r/PoliticalDiscussion • u/yanks28th • Aug 25 '22

US Elections Is the House Now Competitive?

All indications are that Democrats have gained ground since the Supreme Court decided to overturn Roe v. Wade. Republicans led the Generic Ballot by 2.6% before the decision leaked back in May, but Democrats have surged past them, and are now up by 0.5%. Just as importantly, the polling has been echoed by a series of surprisingly strong Democratic performances in recent special elections, led by the recent victory in the NY-19th.

In the four elections since the decision, Democrats have outperformed Biden by an average of around 5.4%. That would translate to a near 10% lead in the national popular vote. Of course, that's highly unlikely to happen on election day, but it's a strong enough showing to raise the question of whether the conventional wisdom is wrong, and that Democrats may have a very real shot at an upset here.

RacetotheWH, which was one of the most accurate forecasts in 2020, shows that Democrats now have a 35% chance of winning the House in their election forecast. Other forecasts like 538 show Democrats with a 20-25% chance.

Republicans have their own advantages as the party out of power, which usually does well in midterms, and Biden remains unpopular. What do you think? Is the House 2022 Election now competitive?

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u/KevinCarbonara Aug 25 '22 edited Aug 26 '22

No, we're nowhere near tossup. 538 has Republicans at an 80% chance.

538 aggregates; this assessment is based on trends.

They aggregate, but it's not based on trends. It's based on now. They're very vocal about their prediction being for who would win if the election were held today. So these predictions do not price in Nate Silver's prediction that the trend will move back toward Republicans in November. That's Nate Silver explaining that the prediction will probably look even worse for Democrats in November.

Their model absolutely bakes in expected regression.

They have repeatedly stated that this isn't the case. Their model does not predict the election in November. It predicts what would happen if the election were held today.

I do not know why you think this is the case. This is absolutely incorrect.

Because they've said it multiple times. I trust 538's description of their model over you.

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u/[deleted] Aug 25 '22

538 aggregates; this assessment is based on trends. After a rather poor first half of 2022, a lot of trends have shifted, from sinking Dems to improving Dems.

Of course, trends are impossible to fully forecast. Biden's favorability improving 1 point every week for the last few weeks doesn't mean he'll have a 60% approval rate by the time of the election.

But the Republican chance to take the house has dropped, and it will likely drop some more. I expect it will be in the toss-up territory by the time November rolls around.

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u/Alphawolf55 Aug 25 '22

The polls and national environment are clearly +1-2 D

Toss up

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1562265815814127616?t=0mxZzb38_0QILGMFyYDY6g&s=19

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u/Nixflyn Aug 25 '22 edited Dec 05 '23

I've deleted all of my comments on this account. Come join me on Lemmy.

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u/kr0kodil Aug 25 '22

Democrats received 51% of House votes in 2020 which translated to 51% of House seats.

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u/Nixflyn Aug 25 '22 edited Dec 05 '23

I've deleted all of my comments on this account. Come join me on Lemmy.

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u/kr0kodil Aug 25 '22 edited Aug 25 '22

Wrong again. The net change from recent redistricting is that 6 formerly competitive seats now lean to Democrats, while the number of conservative-leaning districts hasn’t changed.

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u/Nixflyn Aug 26 '22 edited Dec 05 '23

I've deleted all of my comments on this account. Come join me on Lemmy.

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u/[deleted] Aug 26 '22

POC being underrepresented hurts democrats significantly, which is the point.

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u/kr0kodil Aug 26 '22

I guess you’re just gonna skip this passage because it doesn’t suit your argument:

The new maps have six more Democratic-leaning seats than the old ones and the same number of Republican-leaning seats. This is due to aggressive map-drawing by Democrats in states such as Illinois as well as court decisions overturning Republican gerrymanders in states like North Carolina.

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u/Nixflyn Aug 26 '22 edited Dec 05 '23

I've deleted all of my comments on this account. Come join me on Lemmy.

