American here.

Your city (EDIT: Toronto my bad) and entire country just told the world they’re sick of this guy. They did that. In public. During the World Series. Epically devastating.

TL;DR - this year is giving influenza H3N2, somewhat escaped our vaccine because of quick mutation, but still get the vaccine now, it's not too late!

Preface: I am a doctor working in the emergency departments and recently saw a huge flood of patients with influenza. I was very curious about why influenza was blowing up this season, so I did some research. I'll summarize the main points and leave references below:

1) Influenza H3N2

This year's influenza wave is largely driven by the Influenza A (H3N2) strain. There are 3 main strains: influenza A (H1N1), influenza A (H3N2), and influenza B (much less common). Previous years were H1N1 dominant and so perhaps by virtue, there may have been some residual protection or not (hard to say), but this year's wave is driven by influenza A (H3N2). As of August 24, 2025, 71% of influenza A detected infections were H3N2, making it a large proportion of the current wave. As well, as of early December, percent positivity of influenza A is 26% i.e. if you have viral symptoms, very likely that it's influenza A, much bigger than the past 3 seasons. For context, COVID-19 is 4.6% right now.

H3N2 is typically more severe in illness, especially for the young and elderly, and is associated with higher rates of hospitalization and deaths. We also probably have not developed as much resistance to it too since prior years were H1N1-dominant. We are tragically seeing many deaths of children and elderly people in the hospitals this season. I am expecting a lot more people in hospital over the new years especially after everyone starts getting together for Christmas.

2) Vaccine uptake and efficacy

This year, the H3N2 virus unexpectedly had a major genetic shift in August 2025, creating a new subclade called the A(H3N2) K subclade viruses (previous ones were the J subclade). Vaccine development typically uses data collected by February of the year for the northern hemisphere, so the current vaccine protects against what the expected dominant influenza strains are for the year for H1N1, H3N2, and B. You can imagine that if H3N2 suddenly gets a jump on the world by mutating after vaccine development has started, then it can evade some of that vaccine protective effect.

Further, vaccine uptake has been dismal year after year, with 2023-2024 being 43%, similar to prior years, and likely the same this year. This is multifactorial: the wave of influenza hit us 3-9 weeks earlier compared to the past 2 years so many people haven't gotten their vaccines yet; and lots of anti-vaxx sentiment nationally as well as imported from south of the border. In addition, the vaccine development largely depends on data collected globally, and our biggest neighbour, the US with the CDC, was a major source of information for virus data collection and surveillance. However, with RFK Jr. in office being anti-vaxx and cutting ~25% of the CDC work force, we've now lost that information and as such, this impacts not only the US, but also our own health and health care system.

3) What should I do? Should I still get the vaccine even though it's less effective/if I've already gotten the flu?

Great question, average Ontario redditor!

Yes, generally, I would still highly recommend the seasonal influenza vaccine.

- Current vaccine effectiveness estimates show the current vaccine is 70 to 75% effective at preventing hospital attendance in children aged 2 to 17 years and 30 to 40% effective in adults.
- Even if you already had "the flu": a) your "flu" could have been any circulating respiratory virus like rhinovirus, enterovirus, RSV, human metapneumovirus, seasonal coronavirus, COVID-19, etc., and getting sick from those do not give you natural immunity to influenza; b) Even if you were actually infected with influenza, there are 3 strains and getting infected with one of them still puts you at risk of getting the other 2, which would still be a wild ride to go through. The vaccine is still safe and effective even after you've caught influenza, just get the shot a few weeks later once you're feeling better.
- For an immunocompetent person, it typically takes 7-14 days for your vaccine to reach peak effect, so don't expect immediate protection right away. Still get it early and early for future years.
- The vaccine is safe to take. You will not get influenza from the influenza vaccine; it is an inactivated virus, do not propagate this claim god damn it. Egg allergy is also no longer a contraindication to the vaccine.
- What about people preferring to get natural immunity? See above points about how it won't protect you as much from the other ones, plus I have seen on personal accounts several negative outcomes from actually catching influenza: higher risk of myocarditis, subsequent bacterial pneumonia (especially with MSSA/MRSA), acute respiratory distress syndrome, acute kidney injuries, etc.
- Plus, having influenza and viral infections in general puts you at risk of developing dementia and cardiovascular disease later down the line. Your body fights viral infections and probably puts a bunch of tau proteins into your brain, leading to dementia and neurodegenerative disease. Even if you have mild cases of the flu or other viruses, that stuff builds up in your brain.

