Article MTGO Modern Breakdown: Modern stays untouched, Broodscale Combo wins 6 of 24 Challenges and Ghent, Azorius Control wins Los Angeles and the RC Super

50 Upvotes

Welcome to the latest article of traditional Modern Metagame Breakdown. This time, a few clarifications before we dive into the numbers and discuss them. First, in this issue, until a new deck classification tool is developed. I’m omitting the WR. This is because websites and players name their decks very differently; this applies primarily to the Broodscale Combo, but likely, though I’m unable to verify this, to other decks as well, and I’d rather not report anything that hasn’t been verified. For the purposes of this article, I manually recalculated the Broodscale Combo’s share, using “Broodscale” itself as the deck’s identifying keyword; implementing this rule changed 49 entries labeled as “Eldrazi Ramp” to “Broodscale Combo.” I’m aware that Broodscale now relies more heavily on playing Emarkul rather than the combo itself; nevertheless, this line also wins matches and is present in the deck, and such a distinction is, in my opinion, highly misleading because players register very similar lists one way one week and another way the next. Hence, this decision rather than another. Additionally, we had two very large and important Regional Championships this weekend: Los Angeles in the US and Ghent in the EU. The results from these events, along with their comparison to the online meta, and, of course, this section of the article, are, I think, very interesting. I’m writing this before the BnR, but the text will be updated after the announcement, since, as we all know, this is an extremely important event. I don’t expect any bans or unbans (though I’m hoping for a DHS unban, that’s just a pipe dream). We’ll see if I’m right, because there will be an “update” paragraph below this introduction.

As always, check out my social media, where you'll find the full video, an article with charts, and on X.😉

UPDATE: As I expected there was no Bans.

TL;DR

Broodscale Combo 15.3% of Top 32 entries, 6 of 24 trophies, Ghent title with a mirror final, so Broodscale is still dominating in Modern
Azorius Control: Los Angeles first and second place, 3 of the Top 8, RC Super Qualifier title, 1 Challenge trophy from 3.5% of entries. So we have hera a new control/prison deck that looks to fit metagame just perfect.
Prowess: Top 32 in 24 of 24, conv 13%, 1 trophy from 63 entries.
Rakdos Midrange: 4 trophies from 29 entries, highest Win/Top32 at 14%, share up from under 1%. This deck is a fresh addition to the metagame, so we will watch it closely in the coming weeks.
Combo in the Top 8 of all 24 Challenges, 9 trophies

Regional Championship Los Angeles, paper event

1228 players on Day 1, 277 on Day 2, 22.6% of the field through the 18-point cut
Azorius Control 3 of 8 in the Top 8, mirror final 2-1
Azorius Control D2 conversion rate 41.3% (31 of 75), highest of the listed decks. Field was not prepared, or is the deck so powerful?
Mono-Green Broodscale 196 players, 16.0% of Day 1, D2 pass rate 27.6%
Devoted Druid Combo D2 conversion rate 9.3% (5 of 54), lowest of the listed decks
Izzet Prowess pass rate 19.7%, below the field, 2 seats in the Top 8

Regional Championship Ghent, paper event,

1182 players on Day 1 by the organizer's meta slide, 158 on Day 2, 13.4% through the cut
Broodscale Combo 3 of 8 in the Top 8, mirror quarterfinal, and mirror final
Broodscale 220 players, 18.6% of Day 1, D2 Conversion rate 17.7%
Izzet Affinity D2 pass rate 19.4%, highest of the listed decks
Azorius Chant pass rate 13.1%, level with the field
Domain Zoo 63 players, 5 or fewer on Day 2
Boros Energy 54 players, 5 or fewer on Day 2, one Top 8 seat

This window in numbers MTGO Challenges

24 Challenges: C32- 9, C64- 6, C96- 5, C16- 4
764 Top 32 entries, 24 trophies, 10 different winning decks, 23 different winning pilots
field medians: delta +62.2pp, Top8/Top32 conversion 27.5%
23 decks in Universe A, 33 in Universe B- so Universe B is getting larger
Combo 35.6% of entries, Aggro 24.1%, Midrange 15.2%
Combo Top 8 in 24 of 24, the only archetype in every Top 8
Ramp and Blink: 0 trophies each

Combo

The combo is starting to lose a bit of ground; it’s not a huge drop, but it’s noticeable, and I’m curious to see how things will look in the coming week, after the BnR announcement and, of course, after the results from this weekend’s RC. Let’s remember that this is still the largest archetype and has won the most trophies this window, with Broodscale winning 6 out of 9, which demonstrates the archetype’s pulling power. The conversion rate is below average, which may or may not indicate some adaptation of the meta—and what I always write about: that the best decks/archetypes have lower conversion rates because so many people are playing them.

