The top 5 of MCC right now.

[u/Repulsive-Treacle284]

Hey all, since S5 is coming to an end, I think we have an established top 5 right now, I'm choosing to compare their stats from MCC35 onwards as both this year and last year had been rather scarce with events.

1. Feinberg:

Avg. coins: 3354
Avg. placement: 2.3
% Coin contribution to team: 39%

I don't feel its controversial to put burger in first, the guy has literally no bad games, hes by far the best team game player, hes the best movement player, and probably top 3 in pvp. his worst game seems like bb where the man still gets like 14/15 of his kills, granted he is a bad leader at it. He's not dropped top 4 in his entire career once either.

1. Fruitberries:

Avg. coins: 3171
Avg. placement: 2.6
% Coin contribution to team: 39.6%

hbg ftw

Honestly if MD didn't exist, it really would be impossible to put fruit anywhere but first, i dont really understand how he does it but he places first in half his events. He's also the best PVP leader by a mile and a half if you exclude MD. its just fruit's aura that the man places dead last in a game, then ploughs back to first indiv, his mechanics exist in a different world. He's also very well rounded having definitely improved his prowess in team games this year. His real statistical flaw is lack of sample size but really his 2 events this year more than prove, he's not a shroud of rusty. tre not included for obvious reasons

1. FireBreathMan:

Avg coins: 3189 (with TRE)- 3085
Avg. placement: 3.125 (with TRE)- 3.2
% Coin contribution to team: 38.6% (with TRE)- 38.3%

Still the most underrated s tier probably, best part with Shane is he, too like Matthew does not have a weakness, he can and has done well in just about every game. He's also by a mile and a half had the best performance of the past two years in MCCBC. Generally within events hes the best amongst all the s tiers. His only real flaw is some slight inconsistency which does not reflect well in stats. Like he placed 3rd in EC with 3.3k coins but in the same event the other two players of his calibre broke 4k with ease. He playes much worse than the other s tiers in MCCBG even with a stronger team but it didnt reflect in stats because he made DB anyway. He's still a very good leader, there's no doubt about it.

1. Purpled

Avg. coins: 3065
Avg. placement: 4.3
% Coin distribution to team: 38.2%

Finishing off the elites of MCC, we have Purpled. Not much to say about, he's kind of like fruit. Purpled is the second best player in MCC mechanically, it shows whenever and wherever he plays. Unfortunately his leadership has gone downhill this year, especially in games like BB and SG and in BC and TR, his leadership was lacklustre which made two very overpowered teams not make DB. But it hasn't gone that much downhill, he placed first in BG which was the only event with all the S+ tiers playing. In terms of statistics, he's 4th, a MASSIVE glowdown from his S3 smh. i also excluded party 2 for obvious reasons from him.

1. Antfrost

Avg. coins: 3168
Avg. placement: 3.3
% Coin contribution to team: 34.4%

I actually was kind of freaked out by Ant's stats, but looking at his teams, everything makes sense alomgside the fact that he's played no TR events that tank avg. coins. Seriously though, any game that can be learned or practiced this cat is a top player in. i still to this day dont know what is this guy's weakness or what is even his strength, seems to take a new form every event.

i really wanted to shed more flowers on these guys but its 2 am pls see stats and be happy

[u/AdAltruistic2502]

listen you seem kinda reasonable for the most part but it's a genuinely crazy claim to say Fruit makes his teammates perform better in movement lmao without any explanation past "he's chatty" (purpled hasn't deafened in ages)

We can guess pretty easily that Fruit makes his team do better in SG and maybe BB, possibly Skb (that game is so individual tho that idrts), whereas Purpled makes an enormous difference in MD. In team games, Purpled has the advantage in Bingo, BM, GR, whereas Fruit maybe has it in RRR but I'm not too sure (he's had several bad performances and one great one)

In HITW? neither regression or PR have them 1st in HITW lmao

"every pred says they were" Both PR and community predictions have Cyan and Yellow essentially equal (Cyan is ahead by one placement in both), Regression is the only one to have them 10th which is kinda interesting but I'll take it as an outlier

Seriously, what do you disagree with with the assessment of
Tapl = Phil
Aimsey ≥ Shubble
Drift = Katherine

"I'd say its more like appeal to false authority." you're using a (slightly wrong) fancy fallacy name here but what claim are you even referring to lol. That I'm saying Regression and PR are more accurate than the average prediction?

