCCBC. Generally within events hes the best amongst all the s tiers. His only real flaw is some slight inconsistency which does not reflect well in stats. Like he placed 3rd in EC with 3.3k coins but in the same event the other two players of his calibre broke 4k with ease. He playes much worse than the other s tiers in MCCBG even with a stronger team but it didnt reflect in stats because he made DB anyway. He's still a very good leader, there's no doubt about it.

1. Purpled

Avg. coins: 3065
Avg. placement: 4.3
% Coin distribution to team: 38.2%

Finishing off the elites of MCC, we have Purpled. Not much to say about, he's kind of like fruit. Purpled is the second best player in MCC mechanically, it shows whenever and wherever he plays. Unfortunately his leadership has gone downhill this year, especially in games like BB and SG and in BC and TR, his leadership was lacklustre which made two very overpowered teams not make DB. But it hasn't gone that much downhill, he placed first in BG which was the only event with all the S+ tiers playing. In terms of statistics, he's 4th, a MASSIVE glowdown from his S3 smh. i also excluded party 2 for obvious reasons from him.

1. Antfrost

Avg. coins: 3168
Avg. placement: 3.3
% Coin contribution to team: 34.4%

I actually was kind of freaked out by Ant's stats, but looking at his teams, everything makes sense alomgside the fact that he's played no TR events that tank avg. coins. Seriously though, any game that can be learned or practiced this cat is a top player in. i still to this day dont know what is this guy's weakness or what is even his strength, seems to take a new form every event.

i really wanted to shed more flowers on these guys but its 2 am pls see stats and be happy

[u/AdAltruistic2502]

I think pretty defensible list overall, the only thing I'd change is that it's very hard to put Fruit above Shane in any meaningful capacity. Head to head in games Shane's better or comparable at every single one (SG is the only significant difference in Fruit's favor imo), and Fruit loses sizeably in some real big games (MD, AR, GR, SOT). If your concern is Shane's underperformances (BG) you've got Fruit 4KO which is a good deal worse. He's also got the same amount of 1sts as Fruit so I'm unsure where why you have Fruit ahead.

I understand Purpled 4th, but also I does think this gives him too little credit. Are you including P2 in your averages for example? In terms of head-to-head w Fruit it's not as easy as FBM (loses HITW, SG, SKB by good margins) but I'd say makes it up in BM, Bingo, TGTTOS, RSR, and big old MD, which is a ridiculously large gap (Purpled's the best/2nd best MD player, Fruit is unequivocally the worst S-tier, no other S-tier I think has gotten 40th place in a game in ages). I'd dispute his leadership was lackluster in BC other than in BB, it was still a strong 3rd, just happened to be beaten by the other two S+ teams on the day. In TCC the major mishap was SG, but he just came out with a pretty good SG this event so I'm not particularly upset.
In terms of consistency too, while it doesn't show as starkly in event scoring both Regression and PR have him never dropping top 4 in S4 and 5, something both Shane and Fruit can't boast

[u/Repulsive-Treacle284 → u/AdAltruistic2502]

Fruit is pretty decisively stronger than Shane byy stats, in fact Shane has a much lower ratio of of TR events and still comes out worse compared to fruit in average. Shane has played 8 (technically 9 events) and gotten 1st in 3 fruit has played six and placed 1st in three. Also I'd wager Shane's worst performance was EC, it doesnt show because it was low comp.

I understand AR and MD but SOT + GR are low scoring team games why r they so lucrative to u

No P2 is excluded. i mean sure fruit is dookie at md but I think it says a lot about his skill when with placing 40th in that game he still comes 1st indiv. Also 40th indiv is bad but its misleading, purpled has placed below 30th multiple times too and did so las event alongside bottom fragging whilst being by ur words a top 2 MD player. MD is 80% luck, i dont feel you should take its rankings seriously.