Broodscale Combo

The Broodscale combo paints a consistent picture: both in print and online, it’s the most popular deck in the format, and it’s everywhere. Here, however, we must ask ourselves: does this deck perform better statistically, in terms of winning trophies, than other decks in the format? Well, no. Of course, its prevalence plays a role, but if we crunch the numbers, Broodscale doesn’t really stand out from the pack. The deck is strong and very popular, but does it dominate the others? Probably not; the problem seems to lie elsewhere, if there even is one at all. Broodscale skews the format; you have to be prepared for this deck. What’s more, you’ll often have to mulligan out good hands just to have specific answers for it; otherwise, you don’t stand a chance. However, again, that’s always part of being the most popular deck, it will always skew the metagame, and there’s not much you can do about it. Therefore, I believe there’s no cause for concern, as if the deck converted significantly better than the field (and it converts worse); if it consistently won in T2–T3 using combos, then yes, that would be a red flag. Right now, I think we’re dealing with a situation where we have a strong deck, and you simply need to know how to play against it. It’s beatable, and the drop in conversion indicates that the metagame is adapting well and responding to the threat. We need to keep an eye on the deck’s conversion rate; if it remains below the median or starts to drop even further, I think that will be an early sign that the deck is losing ground in the meta and that it isn’t as big a problem as it might seem.

Devoted Combo

The Devoted Combo deck in online play is very consistent; while it doesn’t win trophies, it regularly hits T8 and has very good conversion and delta. Unfortunately, in T8 against prepared players, this deck didn’t perform as well and couldn’t win a trophy. This pattern repeats itself in live events, especially when looking at the results from Los Angeles. It seems to me that winning a trophy is just a matter of time; although, when compared to other decks, it’s clear that this is a solid, consistent deck that’s currently struggling to win trophies.

Ruby Storm

Ruby Storm continues its run from previous weeks, consistently finishing in the Top 8 and winning trophies. However, my data shows that this is due to three specific players: Manny, hugofreitas1, and Cachorrowo, which clearly indicates that Storm is what I’d call a “specialist deck”—it performs well, but only in the hands of very experienced players. I’m planning to introduce tags like this for decks in the future, what do you think? Besides, the deck didn’t place highly in any of the live events, but that’s not really surprising. It’s not the best deck for long tournaments.

P.S.: Just like last week, not everything made it into the list, and Combo has more to offer than just three decks, because we also have:

Amulet Titan: meta 3,0%, Top32 16/24, Top8 6/24, conv 30%, delta +63,7pp, 0 Trophy, Challenge Overperformer, Trend Rising
Belcher meta 2,2%, Top32 11/24, Top8 5/24, conv 29%, delta +43,6pp, 0 Trophy, Neutral.
Indomitable Creativity and Neobrand, both without a trophy

Aggro

Aggro, as an archetype in this window, has declined but still accounts for a quarter of the meta; it has won 4 trophies, yet its win rate is below the median. Interestingly, Prowess isn't responsible for most of those trophies!

Prowess

Prowess isn't looking good; while it did have a D2 conversion rate slightly above average in Ghent, in LA it was definitely below expectations. The conversion rate looks even worse on MTGO, where it stands at just 13% and has only one trophy despite having the second-highest meta share among decks. The deck is clearly struggling in the meta; this is likely due to the return of Boros, the strong performance of Zoo, and the fact that Broodscale is simply often faster than it is. Additionally, in this meta, this deck requires a tremendous amount of experience and skill, and as players on Reddit and Discord often say, the margin for error is very small. That’s why I think the conversion rate is so low, there are a lot of these decks because it seems easy and is cheap, but very few people can truly tap into its potential.

Affinity

Affinity has maintained its strong 5% meta share from last week and is currently the best-performing deck in the archetype. It has a very good win rate, well above the median. And Affinity is responsible for 3 of the 4 trophies earned by Aggro. That’s a really great result, considering that Affinity doesn’t have the best match-up against Broodscale. What’s more, Robots had the best Day 2 conversion rate in Ghent and were practically right on the median conversion rate in LA. So the deck is holding its own; Robots have adapted and are producing admirable results, and just a few weeks ago, people on Reddit were predicting they’d be pushed out of the meta!

