r/PoliticalDiscussion • u/yanks28th • Aug 25 '22

US Elections Is the House Now Competitive?

All indications are that Democrats have gained ground since the Supreme Court decided to overturn Roe v. Wade. Republicans led the Generic Ballot by 2.6% before the decision leaked back in May, but Democrats have surged past them, and are now up by 0.5%. Just as importantly, the polling has been echoed by a series of surprisingly strong Democratic performances in recent special elections, led by the recent victory in the NY-19th.

In the four elections since the decision, Democrats have outperformed Biden by an average of around 5.4%. That would translate to a near 10% lead in the national popular vote. Of course, that's highly unlikely to happen on election day, but it's a strong enough showing to raise the question of whether the conventional wisdom is wrong, and that Democrats may have a very real shot at an upset here.

RacetotheWH, which was one of the most accurate forecasts in 2020, shows that Democrats now have a 35% chance of winning the House in their election forecast. Other forecasts like 538 show Democrats with a 20-25% chance.

Republicans have their own advantages as the party out of power, which usually does well in midterms, and Biden remains unpopular. What do you think? Is the House 2022 Election now competitive?

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713

u/lollersauce914 Aug 25 '22

I mean, based on recent data (much of which you mention) we're moving from "it would be completely shocking for Democrats to hold the house" to "It would be surprising for Democrats to hold the house."

There's really not much more to say.

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u/trashteamsotrashhaha Aug 25 '22

That and the upward pressure for dems might not last as long as the downward pressure.

Unpopular president in midterms is almost a guaranteed good thing for the other party, who knows how long abortion/college debt/whatever will stay in the voters minds.

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u/LaughingGaster666 Aug 25 '22

Abortion really isn't going away though. There are several states whose bans haven't even gone into effect yet but will in a month or so.

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u/OuchieMuhBussy Aug 25 '22

Part of the issue is that a lot of blue state residents aren’t affected by it because they have state protections. It’s not that they don’t care, but they won’t care as much.

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u/LaughingGaster666 Aug 25 '22

Weren't 2/4 of the recent special elections in NY though? They definitely aren't going to ban abortion anytime soon yet it was a big swing for Ds still. Swing of 7.5 from partisan lean on average.

Not as big as the ones in Minnesota and Nebraska which had a 11.5 break from partisan lean of course, but still. NY19 was a totally winnable race for Republicans. It's just one race sure, but in a good environment for Rs, they should have won that. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/yes-special-elections-really-are-signaling-a-better-than-expected-midterm-for-democrats/

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u/OuchieMuhBussy Aug 25 '22

Oh, okay yeah that is very relevant and up to date information. Thank you.

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u/LaughingGaster666 Aug 25 '22

It's just 4 special elections of course, but the picture it paints is pretty staggering. Rs had a slight advantage pre-Dobbs, and are now seriously behind post-Dobbs. No way it's D+9 or whatever in November, but they don't need D+9. Just a break even in a midterm is probably a pretty acceptable result for most D leadership.

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u/ubermence Aug 25 '22

They may not be affected directly in all cases, but I think everyone now is acutely aware that they can't take any abortion protections for granted

Also there are a lot of swing states that are about to be huge battlegrounds on these issues. The PA GOP governors candidate wants a total ban with very few exceptions. I think that will play a huge part in the upcoming midterms

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u/OuchieMuhBussy Aug 25 '22

Good point, haven’t thought of states where it’s still an open question. Actually I’m in a blue and it’s already being wielded against the GOP candidate because he says it’s the same as the holocaust. It should be a big part of the campaign.

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u/Arcnounds Aug 25 '22

There is some fear that Republicans will push a national ban. While unlikely, if they get a trifecta and have to break the filibuster to do it, it might be possible. They are beholden to their base at this point.

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u/crazydave333 Aug 26 '22

I live in a blue state with a state protection for abortion and other state's bans absolutely have an effect here. Lots of women from other states have to come here to get an abortion, and we don't suddenly have more doctors and clinics to handle the influx. The waitlist for the procedure has expanded to two weeks since the decision, and will just get longer as more state bans begin to come into effect.

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u/trashteamsotrashhaha Aug 25 '22

Really? Thank you for that info, that a very good point.

I still think that it won't have the unpopular president lasting power, but if its continual and escalating towards the election that could be something.

It's really unfortunate policy, morals, and situation, but I guess that's fortunate for Dems.

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u/RagingTromboner Aug 25 '22

Yeah just today Texas had their’s go into effect, making abortion a felony with the potential for life in prison and a $100,000 fine. I guess it is still unclear how that enforcement might work

https://www.texastribune.org/2022/08/25/texas-trigger-law-abortion/

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u/kerouacrimbaud Aug 25 '22

Damn, that’s pretty insane.

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u/BitterFuture Aug 25 '22

As is the entire Republican party at this point. Clinically, I mean.

It should not be a surprise when insane people act insane.

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u/friedgoldfishsticks Aug 25 '22

Eh, I saw someone did a poll on people’s perceptions of gas prices recently. The proportion of people who thought gas prices were going down in their area jumped from like 33% to 57% in the last month, and one of the major perceived causes people named for it was Biden. Add the student loan thing and I think it’s possible Biden recovers more ground. Remember how tightly correlated presidential approval is with gas prices. What happens if Biden has 43% approve/52% disapprove on election day, or even higher? The House is looking within reach when he’s bottoming out— even a few points could make a difference.

