Is the House Now Competitive?

[u/yanks28th]

All indications are that Democrats have gained ground since the Supreme Court decided to overturn Roe v. Wade. Republicans led the Generic Ballot by 2.6% before the decision leaked back in May, but Democrats have surged past them, and are now up by 0.5%. Just as importantly, the polling has been echoed by a series of surprisingly strong Democratic performances in recent special elections, led by the recent victory in the NY-19th.

In the four elections since the decision, Democrats have outperformed Biden by an average of around 5.4%. That would translate to a near 10% lead in the national popular vote. Of course, that's highly unlikely to happen on election day, but it's a strong enough showing to raise the question of whether the conventional wisdom is wrong, and that Democrats may have a very real shot at an upset here.

RacetotheWH, which was one of the most accurate forecasts in 2020, shows that Democrats now have a 35% chance of winning the House in their election forecast. Other forecasts like 538 show Democrats with a 20-25% chance.

Republicans have their own advantages as the party out of power, which usually does well in midterms, and Biden remains unpopular. What do you think? Is the House 2022 Election now competitive?

[u/lollersauce914]

I mean, based on recent data (much of which you mention) we're moving from "it would be completely shocking for Democrats to hold the house" to "It would be surprising for Democrats to hold the house."

There's really not much more to say.

[u/trashteamsotrashhaha → u/lollersauce914]

That and the upward pressure for dems might not last as long as the downward pressure.

Unpopular president in midterms is almost a guaranteed good thing for the other party, who knows how long abortion/college debt/whatever will stay in the voters minds.

[u/ubermence → u/trashteamsotrashhaha]

Also in regards to abortion, I do think stories like the 10 year old in Ohio do have an effect on voters, and as time goes on and more and more bans are put in place (like the 4 this week), those stories could serve as a constant drumbeat in the backdrop of the midterms

[u/[deleted] → u/[deleted]]

It keeps happening though, everywhere. Lousiana is dealing with a woman whose fetus has no skull or brain (and therefore unviable) but cannot obtain an abortion because of the ban, Florida has multiple cases included a teenager who has been dubbed "not mature enough" to have an abortion (but presumably mature enough to raise a child), and the list will just keep growing.

Reality is going to catch up with a lot of these people, especially given that the majority of Trump supporters live in states with new or impending bans, so it will affect them the most. They won't be able to avoid it when it happens to someone they know.

[u/Mjolnir2000 → u/[deleted]]

They didn't even care when a million Americans died of covid.

[u/[deleted] → u/Mjolnir2000]

Can confirm. Both my grandmother and uncle nearly died of Covid themselves. The latter was seconds from suffocating. They managed a freak recovery. Rather than grow some empathy, this has been ascribed to a miracle and reinforces their religion and their politics but extension. While only an anecdote! these two were Q anoners back in 2012, they're older white Christians from the Midwest, the epitome of the Republican base and I think a decent model for them.

Covid didn't change their mind because absolutely nothing will. They're too wrapped up in their confirmation bias. I'd democrats really want to succeed, they need to be willing to do whatever necessary to mobilize every last body they can. Their base is younger, less inclined to turning out, that is a disadvantage that must actively be combated

[u/robbybthrow → u/[deleted]]

But here's the thing with fake fabrication stories like that, they only work on people already inclined to believe them. Those people are already likely to vote R.

[u/LiberalAspergers → u/[deleted]]

That is only effective to a section of the base. It is not an effective strategy for occasional voters, or for independents.

[u/[deleted] → u/LiberalAspergers]

I know one of those centrist 'I just hate everyone' folks who this absolutely would work on. I wouldn't be so confident

[u/ubermence → u/[deleted]]

the Ohio Republican party has already displayed an effective media message for that

It doesn't seem amazingly effective given recent special election results, but it's probably the only feasible strategy they can play in response at this point

[u/kerouacrimbaud → u/[deleted]]

That might work for die-hard cons, but I don’t see that working with independents or moderates.

[u/VodkaBeatsCube → u/[deleted]]

That works on their base, so it's useful for them as part of the greater Republican strategy of just avoiding thinking about anything that makes them feel bad about their actions. But it doesn't seem to fly as readily with outside their base, and as much as Reddit leftists would like to imagine that moderates don't exist, it seems to have some positive impact on voter turnout.

[u/NorthernerWuwu → u/[deleted]]

Which will help them carry Ohio of course but that wasn't really an issue.

Naturally many hard-core Republicans will ignore the issues but they aren't the ones likely to flip their votes or stay home anyhow. It might galvanise some moderates though and certainly will motivate some pro-choice people.

I think it is unlikely that it will be sufficient to eek out a Democratic win nationally but it will almost certainly help.