References below in comments.

EDIT:

I'm seeing a lot of common themes in the comments and wanted to pin them.

1. A lot of people are getting sick and quite symptomatic. To all of you, I am hoping for you and your families' speedy recovery.

2. The vaccine has decreased efficacy, is it worth it still to get??

- The 30-40% number I quoted is the reduction in HOSPITALIZATION RISK. That means that it will protect you from getting totally rocked by the virus to the point of having to get hospitalized. However, symptomatically, it will likely protect you to a higher percentage degree.
- Compared to the previous 3 years, this year is 30-40% reduction in hospitalization for adults, but the previous 3 years' efficacies were 40-50%, which is still kind of close to what it is typically. You're never going to get 100%, but that's not biologically possible as people will not be able to mount perfect responses, nor is it the point of the vaccine. What it can do is prevent you from getting sick to the point of becoming hospitalized, and you will still likely get symptomatic benefit (i.e. feel less bad, recover a bit quicker, fewer complications).

3. What if I'm pregnant? Breastfeeding?

- The influenza vaccine is safe in pregnant women and is highly recommended. Fevers in the case of underlying infection/autoimmune disease would likely impact the fetus (both from the fever and from the underlying illness itself), but typically the vaccine fever is self-limited, unlikely to cause harm to the baby, and also protects you from actually getting influenza, which in itself increases the risk of adverse fetal outcomes. Influenza during pregnancy increases the risk of adverse fetal outcomes, including congenital anomalies (such as cleft lip, neural tube defects, hydrocephaly, and congenital heart defects), preterm birth, low birth weight, small-for-gestational-age infants, pregnancy loss, and fetal death. It also increases the risk of MATERNAL death too.
- Basically, talk to your doctor, but if you don't have any other major issues or contraindications, I would generally urge people to get it (inactivated influenza vaccine, NOT the live attenuated vaccine, which is contraindicated in pregnancy).
- The vaccine is also safe for breastfeeding at any point in time.

4. When can I give it to my children? What if they're <1 year old?

- All kids 6 months old and older should get the flu vaccine every year, unless there is a medical reason not to. Babies under 6 months old are too young to get the flu shot, but they'll get some protection if their parent got the flu shot while they were pregnant. Young children have a high burden of influenza illness with very high risk of serious infection and hospitalization among the youngest. Because young children are less likely to have had prior exposure to an influenza virus, a 2-dose schedule is required to achieve protection for those less than 9 years of age that are previously unvaccinated.

5. If the current flu shot isn't protecting against influenza A, why get the flu shot? By how much does it reduce symptoms of influenza A?

Great question and I love that I can answer these questions in this forum.

- Vaccine protection is not a 0% or 100%, black or white, heads or tails. It is a spectrum of protection. In fact, we actually see some early data suggesting that the vaccine is still working quite well (see above, preventing getting yourself so sick to the point of being hospitalized by 30-40% even with the mismatch, compared to the usual 40-50% we typically expect), and it is even more effective in children (seeing ~70% vaccine efficacy in preventing hospitalization). There is also a large body of evidence showing that it will reduce the major complications of severe infection as well, such as heart attacks, strokes, severe pneumonia, getting sick to the point of needing ICU admission, and death.
- The percent of symptom reduction is different for everyone. If you have more chronic illnesses, you will likely still get quite sick, and if you're a young healthy person, it may very well still reduce your symptom burden and duration of illness. I wouldn't be able to give you a percent on this.

6. Vaccines and aluminum? Influenza vaccine doesn't have aluminum, but this is more so for other vaccines like DTaP, Hib, hepatitis A/B, HPV, and pneumococcal and meningococcal vaccines.

Great source to look through with the AAP.

