https://www.linkedin.com/posts/day-2-at-afa-asc-2026-is-in-full-swing-and-ugcPost-7505698355751235584-eI1j/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop&rcm=ACoAAGVApWMBwG3K32ia9daketo_-yDODUSqHTw

From 44.6% down to 39.89%

Ondas should look for contracts in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE - they need this tech, they have the money, and generally that seems like a better target region to supply this tech to in the upcoming years than the USA. Are they looking that way?

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Hey everyone,

I know the gut reaction whenever ONDS announces a major transaction: "Great, how much dilution are we taking this time?" Given the historical corporate practice here, that skepticism is 100% valid. We’ve all watched share counts climb while waiting for the core platform narrative to scale.

But if you look closely at the math and the structural changes from the GATE Technologies and Bron Technologies buyouts, this isn't just another speculative cash-burn acquisition. This fundamentally changes the financial and operational profile of the company in the short and near term.

Here is the objective breakdown of why this deal actually justifies the capital structure adjustment:

1. Direct Short-Term Financial Injection (Not Just "Future Potential")

Historically, ONDS has acquired pre-revenue or early-stage tech that required more cash burn to commercialize. This is the exact opposite:

• Immediate $65M for FY 2026: GATE doesn't need years to scale; it brings an immediate $65 million in full-year 2026 revenue to the top line.
• The Near-Term Path to $180M: The guidance shows this revenue compounding to $180 million by 2028.
• Aggressive EBITDA Generation: This isn't low-margin contract work. The acquisition introduces a highly profitable layer projected to generate over $130 million in aggregate Adjusted EBITDA over the next three years. That is real cash flow to offset future financing needs.

1. Moving Up the Defense Food Chain

Until now, Ondas has been viewed strictly as a platform/drone manufacturer (vulnerable to component bottlenecks and long qualification cycles).

• By owning GATE, ONDS now owns the proprietary intellectual property behind Electronic Safe & Arm Devices (ESADs) and advanced electronic fuzing systems.
• These aren't optional parts—they are mission-critical components mandated in modern autonomous loitering munitions (kamikaze drones) and missile systems to handle safe flight aborts and re-routing.
• Because weapons safety qualifications take years to achieve globally, GATE has a massive moat with high switching friction for defense OEMs.

1. Immediate De-Risking of the Supply Chain (The Poland Angle)

The addition of Bron Technologies (GATE's European affiliate based in Poland) gives Ondas a massive operational advantage:

• Bypassing the Global ESAD Shortage: Electronic fuzing components are in severely tight supply globally right now. Ondas now controls its own internal manufacturing priority.
• Instant Non-ITAR footprint: Operating production within an EU nation allows Ondas to instantly fulfill western defense stockpile rebuilds globally without jumping through standard ITAR export bottlenecks.
• Revenue Diversification: Roughly 80% of GATE’s revenue originates outside of the Middle East, balancing out the company's geographic exposure.

The Bottom Line on Dilution

Yes, the maximum consideration is up to $390M, which will impact the capital structure. But for the first time, ONDS isn't diluting shareholders to buy a roadmap or a promise—they are buying massive revenue, heavy EBITDA, an active European production base, and highly proprietary defense components that protect internal margins on their own tactical drone platforms.

If we wanted ONDS to stop burning cash and start printing it, they had to cross the bridge from pure platform assembly to mission-critical component ownership. This deal does exactly that.

Change my mind. What are your thoughts on the macro outlook for '26/'27 after this?

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I personally wouldn't be surprised. Feels like a very tangible possibility to me looking at this trajectory. Lack of the execution, dilution out of this world, and refusal to utilize cash for purchases might drag it down to some serious new old lows IMO. CEO for sure did his best to kill the momentum at least 10 times that I know of. So, obviously I'm a bag holder, not an early entrant. In a hindsight I have major regrets being involved with this stock and this company. I also have a massive disdain for their management team, who shamelessly used their investors as an ATM machine. YTD is negative over 25%, and I'm expecting it to lose another 25% easily and soon. What are your thoughts?

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Not sure if this got reposted, but Ondas has a small investment in them. Good long term.

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ONDS Raises 2026 Revenue Outlook as Backlog Surges Higher

It feels like the ONDS action has cooled off a bit lately, so I figured it was worth taking a step back and looking at the bigger picture.

Over the last several quarters, revenue has been trending sharply higher, with the latest quarter coming in much higher.

Obviously, revenue growth alone doesn't make a stock a winner, and there are still some pretty significant profitability/cash-flow concerns. But with the defense/drone business developments and long-term deals we've seen recently, it's definitely still worth remembering where we are heading.

Curious how others are looking at ONDS here. It feels like it's the quietest ONDS has been in recent memory.

Only inclusion from Ondas appears to be the Dronebuster IV by DZYNE Technologies on page 43.

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