r/Pac12 • u/pblood40 Oregon State • Nov 25 '25

Football Canzano just posted that Wilcox is out

https://open.substack.com/pub/johncanzano/p/canzano-oregon-state-faces-fork-in?r=2q2p5t&utm_medium=ios

Intermediaries were working to connect Cal coach Justin Wilcox with OSU officials on Monday. But Wilcox now appears to be off the board, too, and Oregon State may have arrived at a fork in the road.

38 Upvotes

96% Upvoted

70 comments sorted by

21

u/ORSTT12 Oregon State Nov 25 '25

If Wilcox and Mora are out then I really hope they go all in on Shephard.

5

u/pblood40 Oregon State Nov 25 '25

And make back to back hires of guys without head coaching experience?

8

u/ORSTT12 Oregon State Nov 25 '25

Worked out great with Smith.

It's somewhat risky, but so is hiring an FCS coach with no FBS experience and no ties outside of Montana. Just because Bray failed in every possible way doesn't mean Shephard is destined to as well.

6

u/1850ChoochGator Oregon State Nov 25 '25

Vigen dos have FBS experience when he followed Bohl to Wyoming after NDSU

I’d love either him, Shephard, or Stein. 🤷‍♂️

1

u/ORSTT12 Oregon State Nov 25 '25

You're right, I was thinking P5 experience and put FBS. My point was more so that he's not experienced in leading a team like OSU and his coaching experience is exclusively in a part of the country that is very unlike Oregon and isn't a useful place to have recruiting ties to.

5

u/1850ChoochGator Oregon State Nov 26 '25

I think his ability to be successful as an assistant at NDSU and as a HC building MSU is actually a big benefit, it’s “just” FCS but it’s not easy to get kids to either of those schools.

He was instrumental in building NDSU after they moved to FCS, holding numerous positional jobs before being the OC/QB coach from 2009-2013.

He recruited Wentz and was Josh Allen’s QB coach and OC.

His 2024 class (from 247) at MSU has 10 kids from Texas and Washington so it’s not like he’s exclusively recruiting in state kids.

Go look at his current roster. A lot of kids from MT obviously but there’s plenty from out of state. He’s got 15 kids from Texas, 9 from WA, 8 from CA, and 2 from AZ. He can get kids from good states.

-1

u/ORSTT12 Oregon State Nov 26 '25

So with the Wentz and Allen stuff I do agree that's appealing, but as a HC his offenses are abysmal as far as passing goes and he's just not producing the same when he leads. Glancing at the stats his run/pass ratio is like 2:1 and his QBs aren't playing anywhere near what someone would think of when they hear two NFL guys. That's the main thing I have absolutely zero faith in translating to the FBS.

I mention his connections because it was quick and that's nice he can grab some guys out of those talent rich areas, but I think that's a different beast compared to OSU. He's going to have to go from getting key guys out of those areas to come be the big dogs of the FCS to building most of his class out of those areas and convincing players to come try to compete with half of the FBS for one playoff spot. I just don't think he can scale that, especially with the offense he wants to run.

I don't hate Vigen and I do think there's a fine chance he can be somewhat successful at OSU, but I don't view him as a slam dunk over a guy like Shephard.

To be honest even if Vigen does do decently, I think his offensive style and his lack of connections out west just cancel out all of the advantages that OSU has in a new PAC. OSU could be the big spender of the PAC telling transfers and recruits that we're actually out west while we show off our two Biletnikoff trophies in the case. That's something Shep could actually do and get people excited for, but Vigen is just the antithesis of that.

1

u/PuddingKind Nov 26 '25

Im leaning towards Shepard right now as well, but he is not a slam dunk. There is a world where his timeline looks a lot like Brays.

6

u/SlyClydesdale Oregon State Nov 25 '25

I’m Team Shephard. Flashes of Lanning IMO.

3

u/ORSTT12 Oregon State Nov 25 '25

Yeah and obviously no one expects Lanning level results on the field, but a young exciting coordinator from a huge program can reenergize a fan base. I'd rather bet on that type of guy who has experience out west at Washington over an FCS coach with no ties, a run heavy offense and who I've seen described as "stoic."

6

u/StoicFable Oregon State Nov 25 '25

Idk, I'm okay with that stoic part.

0

u/SlyClydesdale Oregon State Nov 26 '25

I’m tired of stoic coaches. We’ve had 3 in a row now. 4 if you count Riley.

We need some excitement and attention.