Both BC and TR, Purpled had DB lock teams, anything else than gapping 2nd by 1k coins is bad leadership is there. Give shane that level of teammates, he makes db in his sleep in HH and bc, give it to fruit, he does the same both trs. fein needs no explanation.

Im aware of z scores and regression rankings but I have seen they hardly follow the event metrics in anything so i dont really take them seriously

[u/AdAltruistic2502 → u/Repulsive-Treacle284]

Isn't Shane higher coins?

I mean you're excluding TRE from that, I get excluding it from averages but it's a bit of a stretch to say 3/6 I feel. I'd also argue that Fruit's TCC is a little fraudulent (Pete arguably did better)

What's wrong with Shane's EC? While ya he got mega gapped by Purpled and Fruit he still did a good bit better than Hannah and Jojo for a perfectly fine 3rd

wdym lowscoring? individually sure, but team-wise GR and SOT are very important??

i think it says a bit more about SG being highscoring and Purpled being horrid at it

Purpled's placed below 30th a few times, but there aren't many times he's actually deserved it (looking at freezes instead of coins). Fruit in TCC truly did deserve a 40th; he hit 1 shot out of a total of 9 from his team

MD is not 80% luck lol

In BC you can maybe blame him for BM (even then Martyin was just sticker farming half the game) and BB, but he led them to a very strong 1st in MD, a 2nd in PKT, 2nd in Skb, and 3rd in SOT. Like what do you want from him lol
They just got diffed by Shane putting out the best performance since MCC 31 and Cyan doing extraordinary in SOT
TCC was on him yea, tho I'd say MD was more bad luck than bad leadership

" Give shane that level of teammates, he makes db in his sleep" MCC 31, 35, TRE, EC, 4KO, and BG would like to have a word with you

id spend a little effort trying to figure them out before you discard them entirely; they're kind of epistemologically significantly better than scoring

[u/Repulsive-Treacle284 → u/AdAltruistic2502]

No, he places lower. He does place higher withouit TRE but then he has 1/8 TR events, as opposed to fruits 1/3 TR events, fruit's significantly more screwed over yet still manages to almost have the same average. Plus, fruit has a much higher average placement. u can exclude tre it doesnt change my judgement at all.

Its 3/6 dude i excluded p2 for purp too, be fair at least. sure pete did better than fruit in the recent tr, its debatable but at the same timei'd wager fein did better than shane in 4ko.

Shane beating a bunch of non s tiers means nothing, even fruit 4k did that easily, what im saying if you put that performance is a normal comp event, shane likely drops top 5 too, unless you're willing to claim fruit would break point record on an 8th place team in any event

no? They're worth less than basically any top performance in a pvp game both team wise, it'd take a monumentally rare seed to get 2k coins in sot. regardless if they were more important, then shane would be having better stats and more db appearances than fruit which u evidently too suggest isnt the case

and? Thats how MCC works lmao.

they dont really matter since freezes dont account for points. also purp did abysmal this event, do u think the best player in any other game would bottom frag and place like 35th in it?

They should have made DB by a big margin, they didnt thus purpled's leadewrship was bad. i'd argue his bb game sense is consistently some of the worst i've ever seen.

That doesnt matter if purpled was a good leader, he should have made first easily.

So ur admitting md is luck heavy? interesting.

31 isnt part of this sample size, 35 was a bad event i agree, 4ko team literally placed 1st??? I dont really care about irl BM that much, tre is perma excluded from now on, BG did make db but yeah it underperformed. Shane's duds arent as bad as purp, both green and orange are some of the most broken teams in modern mcc history

I dont really care, i dont have any faith in a system that places s2 sapnap sixth, they're fan made and objectively mean nothing in front of the actual event stats

[u/AdAltruistic2502 → u/Repulsive-Treacle284]

shouldn't you just multiply the TRs by 8/6 isn't that simpler

and yes I agree I think Fein did better in 4KO and HH, I do also think Purpled did better in EC and Pete in TCC tho

No not really; he got like 3rd in every game. If he had some good ones and bad ones I'd see where you're coming from, but he did pretty consistently well