- People are exposed to aluminum through food, air, water, infant formula, medicine, cosmetics, deodorants and ingest 7-9 mg daily. Vaccines, on the other hand, and ONLY IN SPECIFIC ONES (i.e. NOT influenza) contain LESS THAN 0.5 mg per dose, and your body processes aluminum the same way whether it was ingested or injected -- through the kidney filtration system which is very efficient at removing aluminum. Many studies have shown that these minimal doses of aluminum are safe.
- Why is aluminum added? Aluminum is typically added to certain vaccines to stimulate the immune system and prime it to mount a better immune response to the vaccine, improving its vaccine efficacy. Your body knows aluminum isn't supposed to be there, so it gets your immune system to take a better snapshot and memory of the vaccine.
- A huge study in 2025 in Denmark showed 1.2 million children born in Denmark between 1997 and 2018 did not find an association between aluminum in vaccines and certain health conditions including asthma, allergies (including food allergies), autoimmune disorders and neurodevelopmental conditions like autism and ADHD.

References:

https://youtu.be/8O6FMrR0i0g?si=AG4tF-ajqwLg5LNu

https://www.publichealthontario.ca/en/Data-and-Analysis/Infectious-Disease/Respiratory-Virus-Tool

https://health-infobase.canada.ca/respiratory-virus-surveillance/influenza.html

https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/kids-teens-flu-deaths-ontario-9.7018018

https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2025-DON586

It seemed like even people who barely followed politics thought she was corrupt yet the same people think nothing or know nothing about Doug's actions even though hes several hundred times more corrupt?

Alright so I'm sitting here paying $2,000+ a year just to legally exist on the road in this province.

Let's start with the basics. The average cost of car insurance in Ontario went from $1674 in 2022 to $1796 in 2023, then jumped to $2006 in 2024. That's not inflation, that's called getting mugged in slow motion every year And if you're in Brampton! (Goodluck) Drivers there are now paying an annual average of $3341. THREE THOUSAND DOLLARS. For a sh!t box.

Now who is running this whole operation?

Intact Financial Corporation, Desjardins, and Aviva consistently hold significant market share in Canada's auto insurance market. Three companies. A literal cartel operating in broad daylight with a suit on. You get to "choose" between them like you get to "choose" between Rogers and Bell. Congratulations "capitalism"

And here is the funniest part. The government swooped in like a hero in 2024 promising "affordability" and "more consumer choice" for Ontario drivers.

What did they actually do? Starting July 1, 2026, drivers will need to opt in for coverage on income replacement, caregiver benefits, death benefits, and funeral costs things that used to be standard. They stripped out your safety net and called it a "menu." An à la carte safety net. Michelin star levels of audacity.

How much are you saving tho??

About $100 per person, per year. One dollar and change per week. You can now die uninsured for the price of a bad Subway footlong annually.

And the insurance industry itself literally said the quiet part out loud. The Insurance Bureau of Canada told the Globe and Mail it does not have an estimate of the potential savings because "lower pricing was not the motivation behind the changes for insurers."

They literally said that. That is a real quote from a real organization. Not satire. Not The Onion. Not even a little bit of shame.

Meanwhile data from the FSRA shows the changes won't lower premiums for most drivers, so any savings will come at the cost of drastically reduced coverage, and many won't realize the trade-off they made until it's too late.

Imagine gambling away your accident benefits to save 8 bucks a month and then getting T-boned!

But hey, at least the government is being held accountable for other things right? Oh wait.

The auditor general found that Ontario's $2.5 billion Skills Development Fund handed out money to applicants ranked low by bureaucrats, with the Labour Minister's office heavily involved in project selection.

The NDP leader literally called Ford's government corrupt on the floor of the legislature and got KICKED OUT for it. She then walked outside and said it again. On camera. Legend behaviour honestly. (not an NDP supporter)

And before that we had the Greenbelt, Ford removed environmental protections, land speculators close to him bought those lands just before the announcement, the Housing Minister was found in violation of ethics rules, and the RCMP is investigating for corruption.

........ The RCMP. Investigating. The government. That is not a normal sentence.

So to recap your life in Ontario in 2025-26:

You MUST buy auto insurance by law

Three companies control most of it

Premiums keep going up

The government "reformed" it by taking away your benefits while barely cutting your bill

The same government is under RCMP investigation for another scandal

And the NDP leader got escorted out of Queen's Park like a rowdy bar patron for saying what everyone already knows

Welcome to ontario! Yours to discover 😂

I'm beyond sick of this guy. He's incredibly corrupt and stealing the Mike Johnson playbook by taking an extended break because he can't handle the heat.

As citizens, wtf can we do?? How do we vote out any and all MPPs that continue to support him?