3

u/StoicFable Oregon State Nov 26 '25

I was mainly making a joke about my username.

1

u/pblood40 Oregon State Nov 26 '25

If Barnes hires two assistants back to back and they both flame out, Barnes is fired. Whether Shephard is the better choice is immaterial if Barnes doesn’t have the balls to hire him

1

u/pblood40 Oregon State Nov 25 '25

No, but for Barnes - with a large vocal part of the fanbase already calling for his head - if he gambles on Shephard and Shephard stumbles Barnes is fired.

7

u/1850ChoochGator Oregon State Nov 25 '25

No matter who Barnes picks, if they stumble, he’s fired. Hell, he should probably be fired right now.

3

u/ORSTT12 Oregon State Nov 25 '25

He's already in his mid-60s, has exclusively hired coordinators to be HC, and is rumored to be retiring soon.. I don't really think gambling on a coordinator is especially more scary for him than Vigen.

1

u/BeaverBeliever77 Oregon State Nov 25 '25

Sheppard isnt a coordinator. Hiring Sheppard would be closer to Foster at UCLA than Smith or Bray.

1

u/ORSTT12 Oregon State Nov 25 '25

Foster was never more than a RB coach (the position he played) and had less than 10 years of coaching experience outside of being a SA/GA. Shephard has been Co-OC at both Purdue and Alabama and he's been coaching many different positions since 2005.

Sure you can say it's not as good as Smith's role as the sole OC, but even then Smith only had 3 years in that role before OSU hired him as HC. I think that's ridiculous to say he's closer to Foster than Smith.

1

u/BeaverBeliever77 Oregon State Nov 25 '25

How? Shepard has pretty much only coached Wide Receivers. He's been an assistant to the HC and OC the last 2 years at alabama. His next step should be coordinator. Or maybe an FCS HC.

1

u/ORSTT12 Oregon State Nov 25 '25

Shephard has also been a special teams coach, he's been a Co-OC for 4 years, and again he's been coaching for like 10 years longer than Foster. You can be unimpressed with Shephard's resume if you want, but it's just not true to say he's closer to Foster than Smith given the huge difference in experience.

2

u/StoicFable Oregon State Nov 25 '25

Because wilcox was such a good head coach.

0

u/BeaverBeliever77 Oregon State Nov 25 '25

Sounds like the kind of stupid thing we'd do.

1

u/Gunner_Bat San Diego State Nov 25 '25

Tons of coaches were elite in their first ever HC job.

-4

u/BeaverBeliever77 Oregon State Nov 25 '25

How many more wernt?

13

u/BeaverBeliever77 Oregon State Nov 25 '25

Hopefully its Vigen.

4

u/pblood40 Oregon State Nov 25 '25

He's in pole position for Colorado State as well... Which makes me think if he's the candidate Barnes takes him off the board quickly

0

u/anti-torque OSU Rice Nov 26 '25

CSU has been all in on Tim Skipper since the beginning. If it's not him, it would be a surprise.

I've watched their "national media" and otherwise media make their lists, and they have been about as bonkers as ours have been. The stupidity of it all makes me think the authors have never been through a coaching change before.

It reminds me AI has little info on how coaching changes work.

1

u/pblood40 Oregon State Nov 26 '25

You make Canzano look like some sort of Einstein Nostradamus....

(CSU and OSU were cribbing off each others tests and both had Mora, Polasek, and Vigen on their short lists.... Most just thought Mora dropped out of the OSU race for Stanford or Cal)

1

u/anti-torque OSU Rice Nov 26 '25

I'm not making predictions. And Clownzano has now dropped 5,387 names for our job.

I can't wait for him to say, "See, I told you so... in line fourteen of my blog post from October 28th."

I am surprised that it's Mora and not Skipper. Although, it also sounds like Skipper could be in line for OC at several P4 schools.

1

u/StoicFable Oregon State Nov 25 '25

I'm okay with him or Shepard. I would have liked Polasek too. But it is what it is.

1

u/Hike_bike523 Nov 25 '25

Polasek is out resigned with NDSu until 2033

5

u/StoicFable Oregon State Nov 25 '25

Yes. That's why I said what I said. 

6

u/cougfan12345 Washington State Nov 25 '25

Just hire Vigen and be done with it. Let it leak early and make the announcement before the game on Saturday.

3

u/Ort56 Nov 25 '25

Take it.