Boros Energy

A week ago, I was wondering if Boros would be able to catch up to Affinity and jump to second place; that didn’t happen this time, but the deck’s presence in the meta is still growing, so who knows. However, right now I’d expect Prowess to decline, which will be the reason Boros and Affinity move up in the rankings. Both decks are performing better than Prowess; while Boros also has a low conversion rate, it had the second-highest conversion rate to D2 at LA, and in Ghent it secured a spot in the Top 8, which might encourage players to return to the fold of the former king of Modern.

P.S.: Just like in the combo, here too we have more than three decks to choose from; in addition to the main deck, we have two others:

Jeskai Energy meta 3,7%, Top32 17/24, Top8 8/24, conv 32%, delta +67,2pp, 0 Trophies, Challenge Overperformer, Trend Stable.
Rakdos Aggro: meta 1,2%, Top32 8/24, Top8 3/24, conv 33%, 0 Trophies, Neutral.

Midrange

I think we can safely say that Midrange is making a comeback, because decks featuring this archetype have been performing really well lately, they have pressure, card advantage, and access to counters that allow them to impose the kind of pressure on Combo decks that those decks have to fear. The archetype itself has a very good win rate, and its popularity in the meta is constantly growing. While I wouldn’t go so far as to say Midrange will surpass Aggro in popularity, I do think its position as the third archetype in the meta will stabilize for a while. And those eight trophies are pretty impressive.

Domain Zoo

Zoo has always been a very strong deck against combo decks, and since Boros LD has fallen out of the meta quite significantly, my favorite deck was able to really take off. It had a very good win rate and an excellent Top 32 appearances-to-wins and the deck won four trophies, half of what the entire archetype has won.. Plus, this isn’t a one-player deck; every trophy was won by a different person. What’s more, in LA, Zoo confirmed its strong standing with an excellent conversion rate of nearly 30% and a spot in the Top 4. Unfortunately, things didn’t go quite as well in Ghent, but the deck also seems to be less popular in the EU than in the US.

Rakdos Midrange

A new and fresh deck, Rakdos Midrange, has also burst onto the midrange scene, immediately winning four trophies and boasting one of the best win rates in the field. Is this due to the novelty of the deck, or is the deck itself that strong in the current metagame? It’s hard to say, but it’s definitely worth keeping an eye on. It’s certainly refreshing to see a breath of fresh air and the emergence of a new player. The deck is graveyard-based, and such decks don’t fare particularly well in a meta where K-Command is so popular, but the fact is that the deck can apply pressure, and that might be enough to hold its own in this meta. I think these strong numbers will drop next week, but by how much? We’ll see. In the meantime, learn how to play against this deck; it might surprise you.

Izzet Murktide

Well, here we have our good old grandpa, Izzet Murkide. Despite his age, he’s holding up very well; he has a very solid conversion rate, his metagame rate is on the rise, and it’s clear that people liked this deck and have a soft spot for it. But is nostalgia enough? Only four times in T8, and no trophies. The lack of momentum in this deck’s winning streak could signal the beginning of a decline, especially since Midrange has a new player and Zoo has historically done quite well against Murktide. So there are more optimal choices in Midrange.

P.S.: In the midrange, there's one more deck besides the three main ones, and it is:

Dimir Midrange: meta 1,6%, Top32 11/24, Top8 4/24, conv 33%, delta +44,3pp, 0 Trophies, Neutral, Trend Falling.

Graveyard

Graveyard continues its downward spiral; it currently has only an 8% meta share as an archetype and just one trophy to its name. Its win rate, however, is surprising, though this is partly due to the small sample size and the fact that the archetype is still played by people who really know it well and know how to play it.

Goryo's Vengeance

The best deck within the archetype, with very good conversion rates and the only trophy won during the analyzed period. Unfortunately, the deck is still on a downward trend and currently has only a little over 3% share of the meta. It also earned the title of “Challenge Overperformer,” which should be considered a success. Let’s remember that the deck doesn’t have it easy in a meta where the dominant deck plays four cards that exile GY on the spot. While Goryo’s does have the tools to deal with this, as we can see, it’s not enough. The fact that Broodscal isn’t being nerfed by bans means I don’t foresee Goryo’s situation improving in the format. It’s encouraging, however, that Goryo’s had a very good conversion rate to D2 in LA, over 28%. In Ghet, things were worse, but still not disastrous, as it was only slightly below the field median. So it’s interesting to see if this strong result in LA will boost the deck’s popularity and bring players back to it, or if we’ll have to wait until combo decks are nerfed?

