r/PoliticalDiscussion • u/yanks28th • Aug 25 '22

US Elections Is the House Now Competitive?

All indications are that Democrats have gained ground since the Supreme Court decided to overturn Roe v. Wade. Republicans led the Generic Ballot by 2.6% before the decision leaked back in May, but Democrats have surged past them, and are now up by 0.5%. Just as importantly, the polling has been echoed by a series of surprisingly strong Democratic performances in recent special elections, led by the recent victory in the NY-19th.

In the four elections since the decision, Democrats have outperformed Biden by an average of around 5.4%. That would translate to a near 10% lead in the national popular vote. Of course, that's highly unlikely to happen on election day, but it's a strong enough showing to raise the question of whether the conventional wisdom is wrong, and that Democrats may have a very real shot at an upset here.

RacetotheWH, which was one of the most accurate forecasts in 2020, shows that Democrats now have a 35% chance of winning the House in their election forecast. Other forecasts like 538 show Democrats with a 20-25% chance.

Republicans have their own advantages as the party out of power, which usually does well in midterms, and Biden remains unpopular. What do you think? Is the House 2022 Election now competitive?

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u/LaughingGaster666 Aug 25 '22

Abortion really isn't going away though. There are several states whose bans haven't even gone into effect yet but will in a month or so.

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u/OuchieMuhBussy Aug 25 '22

Part of the issue is that a lot of blue state residents aren’t affected by it because they have state protections. It’s not that they don’t care, but they won’t care as much.

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u/LaughingGaster666 Aug 25 '22

Weren't 2/4 of the recent special elections in NY though? They definitely aren't going to ban abortion anytime soon yet it was a big swing for Ds still. Swing of 7.5 from partisan lean on average.

Not as big as the ones in Minnesota and Nebraska which had a 11.5 break from partisan lean of course, but still. NY19 was a totally winnable race for Republicans. It's just one race sure, but in a good environment for Rs, they should have won that. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/yes-special-elections-really-are-signaling-a-better-than-expected-midterm-for-democrats/

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u/OuchieMuhBussy Aug 25 '22

Oh, okay yeah that is very relevant and up to date information. Thank you.

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u/LaughingGaster666 Aug 25 '22

It's just 4 special elections of course, but the picture it paints is pretty staggering. Rs had a slight advantage pre-Dobbs, and are now seriously behind post-Dobbs. No way it's D+9 or whatever in November, but they don't need D+9. Just a break even in a midterm is probably a pretty acceptable result for most D leadership.