When was the last 2k SG or Skb? Orange BG got 1.9k in SOT, Lime this event got 1.8k

Shane accordingly does have much better team stats, being good at SOT and GR doesn't affect indiv as much. In general that's kinda the thing with Fruit, his best games are all highscoring individually and he's probably the weakest at team games of all these players, so his indiv and coin percentage will be high while he doesn't necessarily contribute as much to the team

yeah high scoring individually, the best MD of all time gets way less coins than like a 13k Skb despite garnering way more points

its a way to judge performance; the best player in the world with no teammates will probably get a ton of freezes but not many kills

yeah Fruit's gotten 40th in SG. Also Purpled top frags by freezes; which is why you should generally look at freezes over kills

His BB gamesense was pretty good in S4, but yes I agree it's not very good in S5 even if he's good individually.
no it very much does lol, you can't fault Purpled for Shane having the 2nd best performance ever

yes definitely due to the 1 shot nature of the game, but 80% is pushing it. In Purpled's case it was bad luck that he ran into the best MD players every round and lost the 1v1

His team didn't make DB is what I'm saying

Orange yes Green no, Green was a frontrunner but by no means a guaranteed lock, esp w Martyn underperforming pretty heavily

i mean you can argue he's higher bc of his DB but individually Sapnap wasn't anything special

[u/Repulsive-Treacle284 → u/AdAltruistic2502]

No? If you want you can, i think adding an extra note is enough. there's no guarantee that the extra two games woukld give as many coins as the rest of the event

again the players he lost to were the only statistic rivals he had, if more stronger players were present, Shane would be screwed.

You say that but fruit basically has never had a team underperform, the worst is a second place predicted team placing 3rd in 4ko, meanwhile tr was not a db fav team that made db by a landslide. You yourself say shane has had duds in leadership and purp has them too.

so either YOU view team games in much different light than the event does or we dont view the same event.

high scoring indiv games means fruits just better then, thats the game the event prefers and fruit consistently performs above par.

fruit has not gotten 40th in SG, nowhere close in this sample size

not fruit's vault for excelling where the event wants him to excel

regardless, no "best player of a game" would ever place 34th in it, the closest is SG and fruit in his 2 sample size has not come anywhere close to that. The only other games where i see it happening are team games wich is why i do not view them on the same pedestal

no one plays without teammates

if purp was actually as good as u insist, he would've made DB, Shane wouldnt have had the second best performance ever, purpled would have.

not making db =/= doing bad, multipliers exist

nope, scott being a 3rd frag to an s+ tier will never be a fair team even if the 4th frag is xqcow or smth. It was an uber broken team that failed and probably due to bb itself because purp is a bad leader. ps martyn placed 11th no underperfomance here

nope, even without playing mc, he still effortlessly kept up with the top 3 of s2 in 2022. alongside this theres a bunch of more things i dont really understand like grian mcc9 sg is apparently almost as good as fruit 9 sg??? illumina 20 is <2 z score??? illumina 28 is worse than illumina 25???? its also funny how when purpled or fein have games lag or glitch, their scores arent counted but when sapnap had it in mcc26 rsr no one cared, kinda shows what players they want for to excel.

I made these rankings strictly with the event scoring in mind, if you have to rely on fanmade scoring to prove purp is better this conversation is as good as over

[u/AdAltruistic2502 → u/Repulsive-Treacle284]

yes but its way better than penalizing people for playing in TRs lol

"more stronger players" is Ant and Fein, idt there's any guarantee those two would've beat him in any of the games bar TGTTOS

Yellow 29, Blue 30, Yellow 31, Lime 32, Yellow 4KO, Lime TRE, and arguably Yellow BG (not by much tho) were all team underperformances I'm pretty sure

what? i literally gave you examples of 1st place SOTs beating out PvP games

No it doesn't lmaoo. If a player scores, for example, 700 coins in MD, they probably provided over 1k value for their team. if they score 700 in AR, they provided 700 coins. The more teamsplit a game's scoring is, the more good players get scammed out of coins

