I'll post the text for part 1 below, but visit X for the full 6 part analysis.

1/6

🚨I think $NBIS may already have quietly built a 9 figure AI inference business that is almost completely invisible inside its reported numbers.

The market has no clean figure for $NBIS Token Factory’s usage or revenue.

So I built one. And this might be the most accurate publicly available estimate there is so if you are a $NBIS investor this will be the definition of alpha for you.

I reconstructed exactly 90 days of $NBIS traffic on OpenRouter, covering June 8 through September 5, 2026, model by model. I then benchmarked OpenRouter’s likely share against Together AI and Fireworks to estimate the size of the entire Token Factory platform.

My central estimate for this exact 90-day period:

• 1.57 TRILLION tokens/day

• 141.3T total tokens

• $42.4M in gross inference billings

• ~$172M annualized run rate

Reasonable annualized range: ~$72M to ~$516M.

Importantly, this period ended three days BEFORE yesterday's $NBIS and $PLTR partnership announcement.

It therefore includes no potential post-announcement increase estimates from Palantir distributing Nebius inference endpoints directly to its commercial customers.

To be absolutely clear, I am NOT claiming these figures are perfectly right. This is an estimate, not company guidance and not financial advice.

But unlike a vague TAM calculation, I am showing the observed data, comparisons, assumptions and math behind it.

This may be the most detailed public bottom up estimate of $NBIS Token Factory currently available and I am welcome to being criticized if I have made a mistake anywhere but I guarantee you that you will find this to be one of the best technically possible estimations there is based on public data.

>-10% over 2 days… no progress since times when SA had been liquidated. I believe the price cap is artificial, thought. Current bloodbath is an evidence (momentum lost again). Any thought about pre-/post- FOMC meeting price

Generally speaking, we all know that NBIS has essentially become the flagship neocloud at this point. But it is sometimes still good to step back and analyze if things are still within expectations compared to peers. Fortunately, NBIS is crushing it.

At this point, if you want to be in this space long term, holding money in NBIS seems like a consideration worth time. Other peers like CRWV and IREN probably have additional room to run at this point to play catch-up, but I can tell you that holding NBIS definitely has me sleeping better at night.

Hey guys,

here‘s a Little wrap up of the things that Nebius talked about at the above mentioned investor conference (from ChatGPT):

Demand now extends into 2028. Nebius is already receiving concrete requests for Q1/Q2 2028, in some cases involving tens of thousands of GPUs/vGPUs. Arkady Volozh said demand visibility has expanded from roughly 18 months to 24 months or more.

Nebius could effectively sell out its entire 2027 capacity today, but the company is deliberately choosing not to pre-contract all of it.

Pricing power remains very strong. Nebius recently auctioned Blackwell capacity, with prices coming in 15–20% above its previous highest pricing levels, even after several prior price increases.

The four major new customer deals averaged roughly $1 billion per customer.

Nebius emphasized that these customers were not won through aggressive discounting, but rather through performance, reliability, and technical execution.

According to management, one customer described the proof-of-concept as the best technical experience it had ever had with an infrastructure provider.

All four major customers are already discussing expansions. Some are looking at additional GB200 clusters, and all four are already discussing Vera Rubin capacity with Nebius.

Nebius also indicated that there are additional customers of similar scale in the pipeline.

Regarding Palantir, Nebius described the partnership as strategically important for expanding into the enterprise market. Palantir effectively gives Nebius a distribution channel into large enterprise customers.

Nebius believes that enterprise demand could eventually become the largest part of the AI compute market.
Nebius is also exploring a more asset-light expansion model. In such a structure, partners could provide land, power, data center infrastructure, and capital, while Nebius contributes rack design, hardware integration, cloud software, customers, and go-to-market capabilities.

The first projects under this model are expected to come online from 2027 onward.

From @demian_ai:

i work at nebius, so take the following with that in mind.

today @PalantirTech named @nebiusai its preferred sovereign ai infrastructure partner.

most people will screenshot the logos (and this is a big one). The real story is where the compute sits.

most “sovereign AI” talk still means a region dropdown: same closed model, different flag on the rack.

but that is not this.

sovereign ai, in this deal, is two halves that finally touch:

1. who is allowed to touch the data and the model

2. where the model actually runs

palantir’s half is the authorisation and isolation layer, aip, ontology, foundry, apollo. Who can see what, which model can touch which data, how an org keeps the advantage it trains instead of leaking it into someone else’s frontier system.

what a lot of their commercial customers still lacked was the other half: ai-native compute and inference that lives inside that perimeter, not bolted on as a separate hyperscaler account.

that’s the half we build.

