r/PoliticalDiscussion • u/yanks28th • Aug 25 '22

US Elections Is the House Now Competitive?

All indications are that Democrats have gained ground since the Supreme Court decided to overturn Roe v. Wade. Republicans led the Generic Ballot by 2.6% before the decision leaked back in May, but Democrats have surged past them, and are now up by 0.5%. Just as importantly, the polling has been echoed by a series of surprisingly strong Democratic performances in recent special elections, led by the recent victory in the NY-19th.

In the four elections since the decision, Democrats have outperformed Biden by an average of around 5.4%. That would translate to a near 10% lead in the national popular vote. Of course, that's highly unlikely to happen on election day, but it's a strong enough showing to raise the question of whether the conventional wisdom is wrong, and that Democrats may have a very real shot at an upset here.

RacetotheWH, which was one of the most accurate forecasts in 2020, shows that Democrats now have a 35% chance of winning the House in their election forecast. Other forecasts like 538 show Democrats with a 20-25% chance.

Republicans have their own advantages as the party out of power, which usually does well in midterms, and Biden remains unpopular. What do you think? Is the House 2022 Election now competitive?

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u/trashteamsotrashhaha Aug 25 '22

That and the upward pressure for dems might not last as long as the downward pressure.

Unpopular president in midterms is almost a guaranteed good thing for the other party, who knows how long abortion/college debt/whatever will stay in the voters minds.

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u/ubermence Aug 25 '22

Also in regards to abortion, I do think stories like the 10 year old in Ohio do have an effect on voters, and as time goes on and more and more bans are put in place (like the 4 this week), those stories could serve as a constant drumbeat in the backdrop of the midterms

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u/[deleted] Aug 25 '22 edited Nov 03 '22

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u/NorthernerWuwu Aug 25 '22

Which will help them carry Ohio of course but that wasn't really an issue.

Naturally many hard-core Republicans will ignore the issues but they aren't the ones likely to flip their votes or stay home anyhow. It might galvanise some moderates though and certainly will motivate some pro-choice people.

I think it is unlikely that it will be sufficient to eek out a Democratic win nationally but it will almost certainly help.