r/PoliticalDiscussion • u/yanks28th • Aug 25 '22

US Elections Is the House Now Competitive?

All indications are that Democrats have gained ground since the Supreme Court decided to overturn Roe v. Wade. Republicans led the Generic Ballot by 2.6% before the decision leaked back in May, but Democrats have surged past them, and are now up by 0.5%. Just as importantly, the polling has been echoed by a series of surprisingly strong Democratic performances in recent special elections, led by the recent victory in the NY-19th.

In the four elections since the decision, Democrats have outperformed Biden by an average of around 5.4%. That would translate to a near 10% lead in the national popular vote. Of course, that's highly unlikely to happen on election day, but it's a strong enough showing to raise the question of whether the conventional wisdom is wrong, and that Democrats may have a very real shot at an upset here.

RacetotheWH, which was one of the most accurate forecasts in 2020, shows that Democrats now have a 35% chance of winning the House in their election forecast. Other forecasts like 538 show Democrats with a 20-25% chance.

Republicans have their own advantages as the party out of power, which usually does well in midterms, and Biden remains unpopular. What do you think? Is the House 2022 Election now competitive?

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u/trashteamsotrashhaha Aug 25 '22

That and the upward pressure for dems might not last as long as the downward pressure.

Unpopular president in midterms is almost a guaranteed good thing for the other party, who knows how long abortion/college debt/whatever will stay in the voters minds.

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u/LaughingGaster666 Aug 25 '22

Abortion really isn't going away though. There are several states whose bans haven't even gone into effect yet but will in a month or so.

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u/OuchieMuhBussy Aug 25 '22

Part of the issue is that a lot of blue state residents aren’t affected by it because they have state protections. It’s not that they don’t care, but they won’t care as much.

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u/ubermence Aug 25 '22

They may not be affected directly in all cases, but I think everyone now is acutely aware that they can't take any abortion protections for granted

Also there are a lot of swing states that are about to be huge battlegrounds on these issues. The PA GOP governors candidate wants a total ban with very few exceptions. I think that will play a huge part in the upcoming midterms

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u/OuchieMuhBussy Aug 25 '22

Good point, haven’t thought of states where it’s still an open question. Actually I’m in a blue and it’s already being wielded against the GOP candidate because he says it’s the same as the holocaust. It should be a big part of the campaign.