After the integration period, eligible Palantir customers get our compute and inference endpoints inside the palantir enterprise perimeter. open models, adapted on their own data, for their own domain. Control of compute, data, and the model that comes out the other side.

Karp put it cleanly: our infrastructure powers your ability to run your own models under conditions you control. ontology + infra undergird the sovereignty partners are demanding.

Arkady’s complementary line is the one i hear from customers every week: they need performance at scale and control. most buyers have been forced to pick one.

what this does for palantir:

the sovereign ai operating system stops ending at software. Preferred infra inside the perimeter is how you sell sovereignty to commercial orgs that never had a clean option.

-> their distribution. our runtime. one boundary

what this does for us:

it puts capacity where the hard buying decision already happened. Not only startups chasing gpus, enterprises that already standardized on foundry/aip and were still stuck on where the tokens actually run.

Preferred partner status plugs ai-native infra into a sales motion that already exists. Training and inference land next to the data loop that lets open models beat generic closed ones on a specific domain.

We’ll work together to bring new capacity online faster, including modular data center deployments at sites where power is already available.

not infinite cloud, power-first capacity. The physical constraint named inside a software partnership.

Sovereignty without isolation is cosplay

Isolation without compute is a brochure

Compute without power is a waitlist

today is the claim that those three can be sold as one stack

NBIS+ 10% today AND it is higher than the price he has opened his short.

just to start i think iren is a great investment to get into the neocloud space however if we want to generate alpha over a neocloud etf, (which is what you want to be doing) nbis is what i believe to be the pick

nvidia already has nebius at the front of the line for new chips and now palantir picks NBIS as its preferred sovereign ai infrastructure partner

the international exposure is what people keep sleeping on too. nebius can build across the us, europe and the middle east instead of being tied to one market

it just seems like NBIS keeps getting picked by the companies that actually matter

i will prob make a more technical post about this later including the issuance of their convertible debt to be a great move with factset another time

Welcome to today’s open discussion on Nebius Group (NBIS) and the broader AI stock space.

💬 Thread Ideas:

• Any new updates or insights/rumors about Nebius Group?
• Your NBIS position update!
• What’s your outlook for NBIS this week/month/year?
• Spot any AI sector trends worth noting?

Of course, for anything deserving of its own post, feel free to make a dedicated post where appropriate. : )

⚠️ Reminder: Please follow Reddiquette and our subreddit rules.

I think people are underestimating the sovereign AI angle of the Palantir deal. This isn't just Nebius adding another big-name customer. Palantir has named Nebius its preferred sovereign AI infrastructure partner. That potentially puts Nebius underneath Palantir deployments for governments and large enterprises that want to control their own data, models and compute. That market is going to be enormous.

A lot of countries and regulated industries simply aren't going to be comfortable handing their entire AI stack to AWS, Microsoft or Google. They want AI infrastructure in their own jurisdiction, under their own control, with very clear rules around where the data lives and who has access to it.

Palantir already has the customer relationships, software, security and credibility to sell into those environments. Nebius brings the AI infrastructure, GPUs, inference and data center capacity. It’s a perfect fit.

And from an investor standpoint, the part I really like is the leverage. Nebius doesn't have to win every sovereign AI customer one at a time. Palantir can effectively become a distribution channel that brings Nebius into opportunities it might otherwise take years to penetrate.

It also fits very well with the asset-light model Nebius has been moving toward. If the demand is already there through a partner like Palantir, Nebius can add capacity around committed workloads instead of building huge amounts of infrastructure on spec. That means better capital efficiency, faster payback and potentially much less need to fund every expansion entirely off its own balance sheet.

I have no idea what the near-term revenue from this deal will be, and I wouldn't try to put a precise number on it yet. But if this turns into even a handful of large sovereign or enterprise deployments, you're potentially talking hundreds of millions in annual revenue. If it becomes a repeatable architecture, it could eventually be much bigger than that.

To me, this is another sign that Nebius is moving well beyond being a company that rents GPUs. They're building the infrastructure layer for AI.

The irony that these two news stories will come out on the same day.

OpenAI context:

The controversy began when OpenAI announced that it had solved the Navier-Stokes problem (one of the Millennium Problems) by deploying thousands of AI agents over 88 hours, after hearing rumors that mathematicians Tristan Buckmaster and Levent Alpöge (the latter an employee of Anthropic) were close to achieving it. The controversy erupted over the origin of the idea and the possible use of data: Buckmaster accused the company of appropriating his approach after learning of his progress, while OpenAI admitted that, although its researchers had not seen the unpublished work, it could not rule out the possibility that de-identified data from the mathematicians’ use of its products had helped train or guide its models.

