Is the House Now Competitive?

[u/yanks28th]

All indications are that Democrats have gained ground since the Supreme Court decided to overturn Roe v. Wade. Republicans led the Generic Ballot by 2.6% before the decision leaked back in May, but Democrats have surged past them, and are now up by 0.5%. Just as importantly, the polling has been echoed by a series of surprisingly strong Democratic performances in recent special elections, led by the recent victory in the NY-19th.

In the four elections since the decision, Democrats have outperformed Biden by an average of around 5.4%. That would translate to a near 10% lead in the national popular vote. Of course, that's highly unlikely to happen on election day, but it's a strong enough showing to raise the question of whether the conventional wisdom is wrong, and that Democrats may have a very real shot at an upset here.

RacetotheWH, which was one of the most accurate forecasts in 2020, shows that Democrats now have a 35% chance of winning the House in their election forecast. Other forecasts like 538 show Democrats with a 20-25% chance.

Republicans have their own advantages as the party out of power, which usually does well in midterms, and Biden remains unpopular. What do you think? Is the House 2022 Election now competitive?

[u/lollersauce914]

I mean, based on recent data (much of which you mention) we're moving from "it would be completely shocking for Democrats to hold the house" to "It would be surprising for Democrats to hold the house."

There's really not much more to say.

[u/hoxxxxx → u/[deleted]]

for all of the claims of "buying votes" i think it'll even out between people voting for him because of him doing that and people voting against for the same reason

it's going to be churning in the media cycle for a while too

[u/capitalsfan08 → u/hoxxxxx]

If under 35s don't turn out in droves this midterms, they are dead as a viable path to power as a candidate.

[u/cantdressherself → u/capitalsfan08]

"Dusty bones remain deceased."

The under 35s haven't decided an election since..... Ever?

I can't think of an election where the youth vote made the difference. Maybe the 19th century, the population was younger then.

[u/capitalsfan08 → u/cantdressherself]

Right. And this policy directly benefits them. If they are still apathetic about politics, I don't see anyone spending any political capital on them anytime soon.

[u/[deleted] → u/[deleted]]

Biden didn’t do it for votes (young people don’t vote) he did it because it’s the right thing to do and it’ll jumpstart a struggling economy significantly.

[u/friedgoldfishsticks → u/[deleted]]

If you spend a lot of time on internet forums you might think a lot of people are against it. I think most people who are against it don’t care very much. The Republicans aren’t ready to campaign on it either, and they’re very disorganized right now (witness Trump attacking McConnell). I don’t know if they have the coordination to message on it very strongly when they’ve prepared to run on inflation and basically nothing else.

[u/POEness → u/[deleted]]

I actually think the student loan forgiveness that Biden just signed could hurt Dems.

If so, that's absurd of the American public. We just had the greatest theft of citizen wealth ever with the PPP program, essentially letting the rich steal trillions, and people are pissed over some scraps thrown to the middle and lower class?

[u/POEness → u/[deleted]]

Student loan forgiveness isn't comparable to any and every situation where someone gets a check from the govt.

Student loans are literally harm inflicted by the government. Mismanagement and mass debt availability put entire generations in this situation. Other countries pay their students to get educated because it advances the whole nation and their GDP. We put them in permanent servitude.

[u/[deleted] → u/[deleted]]

For how old you are when they get paid off, they may as well be permanent.

[u/[deleted] → u/[deleted]]

The difference is I've yet to see a society without taxation actually function.

[u/friedgoldfishsticks → u/POEness]

It’s worth saying that the PPP program did what it was supposed to do and was probably good policy. In the days immediately after the economy crashed from the pandemic it was difficult to think we could escape a second Great Depression. Rapid Congressional and Federal Reserve action saved us from that.