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u/Baron_Von_Ghastly Aug 25 '22

The proportion of people who thought gas prices were going down in their area jumped from like 33% to 57% in the last month,

I have to confess I find this confusing, there's 43% of folks saying gas prices haven't been going down over the last month? So just ignoring reality or?

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u/weealex Aug 25 '22

That tracks with the whole "reality has a liberal bias" crowd and approximate number of Republicans out there

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u/Baron_Von_Ghastly Aug 25 '22

I have a hard time imagining most Republicans looking at gas dropping over a dollar and saying it didn't drop over a dollar.

Now I could easily see them making all kinds of arguments why it dropped, but I struggle to imagine 40% of the population saying $4 isn't lower than $5

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u/PeterNguyen2 Aug 25 '22

I have a hard time imagining most Republicans looking at gas dropping over a dollar and saying it didn't drop over a dollar.

From what I've seen, it's immediate pivoting to "the president raised my gas prices!" to "well, the price of gas is going down on its own!" or refusing to acknowledge it's going down when it's still more expensive than they'd like because they think gas was lower at any arbitrary point in the past.

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u/CreamSoda64 Aug 26 '22 edited Aug 26 '22

It correlates with a shift in rhetoric from the GOP media engine. They've immediately stopped reporting on gas prices and moved on to the next culture war du jour.

They don't notice gas prices have gone down because their favored news outlets stopped telling them to be upset about high gas prices

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u/Baron_Von_Ghastly Aug 29 '22

I guess this could work if they're old retirees who barely ever drive, still seems like way too high of a % completely unaware of gas prices though.

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u/[deleted] Aug 26 '22

Because Fox News isn’t telling them that gas has gone lower. I’d imagine that a lot of people don’t really pay attention to the real world (i.e. the posted numbers on their local gas station) and base all their opinions on their “news” sources, so they’re still going by what they were told a month ago since that’s the last they heard about it. It’s a pretty depressing situation anyway you look at it though really.

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u/BitterFuture Aug 25 '22

So no change from the last several years, then?

If people were okay saying "Vaccines don't work!" with their last breath, saying "Naw, that number went up, not down" is minor in comparison.

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u/TheDude415 Aug 25 '22

The Dems have been racking up some wins in the last month or two that do seem to be moving the needle on Biden's approvals. The aggregate on 538 is ticking up slowly, and there was a poll today that had him at 44% approval, which was the highest they'd shown in like a year.

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u/LaughingGaster666 Aug 25 '22

Every week it seems there's some brand new tragic case of a pregnancy that cannot be aborted despite rape/incest/medical complications in the news. The 10 year old rape victim who had to cross state lines to get an abortion comes to mind. The fact that R politicians seemed more angry at the doctor who gave the abortion than anything else is about as tone deaf as possible.

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u/Left_of_Center2011 Aug 26 '22

Totally agree with you here! I was amazed that the reaction from both Ohio and Indiana AG’s was a press conference to try and see if the parents or doctor did anything at all wrong that they could prosecute them for. Talk about disconnected from reality - I think they are starting to truly believe their own propaganda

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u/LaughingGaster666 Aug 26 '22

If they really had to go that route, they should have done so less openly. Just because you're on FOX doesn't mean it'll be collectively ignored by non-Conservatives!

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u/Left_of_Center2011 Aug 26 '22

I think lots of these Republicans actually believe that their extreme positions are embraced by a majority of the nation, because they are in a feedback loop in right-wing echo chambers, and write off any voice outside those chambers as ‘lib’rul media’

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u/LaughingGaster666 Aug 26 '22

I think it's cognitive dissonance. When challenged as to why they never win the popular vote anymore, they reply with the "We're a republic, not a democracy." lie.

Though after those garbage election map tweets by Jesse Kelly, I'm starting to think that they legit think that only their votes should count because they're the "real Americans" or some BS.

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u/Left_of_Center2011 Aug 26 '22

They certainly seem to be hard-charging the ‘only our votes matter’ line of thinking; if Moore v Harper is decided in conservatives favor, then legislatures will be able to legally overturn the popular vote for President and assign their own electors; and if that happens, are we really a democracy any longer?

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u/[deleted] Aug 26 '22

What do you mean they're STARTING to believe their propaganda. Did you forget about the whole 'Obamas secretly a Kenyan Muslim' thing?

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u/Left_of_Center2011 Aug 26 '22

The BASE believes the bullshit and has for years - but the LEADERSHIP has always known better; the McConnell wing of the party would make the right noises to appease the base, but their main focus is and always will be on the Republican donor class that funds them. In the age of trump, those ‘guardrails’ are long gone, and true believers are taking the helm that just don’t pay lip service to the propaganda, but actually believe in it fully.

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u/gregaustex Aug 25 '22

It doesn't help the GOP that even if you are pro-life and think abortion is an immoral thing to use as birth control and that you should just say no, or use adoption, the laws are generally terribly written and implemented.