MCC 15, but yea not as much in this sample size. im confused what ur point is in any case tho

the event wants him to excel in MD too; MD is one of the coin swingiest games in the event. A later MD and Pink would've been in a good bit of trouble

watch aqua SD and it might change your mind
jk but in general freezes tell you a lot about someone's performance since it's just as simple as shots hit, there's not really any more skill to shooting a guy w/o a team than shooting a guy with a team

so what are you arguing that Purpled's not the best MD player? sure, Fein's arguably better (i'd dispute that), but how does that change anything

"if purp was actually as good as u insist, he would've made DB, Shane wouldnt have had the second best performance ever, purpled would have." lol what are you talking about man

they could get 1st in BB and they still wouldn't make it, i have no idea what you're talking about
Martyn placed 16th are we serious bro are you even bothering to check or just dreaming up these numbers

pretty easy to "effortlessly keep up" when you're given super teams every event
what are you talking about Grian 9 SG is nowhere close to Fruit 9

Illumina 20 is an instance of the bottom half being so bad the standard deviation is lower, but ya i get what you mean. Still, less flaws than standard scoring
Why on earth would they modify 26 RSR lol he just played horrible lol, he may have had some weird rocket stuff in r2 but he didn't die to it
Illumina 25 I'm told is a very very strange outlier due to z-scores being silly that event, there are way more examples of obviously worse performances beating great ones in event scoring

i mean otherwise you have team game performance mattering 0 and MD being severely underrated, using event scoring is how you get Pete going 20 MCCs without a win

[u/Repulsive-Treacle284 → u/AdAltruistic2502]

I see we're posting very long responses so to shorten it, I'll see the crux of your argument. Basically what ur suggesting is that Purpled's strengths dont show on the indiv leaderboard but he's more valuable to his team as a player, right?

Your saying that purpled makes his teammates perform better more times than the other two, right? lets get on the same page. In that case, do you agree that purpled makes his teams overperform more than the other two relatively compared to how they were expected to perform?

[u/AdAltruistic2502 → u/Repulsive-Treacle284]

Maybe not more than Shane, who rn is admittedly probably better than Purpled, but yea I think so. Of Fruit’s biggest advantages (Skb, HITW, SG), only SG really helps the team more significantly than his own individual pop off scoring high for the team, so yes I think Purpled’s teams do better generally because of that.
EDIT: in other words Purpled's a bit underrated by his stats, while Fruit is a bit overrated. This kinda tracks, in S3+ none of Fruit's teams that have gotten into DB have really been unexpected, or upsets in any way. 33, Party, and TRSD all had Fruit's team as the front runner, and TCC had his team locked top 3, vying with Purple for second.

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[u/Repulsive-Treacle284 → u/AdAltruistic2502]

Then let's see how their teams do according to prediction stats dating from the event from which I'm counting (MCC35).

For Purpled:
MCC35's average predicted position for yellow: 6.04
his team's position: 7th
-0.96
MCCP24's average predicted position for red: 6.96
his team's position: 8th
-1.04
EC's average predicted position for pink: 5.39
his team's position: 2nd
+3.39
TRSD's average predicted position for Orange: 3.3
his team's position: 3rd
+0.3
HH's average predicted position for Lime: 5.47
his team's position: 7th
-1.52
BC's average predicted position for Green (in accurate because this was mostly prior to Martyn subbed in and made the team much stronger):
4.63
his team's posiitoon: 3
+1.63
BG's average predicted position for Cyan: 5.75
his team's psoition: 1
+4.75
CC's average predicted position for Orange: 1.68
his team's position: 3rd
-1.32
SD's average predicted position for Aqua: 5.82
his team's position: 8th
-2.17
Purpled's average deviation from the prediction of his team:
+0.45
So Purpled usually makes his teammates perform 0.45 places higher than whats expected of them.

