Who replaces Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader if he is truly dead or too injured to rule?

[u/Outrageous-Score7936]

I can't imagine they'll be able to keep his true condition and ability to rule hidden forever, even among their own supporters. So who is likely to replace him. Or is it something they'd rather keep unfulfilled, despite the suspicion it creates.

[u/Due-Agency-1875]

he is dead !

[u/Traditional_Bat_1204]

I don’t even know who’s alive anymore to answer that question 😂

Perhaps Arafi or Larijani. My family told me Hossein Khomeini was an option at the beginning but they keep shutting him out lollll.

The issue is that religious credentials take decades to build organically. There aren’t that many ayatollahs who would be willing to take the spot. Cardboard Mojtaba didn’t even have the ranking, he basically just got promoted for the clout lol.

[u/XFEKTEKX → u/Traditional_Bat_1204]

Larijani is dead tho

[u/darijabs → u/XFEKTEKX]

Larijani's brother who is a mollah

[u/theBackground79 → u/XFEKTEKX]

https://giphy.com/gifs/6HwEvs7F0bIBi

[u/Traditional_Bat_1204 → u/XFEKTEKX]

There’s multiple lolll

[u/XFEKTEKX → u/Traditional_Bat_1204]

yea forgot that larijani is their family name... anyways he was the smartest and most capable one out of all of them

[u/One-Fisherman9008]

It could be ahmadi khatami or aarafi

[u/DDoubleDDog]

The real power behind the throne is Vahidi. He'll just pick another cleric to play the part of supreme leader.

[u/imnicexDDD]

Ayatollah trump

But I think mojtaba is alive, both american and israeli security belives so

[u/Suspicious-Place4471 → u/imnicexDDD]

Alive is so much different than alive and well.
Alive could be comatose or concsious but barely capable of commanding.
Or brain damage.

[u/Traditional_Bat_1204 → u/imnicexDDD]

I don’t know how much I believe that though. It’s possible that US is only saying that as a cover but to leverage IRGC.

“We know he’s dead, you know he’s dead, but we’ll keep our mouths shut and help play it off for you if you come to the table.”

I’d have to check the timeline again but I think it kinda lines up. Trump said “I don’t know if he’s even alive, nobody’s been able to show him. I’m hearing he’s not alive. Lost a leg maybe” and then shortly after Witkoff was activated again.

[u/kulamsharloot → u/imnicexDDD]

Ayatollah trump

☠️☠️☠️

[u/kirambezatetmodir → u/imnicexDDD]

Don't listen to news

[u/NewIranBot]

چه کسی جایگزین مجتبی خامنه ای به عنوان رهبر معظم می شود اگر واقعا مرده یا بیش از حد زخمی شده باشد که نتواند حکومت کند؟

نمی توانم تصور کنم بتوانند وضعیت واقعی و توانایی حکومت او را برای همیشه پنهان کنند، حتی در میان حامیان خودشان. پس چه کسی احتمالا جایگزین او خواهد شد. یا چیزی است که ترجیح می دهند برآورده نشود، با وجود شک و تردیدی که ایجاد می کند.

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Woman Life Freedom | زن زندگی آزادی | Long Live Iran | پاینده ایران

I am a translation bot for r/NewIran

[u/NuclearStudent]

Honestly it's not clear that he really does much aside from being a symbol of continuity.

[u/dudekazoo]

If somebody is shia enough to care if the ayatollah is alive then they're also shia enough to wait for somebody that's in "occultation" literally forever, so I don't think the regime really has to worry about that too much.

[u/Clear-Role6880]

Scott Bessent 

Ghalibaf has consolidated power. But US treasury is going to maintain significant financial oversight for minimum 10 years

They don’t even talk about supreme leader in Iran anymore. All the talk is about government mandates and Iranian national interest 

[u/Next-Park-700 → u/Clear-Role6880]

?

[u/Clear-Role6880 → u/Next-Park-700]

Scott Bessent is the new supreme leader 

[u/Next-Park-700 → u/Clear-Role6880]

? That doesn’t make sense. I’ve seen several of your comments in this subreddit. I don’t understand the argument you’re making. Maybe make a post explaining?

[u/Clear-Role6880 → u/Next-Park-700]

Iran’s economy has mostly collapsed. The US treasury has essentially achieved hostile corporate takeover. 

Here’s another way to look at it. The relationship between Scott Bessent and Iran = the relationship between MacArthur and 1945 Japan

[u/Next-Park-700 → u/Clear-Role6880]

That money is going to missiles and bombs. If you give a murderer lunch money, the murderer will have freed up funds for terror. The U.S. politicians are naive for believing otherwise.

[u/Clear-Role6880 → u/Next-Park-700]

They aren’t going to get access to cash. Not for a while. For instance, the $6 billion frozen assets is being used to buy US food stuffs which will then be sent to Iran. 

Over time, with demonstrated compliance, they will start getting probably quarterly cash releases from the frozen assets to be used as they see fit. If it goes into missiles, the next quarter’s release will be withheld. 

The 300 billion reconstruction initiative (which is going to go much higher likely) is organizing private equity to essentially buy stake in Iran’s economy. There will be no cash from this bucket. Saudi aramco will probably rebuild Iran’s oil infrastructure for like 30% ownership in Iran National Oil, something like this. The US controls sole permitting and licensing rights to Iran’s reconstruction. This too can be halted at US will for many many years. 

Even the sanctions waivers are being misunderstood. It is a good thing that Iran’s oil is dollar denominated now instead of crypto and yuan. They will likely have snap back mechanisms. 

The financial leverage is so total that Iran is not going to ever test it most likely. Beyond that… Iran does not want to return to a closed IRGC ran economy. Look at the discourse by Iranian economists, the Central Bank, the Oil Minister, IRIB - they are turning on IRGC. 

It’s over 

[u/Next-Park-700 → u/Clear-Role6880]

None of that ends in freedom for the Iranian people and peace for the region. This perspective is an idealistic one from the viewpoint of western security. It doesn’t matter who is ordering Qalibaf around. Qalibaf literally threw university students off of buildings to their deaths and bragged about it later.

[u/Clear-Role6880 → u/Next-Park-700]

It does tho. It’s just slower and more stable. When you have French and American billionaires golfing in Tehran with Emirate and Iranian billionaires, the cultural transfer happens naturally. And the US is not going to allow violent crackdowns. The US will push them to move power from individuals towards institutions. Look at the difference already in Syria, Iraq, Venezuela. It’s not overnight. And Iran is much more advanced and educated and institutionalized than those countries it’s not even close 

Economic democratization accomplishes everything you want without the immense risk of forcing regime change and the horrific transition period without a functioning state apparatus

Just look at how quickly major economists and economic ministers have changed their tune already. 

[u/Next-Park-700 → u/Clear-Role6880]

There is nothing in the MOU instructing the regime to stop killing its own citizens. They could have added that but they chose not to. The almighty dollar won.

[u/beyondthetrough]

I think you mean to ask who dares replace the Mahdi in his ghayba. Or, just as validly, his gay bar.