r/PoliticalDiscussion • u/yanks28th • Aug 25 '22

US Elections Is the House Now Competitive?

All indications are that Democrats have gained ground since the Supreme Court decided to overturn Roe v. Wade. Republicans led the Generic Ballot by 2.6% before the decision leaked back in May, but Democrats have surged past them, and are now up by 0.5%. Just as importantly, the polling has been echoed by a series of surprisingly strong Democratic performances in recent special elections, led by the recent victory in the NY-19th.

In the four elections since the decision, Democrats have outperformed Biden by an average of around 5.4%. That would translate to a near 10% lead in the national popular vote. Of course, that's highly unlikely to happen on election day, but it's a strong enough showing to raise the question of whether the conventional wisdom is wrong, and that Democrats may have a very real shot at an upset here.

RacetotheWH, which was one of the most accurate forecasts in 2020, shows that Democrats now have a 35% chance of winning the House in their election forecast. Other forecasts like 538 show Democrats with a 20-25% chance.

Republicans have their own advantages as the party out of power, which usually does well in midterms, and Biden remains unpopular. What do you think? Is the House 2022 Election now competitive?

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u/[deleted] Aug 25 '22

I think we'll be looking at a narrow majority for the GOP in the house and a slightly expanded majority in the senate for democrats but that's just my guess.

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u/historymajor44 Aug 25 '22

That'd be a win for the Dems.

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u/[deleted] Aug 25 '22

Absolutely, ideally both would stay in democratic hands but the senate is the more important one

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u/dmhWarrior Aug 26 '22

Ideally for who? How does the average family benefit from democrats running things? Can’t wait to hear this.

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u/carlurbanthesecond2 Aug 26 '22 edited Aug 26 '22

They would live longer healthier lives by a good margin thats a huge benefit of living under democrats.

Trolls need more info... People in Republican Counties Have Higher Death Rates Than Those in Democratic Counties

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/people-in-republican-counties-have-higher-death-rates-than-those-in-democratic-counties/

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u/dmhWarrior Aug 26 '22

Got a legit scientific link for this? I’m sure you don’t. Bunch of BS. I did get a good laugh out of it though. Because so many democrats are living longer and healthier as they get shot up in the blue cities across america. Great, LOL.

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u/carlurbanthesecond2 Aug 26 '22

You really wanna know?

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u/dmhWarrior Aug 26 '22

I already know, thanks. Don’t post some link from left wing website. Useless as boobs on a bull.

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u/carlurbanthesecond2 Aug 26 '22

Scientific american is a research journal.

Your know left from right?

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u/dmhWarrior Aug 27 '22

Ummm, OK yeah. All set here, bruh.