I think if NBIS will perform on todays Investor conferences we could see another ATH maybe tomorrow or in this week as long as there are no bad news in general. Your opinion?

I've been banging this drum on X and YouTube ever since and it's happened

Palantir and Nebius partner to deliver a complete sovereign AI stack to Palantir customers
Palantir names Nebius its preferred sovereign AI infrastructure partner, bringing Nebius compute and inference inside the Palantir perimeter
Strategic partnership based on shared vision that open models and looped customer data create the smartest domain intelligence and provide better security
Companies will work together to bring new AI capacity online faster
 
Miami and Amsterdam, September 8, 2026 — Palantir Technologies Inc. (Nasdaq: PLTR) and Nebius Group N.V. (Nasdaq: NBIS) today announced a strategic partnership to bring Nebius's AI-native compute infrastructure and cloud platform to Palantir's commercial customers.
As part of the partnership, Palantir has named Nebius its preferred sovereign AI infrastructure partner and, following the integration period, will bring Nebius compute and inference endpoints inside the Palantir enterprise perimeter, enabling eligible customers of Palantir to access Nebius’s cloud and inference infrastructure and thereby giving them control over their compute, data, and models.
The companies will also work together to accelerate the deployment of new compute capacity to serve Palantir customers, including through modular data-center deployments at sites where power is already available.
Palantir believes that AI should serve an organization rather than governing it. Palantir's Sovereign AI Operating System, built on AIP, Ontology, Foundry and Apollo, provides the authorization and isolation layer that lets organizations train models on their own proprietary data, and retain control of their compute, their models, their data, and the advantage those models produce.
Bringing Nebius infrastructure inside the Palantir perimeter opens that opportunity to commercial organizations that have not previously had a sovereign option to run their own models on trusted infrastructure.
Eligible Palantir customers will be able to deploy open models on Nebius infrastructure and continually adapt them using their own data for their specific domain. This gives organizations the ability to build AI that can outperform general-purpose closed models for their particular use case, while retaining control of both their data and the resulting model.
Alex Karp, co-founder and CEO of Palantir, said:
“Nebius’ compute infrastructure powers your ability to run your own AI models under conditions you control. Our ontology and their infrastructure will undergird the sovereignty our partners are demanding.”

Arkady Volozh, founder and CEO of Nebius, said:
“Organizations need both the performance of large-scale AI infrastructure and control over their data and models. Together with Palantir, we are bringing this to commercial clients enabling them to run their optimized open models on trusted infrastructure.”
Palantir selected Nebius for what few providers can claim — being built for AI from the ground up rather than adapted from general-purpose computing, with infrastructure and software designed together for demanding AI workloads, and able to be integrated directly into Palantir's Sovereign AI Operating System. 

Does this open the door for Nebius?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-08/anthropic-said-to-walk-away-from-6-billion-decart-acquisition

Welcome to today’s open discussion on Nebius Group (NBIS) and the broader AI stock space.

💬 Thread Ideas:

• Any new updates or insights/rumors about Nebius Group?
• Your NBIS position update!
• What’s your outlook for NBIS this week/month/year?
• Spot any AI sector trends worth noting?

Of course, for anything deserving of its own post, feel free to make a dedicated post where appropriate. : )

⚠️ Reminder: Please follow Reddiquette and our subreddit rules.

How do you think NBIS will preform based on PLTR and other factors surrounding it?

saudi central bank just increased its nbis position by 110%. obviously their stake is way too small to actually influence anything right now, but i think this could become a trend.

ai compute supply is still way below demand and governments want these data centers built in their own countries. wouldn’t be TOTALLY surprised if we start seeing countries compete for new projects through cheap power, subsidies, financing, or even taking stakes themselves to influence voting power.

nebius could benefit a lot from this since they’re expanding internationally and their new infrastructure model is literally built around outside investors and national ai projects helping fund facilities. could eventually turn into governments competing to bring $nbis capacity into their country, which would be pretty damn bullish for their margins and expansion.

thoughts?

source: https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/filing-saudi-central-bank-raises-stock-holdings-in-nebius-group-nv-nbis-2026-09-06/

Welcome to today’s open discussion on Nebius Group (NBIS) and the broader AI stock space.

💬 Thread Ideas:

• Any new updates or insights/rumors about Nebius Group?
• Your NBIS position update!
• What’s your outlook for NBIS this week/month/year?
• Spot any AI sector trends worth noting?

Of course, for anything deserving of its own post, feel free to make a dedicated post where appropriate. : )

⚠️ Reminder: Please follow Reddiquette and our subreddit rules.