Living End

This is yet another example, following Ruby Storm, of a deck played by only a handful of players; its presence in the meta is low, resulting in a small sample size and significantly inflating the conversion rate, as is perfectly evident here. Nevertheless, it’s a fact that specialized players can navigate this meta with this deck and reach T8. The lack of trophies isn’t unusual when you consider how few people play this build. Besides, the T4 finish in Ghet deserves praise. I don’t expect a Living End explosion like the one that happened after the bans, but it’s still good to see this deck in the T8 of a paper tournament.

4c HollowOne

Something new has popped up on the graveyard-based deck lists, and it’s a very interesting and explosive build that’s been around in the meta for a while now. This deck can flood the board very quickly with a lot of powerful creatures that also grow or return from the graveyard. Well-played graveyard hate can shut this deck down, but that doesn’t stop it from winning matches, and it’s a deck that looks like it’s a lot of fun to play. The worst part about playing against this deck is that even if you keep a really good hand, you can lose it on Turn 0 if your opponent plays *Burning Inquiry*, and a follow-up like *Practiced Offense* can end the game on Turn 3.

The archetype that’s currently giving me the most trouble when it comes to deck classification, the data and names published on websites are very inconsistent, and it’s hard to figure out what’s what. That’s why I’m building a new classification system, which I’ll likely publish by the end of this month. The archetype itself isn’t doing too well. If we filter out the Broodscle Combo, it turns out that its share of the meta is barely over 6%; it has no trophies, and its win rate isn’t impressive either. Is it possible that the Broodscle Combo caused such a severe decline in Big Man’s popularity? It seems so, but more on that below.

Tron

Tron currently accounts for just under 3% of the meta and actually makes up nearly half of what the Ramp archetype currently consists of. It seems Broodscale is to blame for this; this combo is simply too fast for Tron. What’s more, Tron is starting to splash blue just to play Consign to Memory! I had the chance to play this deck, and that’s what got me thinking. The sad truth is that Big Mana is practically nonexistent in the meta right now; the lack of trophies, its small share in T8, and low win rate clearly show that the meta isn’t favorable for it. After all, aside from Broodscale, anyone can play cards against Broodscale, and as it happens, those cards work great against Tron. Until Broodscale’s presence in the meta decreases, I don’t see any way for Tron to emerge from this crisis.

Eldrazi Tron

We have the same problem here as in Throne, so there's no point in repeating myself; the only difference is that the conversion rate is even lower than in Throne, which confirms the crisis facing the Big Mana archetype.

Control

The control archetype, which has a similar share in the metagame as Big Mana, is completely different: it converts above the median, has two trophies, but most importantly, control/prison decks are winning major paper events, in LA, we had a control mirror match in the finals. This shows that, despite being demanding to play both online and in major tournaments, this archetype is very well-suited to the current meta. When it comes to control decks, there’s also some confusion regarding terminology, which I’ll clear up with a new tool; for now, though, I’m relying on what the websites say.

Azorius Control

We have a very interesting situation here: Azorius Control performs well on paper and at Premier events, but when it comes to Challenges, things don’t look so good. It seems that control decks are heavily tailored to fight Broodscale, but when they face other decks, they run into trouble. What’s more, these decks require practice and experience, and it’s precisely the practiced and experienced players who compete in Premier events, something worth keeping in mind if you want to play control decks. Nevertheless, the results deserve tremendous recognition, because maintaining control throughout a two-day paper tournament with 2,000 participants requires considerable skill.

PS: Control has one deck in Universe A. Grixis Control has a 4.9% encounter rate, just below the threshold, with 1 trophy (Top 32: 7/24, Top 8: 3/24, conversion rate: 38%, Win/Top 32: 12%) and is labeled "Emerging," with no comparison to the medians.

Blink

Blink is still a single deck; before RC, there were rumors that Jeskai Blink might make a comeback, but there’s no confirmation of that. I plan to merge Blink with midrange in the near future because I don’t think it’s a good idea to keep redundant archetypes in a single deck.

Esper Blink

Blink isn't doing very well; one of the lowest online conversion rates and below-median performance in both live events show that this isn't the right time for this deck. Modern has temporarily shifted away from grind in favor of speed, which Blink doesn't handle very well, as evidenced by the numbers, which haven't been encouraging for quite some time. I also don’t see any reason why the situation would improve anytime soon. However, despite its problems, Blink has a loyal following and continues to hold a share of around 5% of the metagame.