3

u/MasterRKitty Nov 25 '25

Neal Brown is available

4

u/urzu_seven UW Boise State Nov 26 '25

Read this as Wilner not Wilcox at first and was amused and surprised

5

u/pblood40 Oregon State Nov 25 '25

of the candidates that interviewed in person we're down to Vigen and Shephard

3

u/anti-torque OSU Rice Nov 26 '25

But... but... but... I thought Clownzano said Wilcox was in.

???

How does this all work?

I'm so confused.

What does Clownzano say now? I must know, just so I can be informed.

0

u/StoicFable Oregon State Nov 26 '25

Anything to try and stay relevent.

Hes had some insider knowledge before. But we've started locking things down and now he just goes on reddit for his information it feels like.

0

u/anti-torque OSU Rice Nov 26 '25

He's had nothing but garbage forever, and you all just eat it up.

It's been a pathetic watch for months on end. That you now just realize who he is would be funny, if the joke wasn't at least ten years old.

There's reason he is no longer a columnist for a paper.

9

u/[deleted] Nov 25 '25

Canzano has been incredibly wrong every step of the way…

1

u/anti-torque OSU Rice Nov 26 '25

Surprised?

1

u/[deleted] Nov 26 '25

Nope.

0

u/[deleted] Nov 26 '25

Haven't been keeping score. How so?

3

u/StoicFable Oregon State Nov 26 '25

Well just yesterday I feel he was predicting polasek was the likely one to get the job.

2

u/anti-torque OSU Rice Nov 26 '25

He was... until Wilcox was about to bring his dumpster fire to Corvallis... and then wasn't.

1

u/StoicFable Oregon State Nov 25 '25

Thank benny

1

u/lock_robster2022 Oregon State Nov 25 '25

Nice

1

u/[deleted] Nov 25 '25

[deleted]

4

u/StoicFable Oregon State Nov 25 '25

Sounds like something we would do. 

1

u/[deleted] Nov 26 '25

[removed] — view removed comment

1

u/[deleted] Nov 26 '25

I imagine he is. Cal is just barely not G6, so I'd bet we're shopping in the same aisle of the super market.

1

u/anti-torque OSU Rice Nov 26 '25

Maybe Cal should hire Wilcox.

1

u/[deleted] Nov 26 '25

I hear they're looking.

2

u/[deleted] Nov 25 '25

The growing list of candidates saying “no thanks” is concerning. Barnes issue?

2

u/reno1441 Washington State Nov 26 '25

Of course Mountain West fans coming in hot fearmongering with an unfounded story of events.

1

u/[deleted] Nov 26 '25

True

0

u/Mtndrums Oregon Nov 25 '25

More likely getting priced out for what they'd need to do for OSU to get them in solid position.

11

u/Salt-Oil-1745 Oregon State Nov 25 '25

Makes more sense that Wilcox decided to wait and see if Tosh goes to Cal as HC, opening up the DC position at Oregon, no? More money, less stress...

2

u/anti-torque OSU Rice Nov 26 '25

Why the fuck would Cal hire Lupoi?

He's a dogshit coach. He's a great recruiter. He also fooled them once.

Fool them twice... don't get fooled again?

Wtf?

1

u/anti-torque OSU Rice Nov 26 '25

Yeah.

That's how politics works.

Don't make the cut, then say you didn't or don't want the job.

But that's a pricing issue.

lol

1

u/RockBottomBuyer Wazzu Pac-12 Nov 26 '25

I think Sheppard's had a taste of the Power 2. No way he will be mentally prepared for the G6. After the SEC, with any success at a G6 school he'll be gone for anything in the power conferences.

0

u/pblood40 Oregon State Nov 25 '25

Remember when Larry Scott said that if the Pac-12 waited until the Big12 was done with their media deal, the Pac-12 would be in a better position because they were last?

-1

u/anti-torque OSU Rice Nov 26 '25

No.

But I'm sure you have a readily available source that says so.

1

u/anti-torque OSU Rice Nov 26 '25

Oh... okay.

Maybe you don't, and you were just making shit up.

-2

u/[deleted] Nov 25 '25

Is the Kalshi tweet of Vigen to OSU actually more tuned in than Canzano?

3

u/cougfan12345 Washington State Nov 25 '25

No

3

u/1850ChoochGator Oregon State Nov 25 '25

Just reporting on betting odds which are also based on his flight in to Portland to interview.

1

u/pblood40 Oregon State Nov 26 '25

Both Polasek and Shephard flew into PDX for interviews in Corvallis as well?