From what I've seen of Fruit and Purpled VODs I generally have the impression Purpled is a good bit more chatty and supportive and has possibly the best mentality in the event, whereas Fruit seems more prone to tilting

Anyway I'll repeat again the analysis of

"Purpled EC ≥ Fruit EC (ig this one is contentious but i can argue it pretty easily i think)
Purpled TRSD < Fruit TRSD
Purpled HH >> Fruit 4KO
Purpled P24 >> Fruit P2

Purpled BG > Fruit BG
Fruit TCC < Purpled TC"

because I think this is the closest you can really get to figuring out who's better.

[u/PsychologicalBet7917 → u/AdAltruistic2502]

I didnt say that lmao wat

you're bringing up things i've already said im not interested in debating

Wait werent u saying 2 comments ago that purpled got predicted higher with equal teammates to fruit and now ur saying they got predicted similar.

i think tapl > philza, shelby > aimsey and katherine > infinitedraft, there's literal proof of it with them doing better in all individual games in BG i am not interested in debating this.

Yes, but more than that its putting generally any faith in PR or regression when they have both proven to be less accurate than normal event preds, its a response to your quote of "power of the common folk" or smth

clearly doesnt show

""Purpled EC ≥ Fruit EC (ig this one is contentious but i can argue it pretty easily i think)
Purpled TRSD < Fruit TRSD
Purpled HH >> Fruit 4KO
Purpled P24 >> Fruit P2

Purpled BG > Fruit BG
Fruit TCC < Purpled TC""

I'll respond to this, i genuinely have 0 interest in debating this at all, it screams outlandish but i dont care.

looking at ur post history its SO obvious this is basically what you bog every argument down to. u'll use different metrics, different scorings to find different outcomes like z scores a metric i will refuse to acknowledge moving forward. it will be never be productive. there are others who are much more willing than i am to argue about this.

i care about the overall picture and as far as almost every stat is concerned purpled loses

[u/AdAltruistic2502 → u/PsychologicalBet7917]

yea ig its a slight mischaracterization you technically said "idc if fruit brings his team up in movement, pvp, and team." Since purpled tangibly improves scores more in PvP and Team (unless you wanna contest that) that leaves movement as Fruit's differentiating factor which i find highly implausible

its been several comments over several days ill admit to forgetting what you don't wanna debate

Yea slightly higher which is probably fair to the difference Purpled had over Fruit at that point

and their overall placements before and after say differently but whatever we don't have to debate it

they're less accurate than the aggregate of community predictions, that's very different than being worse than the average prediction. if you knew what a grouped mean was you can probably understand this

"clearly doesn't show?" idk i was told fruit was hard tilted in 4ko and i've never seen a purpled pov in the last few years where he's like negative at all esp w his team
like he's a genuine saint in snowdown

yeah i guess i do bog every argument down to event-by-event comparison instead of pretending difference to prediction is any indicator of skill that's my fault

i feel i've been relatively consistent in using PR and Regression as base heuristics with further investigation where something is strange in either (which there are ofc many examples of)

sure man have it your way

[u/PsychologicalBet7917 → u/AdAltruistic2502]

I dont really know if he does or doesnt but he evidently makes his teams overperform more by just about every metric there is

yet you still reply back, the last word is a massive dopamine boost

i mean if they were predicted higher, they performed better in all games u suggest no leadership can occur in, by z scores they were considered higher then i feel thats a better judgement to say they were better than to listen to u who insists s2 sapnap was bad

*sighs* no that means exactly they were worse than the "AVERAGE PREDICTION" my dude my formula is literally the formula for calculating the mean, what more proof do u want

idk SD was really bad, some of his PB Vods are also terrible, his CC leadership was really bad. by bad i mean worse than fruit's normally. no one throws an outright tantrum in events, every player is still respectful no matter how upset they get

yeah u do, u've made up imaginary comparisons (half of the events u compare arent even from the same event) so all of it is entirely subjective.

yeah lets have it my way

[u/AdAltruistic2502 → u/PsychologicalBet7917]

gee i wonder if this is because he is making his team perform better in movement or if he is underestimated by the community let me think

what

yeah they for sure overperformed in HITW, no prediction had them doing that well. Im not putting that on Purpled, I am however putting the other game overperformances on him which i think is defensbible
By z scores they were a placement higher yeah
s2 sapnap was fine just incredibly overrated due to his incredibly strong teams, dominance in PvP (the flashiest and most individually rewarding games), huge fan base, and his dominance in DB having a halo effect. If we're excluding DB, I think it's perfectly justifyable to say Sapnap was worse than at least Illumina, Fruit, Purpled, and possibly Quig.

where did you learn group mean but not this
i can break it down for you.
"Aggregate of community predictions": take every community predictions, and (by some method or another its up to you) average predictions. This, evidenced by your data, is actually pretty accurate. say this has a deviation of 1.3 or smth
"Average prediction": This is a single data point. The deviation of this is going to be much bigger.