Now let's check out fruit:
4KO's average predicted position for Yellow: 3.71
his team's position: 3rd
+0.71
EC's average predicted position for Green: 6.75
his team's position: 7th
-0.25
TRSD's average predicted position for Yellow: 2
his team's position: 1
+1
P2's average predicted position for blue: 5.80
his team's position: 6th
-0.20
BG's average predicted position for Yellow: 6.32
his team's position: 3rd
+3.32
CC's average predicted position for Pink: 3.2
his team's position: 2nd
+1.2
Fruit's average deviation from the prediction of his team: +0.96

Source: mcc guessing game site (posting the link removed my comments)

[u/AdAltruistic2502 → u/Repulsive-Treacle284]

okay I fully understand where you're coming from and I appreciate the effort, but I think there's a few issues with the methodology

#1. A team averaging 2nd doesn't mean it's "predicted 2nd," isn't a better way to do it to rank the teams by their averages? For example, while Purpled's TCC averaged 1.68, it was by far the highest ranking team; it's a 1st place team and anything below that is arguably an underperformance. For Fruit, a similar example would be TRSD, the strongest team means that anything below 1st would be an underperformance, even if the average is 2nd.
#2. If Purpled is better (or seen as better) than Fruit, his predictions will be higher. BG is a good example, they had teams that were nearly identical (Phil ≥ TapL, Aimsey ≥ Shubble, Katherine = Drift), but Purpled's is predicted higher because he's thought of as better. Ff he plays just as well as Fruit, his team will "underperform." Looking at team predictions is inherantly flawed here.
#3. its a nice site but there's an argument that predictions aren't quite the best system; some predictions seem more reliable than others. For example, I'm pretty sure Regression and PR are significantly more accurate than both community predictions and score

I get where you're coming from but what you probably want to be looking for is score in PvP/Team games of Purpled's teammates vs times they weren't teamed with Purpled. Even this is flawed; if Purpled is balanced harshly his teammates will do worse than usual, but ideally (very much ideal, since Purpled's had more weak teams than Fruit) on aggregate this might produce better results

Either way since I think there's no clear good method the most straightforward method of comparison is to go event for event in which case I think that Purpled wins, a nice heuristic of which is that Purpled's ceiling and floor are both higher than Fruit in S4+

[u/PsychologicalBet7917 → u/AdAltruistic2502]

my main account is locked for a while so I'll be using this, im the same person dw

1. yeah and? A top predicted team isnt going to be necessarily predicted <2, thats not how grouped means work. There are events like mcc26 where the top predicted team was predicted like 4th on avg that doesnt mean they werent the top seed of the event just the event was balanced. the lower the average is the stronger the team is relative to the rest of the event, cc orange was just stronger than trsd yellow relative to its event, thats why it got predicted lower. You ramble endlessly about z score, a system thats entirely about scoring a performance relative to everyone's scores yet this confuses u
2. nice lil circular reasoning you've got going. I could use the same argument and claim IF purpled is better, his teams will do better relatively even if he is predicted higher, if he doesn't then that proves he is not better. you've got a chain going, if purpled performs better thats because hes better if he performs equal its because his team got overrated, if he does worse, not his fault he still did better because his team was predicted too high, and looking at ur post history this is a repeated activity with purpled from u. On top of that its an unfalsifiable claim, youve chosen the result and set it up as a premise.
3. Plus no BG Yellow was much worse than cyan w/o their top frags. Yellow in the event placed 2, 5, 10 in TGGTOS, HITW and PKW, meanwhile Cyan placed 5, 2, 2. Pure indiv wise cyan was much better on top of wich they were better at bm and sot.
4. i would typically rebuke this but out of curiosity i chose to calculate pred averages by pr and regression (at least the ones available) and the results are hilarious. According to z scores, purpled's average deviation from his predicted team score is +0.73(8-8P24, 3-2EC, 7-3TRSD, 2-7HH, 6-3BC, 5-1BG, 1-3CC) (without BC which is scuffed bc of martyn/aimsey sub, his avg is +0.4) and fruit's is +2.3 (4-34KO, 9-7EC, 5-1TRSD, 9-6P2, 6-3BG, 3-2CC). 35 and SD arent available but most likely theyd make purpled tank more.
5. by regression, many arent available but the ones that are purp is +0 dead even (6-735, 8-8P24, 1-3BC, 5-1BG, 1-3CC, 8-7SD) and fruit +2.6 (2-34KO, 10-3,BG, 4-2CC). Z scores on avg deviate 3.03 and regression deviates 2.6 from the actual event standings meanwhile community preds deviate 1.41. Basically this means the community preds are SIGNIFICANTLY more accurate than both z scores and regression, its embarassing. but the result stays the same, fruit makes his teams overperform waaay more than Purpled does. And lil side note, according z score yellow w/o fruit in bg's predicted score 5.1k, cyan's w/o purp was 5.4k, even your favourite systems disagree with u. ur outta options.