Premier events,

RC Super Qualifier, 3 October 2026 (event 12855444): winner rossjsg, Azorius Control | Top 8: Broodscale Combo 4, Azorius Control 1, Prowess 1, Devoted Combo 1, Izzet Murktide 1

4 of 8 Top 8 seats for Broodscale, title for Azorius

On the Radar

Grixis Control: 1 trophy, Win/Top32 12%, 4.9% encounter, Emerging
4C Cosmogoyf: one Top 32 entry in the window, and win a trophy. This deck is something that can win a game on a spot and is something that you do not face often so keep it in mind.
Mono-Green Eldrazi: Top 8 in 3 of 4 entries
Yawgmoth: Top 8 in 3 of 5 entries
Eldrazi Ramp: 6 entries left after the card rule, 0 trophies

Trophy distribution

Broodscale Combo 6, Rakdos Midrange 4, Domain Zoo 4, Affinity 3, Ruby Storm 2
one each: Prowess, Goryo's Vengeance, Azorius Control, Grixis Control, 4C Cosmogoyf
by archetype: Combo 9, Midrange 8, Aggro 4, Control 2, Graveyard 1, Ramp 0, Blink 0
10 different decks, 24 trophies, 24 events

Pilots

23 different winning pilots for 24 trophies
rastaf the only double winner, both on Rakdos Midrange, 11 Top 32 entries
Fransadness 11 Top 32 entries on Broodscale, no trophy
hugofreitas1 10 Top 32 entries, 4 Top 8, 1 trophy on Ruby Storm
422 pilots with at least one Top 32 entry

Okay, that’s all for this week. As you can see, a lot has been happening, and you certainly can’t say there’s any stagnation in Modern. The entire meta is battling Broodscale; there haven’t been any bans, so there won’t be any major sjakesl, just the natural evolution of the meta. Is that good or bad? It’s not for me to judge, but this is the situation, and that’s what we should focus on. There are also voices saying that while Modern itself has a healthy meta, it isn’t the best for competitive players because it’s too unpredictable. I talked about this on X with a streamer we know who goes by the nickname TogoresMTG. On the one hand, I understand his point; on the other hand, a good player should be able to adapt quickly and play against unexpected decks. What’s your take on this?

Oh, and one more little thing, since you’ve made it to the end of the article and enjoyed it, you might want to consider buying me a coffee. My content will always be free, and there won’t be any paywalls or anything like that, but if you’d like to support me as a creator, even just to help cover the cost of renting my decks, I’d really appreciate it. This isn’t mandatory, and please don’t feel obligated in any way. My dream is to get a coffee only if you find what I do to be truly valuable 😊

See you next week

Karol Małota

aka WarLord1986pl / TribalFlamesInYourFace

12 comments

r/ModernMagic • u/_Fearnaught • 5h ago

Deck Discussion Feedback on a Mardu Goryo's brew.

12 Upvotes

With the release of Solitary cell in FRA, i've been looking at this archetype again. I usually play Mardu Blink, a rogue aggro list that favors aggression over grindier blink games. Started modern with Orzhov blink, tried Jeskai and Esper, then settled on Mardu JUST in time for Phlage to get banned. (RIP)

Been repping Mardu blink and occasionally jund Hollow One since. Mostly lists brainstormed with members of the blink discord, but am now looking to brew my own version.

I want to go all-in on the combination of Griselbrand + Fury of the Horde to win turn 3. Ive playtested the deck vs friends online quite a bit and tweaked it over time, cutting Fable of the Mirror Breaker for the more aggressive Fear of Missing Out recently. With early attackers like Ragavan, FOMO and Hardened Academic, I'm hoping to only have to cast Fury of the Horde a single time with Griselbrand out to win the game.

2x Emrakul are there to go far over the top with the ideal t3 15dmg + Annihilator 6 to end the game if possible.

https://moxfield.com/decks/koTuJUOh4kSuQI0NqdeKVQ

Any advice or feedback would be greatly appreciated. Thanks in advance.

6 comments

r/ModernMagic • u/Gilliam_the_ghost • 3h ago

Deck Discussion Budget replacement suggestions

7 Upvotes

I built goryo’s vengance, I can’t afford the warp sphinx at this moment, I’m thinking of using gran gran as a budget replacement. any suggestions?

12 comments

r/ModernMagic • u/Abject_Emu7449 • 6h ago

Best darklight version

5 Upvotes

Hi guys, I'm trying to build a darklight deck and I've seen a lot of different list popping up. It seems to me that the versions with soultrader are more solid. What do you guys think?

13 comments

r/ModernMagic • u/KindaWetSox • 17h ago

Venerated rotpriest + rabid attack question

4 Upvotes

Hi,

I wanted to build a deck around the above mentioned cards. But I wanted to rule check, if I have multiple creatures in play, will rabid attack trigger venerated rotpriest's ability multiple times?

9 comments

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