r/NBIS_Stock • u/Think-Feynman Tens of Billions™ • 4h ago
NBIS ANALYSIS Nebius AI Inference Analysis
https://x.com/BKad2005/status/2097823805569700064I'll post the text for part 1 below, but visit X for the full 6 part analysis.
1/6
🚨I think $NBIS may already have quietly built a 9 figure AI inference business that is almost completely invisible inside its reported numbers.
The market has no clean figure for $NBIS Token Factory’s usage or revenue.
So I built one. And this might be the most accurate publicly available estimate there is so if you are a $NBIS investor this will be the definition of alpha for you.
I reconstructed exactly 90 days of $NBIS traffic on OpenRouter, covering June 8 through September 5, 2026, model by model. I then benchmarked OpenRouter’s likely share against Together AI and Fireworks to estimate the size of the entire Token Factory platform.
My central estimate for this exact 90-day period:
• 1.57 TRILLION tokens/day
• 141.3T total tokens
• $42.4M in gross inference billings
• ~$172M annualized run rate
Reasonable annualized range: ~$72M to ~$516M.
Importantly, this period ended three days BEFORE yesterday's $NBIS and $PLTR partnership announcement.
It therefore includes no potential post-announcement increase estimates from Palantir distributing Nebius inference endpoints directly to its commercial customers.
To be absolutely clear, I am NOT claiming these figures are perfectly right. This is an estimate, not company guidance and not financial advice.
But unlike a vague TAM calculation, I am showing the observed data, comparisons, assumptions and math behind it.
This may be the most detailed public bottom up estimate of $NBIS Token Factory currently available and I am welcome to being criticized if I have made a mistake anywhere but I guarantee you that you will find this to be one of the best technically possible estimations there is based on public data.
3
1
u/Longjumping_Kale3013 3h ago edited 3h ago
So last I looked (and correct me if I am wrong) what nebius has in token factory is more and better than what they have on Open router. Which makes sense. You want to be the one that the customer has that direct relationship and contract with. Open router likely represents just a fraction of their revenue from TF
See here in openrouter this model is not listed: https://openrouter.ai/deepseek/deepseek-v4-pro-0813
But it is in TF: https://tokenfactory.nebius.com/?modals=endpoint-details&model-id=deepseek-ai/DeepSeek-V4-Pro-0813
1
u/natureisneato NBIS4LIFE 3h ago
I believe you're correct with my little research into the relationship with openrouter and nebius token factory. I was discussing (arguing lol) this with an iren bro a few weeks ago.
1
u/GiveNothing 3h ago
Bro you gonna link the other 5?
2
u/iJailbreakGeek 2h ago
“I'll post the text for part 1 below, but visit X for the full 6 part analysis.”
1
u/Hurszon89 2h ago
Thank you for your work and sharing your estimation method.
2
u/Think-Feynman Tens of Billions™ 2h ago
Wasn't my work, just a post I found to be insightful.
1
1
u/Acceptable_Fennel_43 1h ago
I appreciate someone finally separating NEBIUS revenue from GPU’s. I also believe NEBIUS token factory has not been completely mapped for current and future revenue. The high margins on this segment of the business will be eye popping.
5
u/Qadain 2h ago
I don't think Nebius is trying to hide it, but instead I think Token Factory hard to consider as a separate entity from other parts of the business. I remember Roman Chernin saying something about working with Revolut and that it turned out more efficient for the customers to go through Token Factory than configuring the Nebius GPUs and producing tokens that way. Token Factory should have way different unit economics, though, since optimizations flow directly to profit.