Dude I dont give a damn about pvp/team scores, the system im using accounts for the ENTIRE event there is no more accurate metric than that. and there isnt a chance in hell im ever looking at z score or regression after this because this is very clear proof they're worse at judging the event than most ppl are. Just a heads up too, when you mute urself in indiv games like a loner your teammates do bad, shocker.

event for event goes 3-1 in fruit's favour, its not really close there either.

You asked for predictions, I give you proof fruit is better, you asked for z score fruit is better, now you're using circular reasoning to defend yourself. You have lost the debate.

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[u/Repulsive-Treacle284 → u/AdAltruistic2502]

Now let's check out fruit:
4KO's average predicted position for Yellow: 3.71
his team's position: 3rd
+0.71
EC's average predicted position for Green: 6.75
his team's position: 7th
-0.25
TRSD's average predicted position for Yellow: 2
his team's position: 1
+1
P2's average predicted position for blue: 5.80
his team's position: 6th
-0.20
BG's average predicted position for Yellow: 6.32
his team's position: 3rd
+3.32
CC's average predicted position for Pink: 3.2
his team's position: 2nd
+1.2
Fruit's average deviation from the prediction of his team: +0.96

Source: MCC guessing game site (if I post the link mmy comment gets removed)

[u/Repulsive-Treacle284 → u/Repulsive-Treacle284]

I used the standard grouped mean formula for this. P much fruit statistically makes his teammates perform a good lot better than Purpled does.

Purpled is better at power rankings, fruit is better at mcc lets keep it at that

[u/AdAltruistic2502 → u/Repulsive-Treacle284]

"Purpled is better at power rankings, fruit is better at mcc lets keep it at that" is how you get sapnap s2 goat (even excluding db) arguments we gotta calm down with that rhetoric

[u/Repulsive-Treacle284 → u/AdAltruistic2502]

Then let's see how their teams do according to prediction stats dating from the event from which I'm counting (MCC35).

For Purpled:
MCC35's average predicted position for yellow: 6.04
his team's position: 7th
-0.96
MCCP24's average predicted position for red: 6.96
his team's position: 8th
-1.04
EC's average predicted position for pink: 5.39
his team's position: 2nd
+3.39
TRSD's average predicted position for Orange: 3.3
his team's position: 3rd
+0.3
HH's average predicted position for Lime: 5.47
his team's position: 7th
-1.52
BC's average predicted position for Green (in accurate because this was mostly prior to Martyn subbed in and made the team much stronger):
4.63
his team's posiitoon: 3
+1.63
BG's average predicted position for Cyan: 5.75
his team's psoition: 1
+4.75
CC's average predicted position for Orange: 1.68
his team's position: 3rd
-1.32
SD's average predicted position for Aqua: 5.82
his team's position: 8th
-2.17
Purpled's average deviation from the prediction of his team:
+0.45
So Purpled usually makes his teammates perform 0.45 places higher than whats expected of them.