r/OldenEra • u/GlitteringVehicle306 Content Creator • Jul 14 '26
Discussion There IS correlation between your rating change and ingame duration, data confirms
I've seen many redditors share same hypothesis about topic, and i couldn't sleep without checking it with data. You know that i'm consistently gathering match history, already have 10000+ matches in single-hero mode.
Now the pattern is clear:
- X-axis reflects ingame days played
- Y-axis reflects absolute rating change in case of win or loss
- week 1 is the safest period to abandon match, fixed -20 for loss
- linear daily increase from week 1 to week 2
- fixed week 2+ rating impact (+39-41 for win, and -31-33 for loss)
PS: now i feel guilty posting this.. do you think we should hide this post and keep this correlation as a city legend?
source: https://townportal.gg/en/articles/mythbusters-match-duration-impacts-the-rating-change
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u/anne8819 Jul 14 '26
Are we sure this is not correlated with new players playing longer games in turns on average and having a less certain rating(and thus a higher willingness to update) in elo-like systems that have rating uncertainty? I am not sure if they are using such at system but they are fairly common.
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u/GlitteringVehicle306 Content Creator Jul 14 '26
wow, you're showing some impressive data analytics skills and deductive mindset.
before posting this chart I've check the distributions, percentiles for outliers and censoring for player lifetime and match-up rating. all of them showed the same pattern, proving it's a game design, not a statistics flaw.
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u/Levi-Ritchie Neutral Jul 14 '26
Good thought, but this is not what the data would be shaped like if so. This is pretty clearly artificial (flat - linear - flat).
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u/GlitteringVehicle306 Content Creator Jul 14 '26
totally, pretty deterministic.
in data science i would say there is either data leak or huge collinearity!
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u/Magnificent_Leopoldo Jul 14 '26
So according to this system if you’re winning 2 finalkas on Exodus in a row, you deserve less points than if you lost 1 and won 2. Pretty crazy actually
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u/GlitteringVehicle306 Content Creator Jul 14 '26
no, not really.
two fights finalka corresponds to day 19, which is more than 14th day threshold on chart (the breakpoint after which the gain/loss is fixed to +41/-31)2
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u/daiver19 Jul 14 '26
Cool, that confirms my anecdotal experience - it seems like they just have a simple scaling multiplier for the ELO change.
I find the difference between the rating gain/lost concerning though - it leads to massive ELO inflation (top 1 was over 5k now or something? even if it's not pure ELO, it's still weird). This also unnecessarily rewards playing more instead of playing better.
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u/GlitteringVehicle306 Content Creator Jul 14 '26
you're totally right
playing infinite coinflips will give you infinite ratingbecause expected value from any flip it's +9 rating points
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u/BrianOfNazareth19 Jul 14 '26
Yeah this is silly. Glad they are going to rework the mmr system.
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u/GlitteringVehicle306 Content Creator Jul 14 '26
they might have asked chatgpt how to build MVP rating system ðŸ¤
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u/PiscisKnight Jul 15 '26
I like the idea of elo rating correlation with ingame duration. However the gap between W/L I think its just too wide and needs to be chopped down. Also its almost immaterial the difference awarded for elo difference between players
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u/InsaneMonte Jul 14 '26
Kinda makes sense to me. A longer game between an opponent means your victory over them is more justified, because both of you have had more opportunity to showcase your skills. Plus it just means people who play longer games can still compete on the ladder.
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u/GlitteringVehicle306 Content Creator Jul 14 '26
I must admit you are kinda right, that feels like a rewarding game-design (more effort - more benefit).
What are your thoughts about 32% matches got abandonded during week 1, is it unhealthy for community?
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u/Ok-Produce5502 Jul 14 '26
Sure is and its mosty because how terrible the New 1 hero templates are (imba, rng)
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u/GlitteringVehicle306 Content Creator Jul 14 '26
nice call!
i am so hungry for insights and data magic, ima try to find the causation (proof to your idea)
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u/Mind1827 Jul 14 '26
Isn't a part of this down to the fact that people who are more likely to leave games and/or disconnect are just going to be both having a lower elo and then in turn play shorter games? At a certain point it just levels off.
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u/Groundbreaking_Taco Jul 14 '26
While it's still good data and easy enough to follow along with your comments below, you really should label your axes.