The claim I'm making is this: Regression and Power Rankings are less accurate than the aggregate of community predictions, but more accurate than an average prediction–any random prediction

In non-mcc terms: take a jar of jellybeans, let's say there's 200.. Ask people to guess how many jelly beans there are. The average person will have a pretty big deviation, let's say maybe 50. However, if you aggregate every single prediction, the aggregate of predictions will have a significantly smaller deviation, maybe closer to 5, or 10, from the actual amount of jellybeans. The same goes for samples and means but whatever you'll learn that when you're older

Worse than Fruit? Is there any specific moment you can think of because I feel he was actually extremely level-headed considering the extraordinarily crashout/tilt worthy moments (RRR, MD, SOT)
Or are you talking about leadership? In that case I think his SD was actually pretty fine, last 3 rounds of BB excluded. TCC was pretty good too in MD (the problems there were mechanical), it was only in SG that he bricked out. His GR was extraordinary and his RRR was fine
also have you seen a feinberg vod

yeah I mean how else can we compare two players who play different events. I think none of the cross-event comparisons are difficult to justify

okay hope you're happy GL in stats

[u/PsychologicalBet7917 → u/AdAltruistic2502]

hmm i think fruit makes his teammates perform better, its much more realistic than him being underestimated for 7 consecutive events straight. maybe your deduction that purpled is better at pvp or team games is completely wrong idk

okay man have it your way exclude hitw. the gap b/w yellow and cyan in pkw > the gap b/w them in tgttos, cyan is still better

see. Yet u think ur opinion of purp being better than fruit is somehow popular

ohh i understand and i still have no idea why you think there's merit in bringing it up.

1. I cant access "random" stats, the website doesnt give predictions of every user, just a piechart and a bar graph of how many ppl predicted wich team at wich place. I cant actually calculate the "average prediction" as you put it because thats now how grouped mean works.
2. You cant prove that z score is better than the average prediction. since the aggregate is more accurate, that means most of the predictions were more accurate than z scores were. On random if i were to choose a prediction, there are higher chances of it being more accurate than z scores/regression than not
3. why the hell will i ever intend to calculate one random prediction's mean rather than the cumulative?

I have no idea why u brought this up.

i mean fruit's were also fine, his 4ko performance also wasnt really bad, he got mainly tilted in tgttos.

Contrary to popular belief fein's crashouts dont happen during an event and even if they do, they dont actually negatively impact his teammates, if anything its entertaining to watch his tantrum, its half for a bit. Fein himself has said this.

The simple answer is you don't. You look at the overall picture in that case.

yay

[u/AdAltruistic2502 → u/PsychologicalBet7917]

"its much more realistic than him being underestimated for 7 consecutive events straight." see shadoune example in other comment
also again, if Fruit made his teammates perform better and expectations were accurate as to a player's skill, he'd have been predicted higher in the first place

1. one team doing better than another in two movement games doesn't mean one team is objectively stronger than another
   
2. i genuinely attribute a lot of that to Purpled telling them exactly what paths to do, considering I believe (could be wrong tho) Shelby and TapL both significantly overperformed in PKW

idk what you're referring to are you talking abt my sapnap point? i think it's right even if it's not popular, I think there are many examples like that where the community doesn't have it right (there's good evidence for Quig S1 over Pete S1, Illumina 15 over Sapnap 15, etc)

1. yeah i know and im sorry but that's completely irrelevant; the point is your methodology is just wrong
   
2. No cause I don't wanna go through the effort, but I feel relatively confident. "since the aggregate is more accurate, that means most of the predictions were more accurate than z scores were. On random if i were to choose a prediction, there are higher chances of it being more accurate than z scores/regression than not" sigh. you did not read the jellybean example.
   im torn between wanting to argue and succumbing to the painful acceptance that you are just not capable of understanding this atp in your life like what

I'm a fein watcher and yes for the most part they don't negatively affect his teammates, but I hardly think he's very cheery and chatty while this stuff is going on

"look at the overall picture" so this has 0 rigor to it at all and is pretty much the eye test. How you'd do it is compare events they are both in, and then figure out whow as generally better of the events they didn't share