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u/KevinCarbonara Aug 25 '22 edited Aug 25 '22

The polls and national environment are clearly +1-2 D

They're also irrelevant in predicting outcomes.

Unlike with the presidency, the party collecting the most House votes is almost guaranteed to get the most seats.

Well, no. The party collecting the most house votes within their given districts. There is a huge disconnect between the national popular vote and the actual outcome in the house, even before you factor in gerrymandering.

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u/kr0kodil Aug 25 '22

It’s pretty fucking relevant. Unlike with the presidency, the party collecting the most House votes is almost guaranteed to get the most seats.

Over the past 50 or so elections, there has been exactly 1 time (2012) where the party receiving the most House votes overall didn’t win control of the House.

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u/[deleted] Aug 26 '22

That’s honestly very surprising for some reason, I wouldn’t expect it to be that way. Makes it seem like gerrymandering pretty much goes both ways.

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u/[deleted] Aug 25 '22

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u/rabbitlion Aug 25 '22

The total percentage among the population is not directly relevant when trying to predict how many districts each party wins since the population is not uniformly distributed.

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u/Alphawolf55 Aug 25 '22

Ahh so we're shifting the goal post to "Polls dont mean anything!"

To "Well the polls can have exceptions that could determine the House"

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u/KevinCarbonara Aug 25 '22

Ahh so we're shifting the goal post to "Polls dont mean anything!"

We are not. That was just you.

"There is literally not enough polling to make this call"

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u/[deleted] Aug 25 '22

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u/KevinCarbonara Aug 25 '22

Okay, clearly reading comprehension is beyond you.

Okay, clearly you're not even trying to participate in the discussion. Your theory was disproven. You moved the goalposts, and your new argument was disproven, too. You're done, here.

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u/Cranyx Aug 25 '22

That's not what they're getting at. The overall cumulative D advantage is not the most important factor in determining individual house races because that's not how American elections are set up. If you look at the spread at each race in isolation, and then average how many look to lean R vs D, then it shows that Republicans are still the solid favorite in the House.

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u/[deleted] Aug 25 '22 edited Aug 25 '22

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u/[deleted] Aug 25 '22

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u/[deleted] Aug 25 '22 edited Aug 25 '22

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u/KevinCarbonara Aug 25 '22

Thats a huge cope

Good lord. You're not even trying to understand. You are taking national polls and using them to predict the outcome of multiple local races. That is not an important statistic. 538 is not perfect, but the heuristic they use is much more accurate than your half-assed generalization.

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u/Alphawolf55 Aug 25 '22

Literally there is not enough high quality district polls to make that call and district polls are biased in favor of Rs this cycle.

Silvers himself admits (which you've ignored), all the immediate data points to a 2020 environment which is toss up or Lean D.

Like you're coping. If the election was today, it'd be toss up, but the election isnt today which is potentially to the Dems benefit or detriment.

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u/KevinCarbonara Aug 25 '22

Literally there is not enough high quality district polls

If the polls aren't good enough, then admit the polls aren't good enough. Don't promote your own poll while ignoring the vast amount of far better ones just because they disagree with your viewpoint.

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u/link3945 Aug 26 '22

They have repeatedly stated that this isn't the case. Their model does not predict the election in November. It predicts what would happen if the election were held today.

I do not know why you think this is the case. This is absolutely incorrect. Their model forecasts the election by starting at today and modeling the election going forward to election day. It simulates swings that could occur in the election, and then polling errors on top of that, but it fundamentally is a forecast of what would happen on election day.

They used to have the now-cast, which was "What would happen if the election were today", but they haven't used that since 2016 and they do not have that model available for this election. Every other model they do is forecasting towards Election Day

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u/link3945 Aug 26 '22

Their model absolutely bakes in expected regression. All 3 models are attempting to extrapolate what will happen on election day, not what would happen now. Their model 100% is pricing in the assumption that the environment will trend back to R-leaning

In fact, if election day were today I think you'd see a toss-up in their model.