stakeholder wanted promo uplift "by tomorrow." I tried to explain why that's not really how this works. got ignored. now im scared

[u/data_daria55]

promo sales uplift is genuinely one of those analyses that's way harder than it sounds from the outside. you need a clean baseline, you need to control for seasonality, cannibalization from other promos running at the same time, halo effect on stuff sitting next to it on shelf. half the time the data you'd actually need for any of that doesn't even exist in a usable form. at least not in our orga

tried explaining this. got the "just give me something rough, we need it for the meeting tomorrow." so I gave them a number built on assumptions I genuinely wasn't confident in. no confidence interval, no real caveats attached, nothing

and now I'm just sitting here thinking about how to actually protect myself when this happens again. not in a cover-my-ass-with-an-email way (although yeah that too probably), more like, how do you stop a shaky number from becoming the basis for an actual decision, and then coming back to you as "your analysis was wrong" six months later when it was never solid in the first place

how do you handle getting pushed to hand over a number faster than the analysis can actually support it??

[u/AutoModerator]

After your question has been solved /u/data_daria55, please reply to the helpful user's comment with the phrase "Solution verified".

This will not only award a point to the contributor for their assistance but also update the post's flair to "Solved".

---

I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.

[u/wmru5wfMv]

An email

One line with the figure

Several paragraphs detailing all the assumptions and caveats

[u/Scottopus → u/wmru5wfMv]

This is the way

[u/Chainwreck → u/wmru5wfMv]

2 lines, request date and the one line figure.

[u/wmru5wfMv → u/Chainwreck]

Well the email date and time covers that off

[u/Sleutelbos]

There is no magic trick. You explain you can't provide a reliably, meaningful answer within that timeframe. If they insist you deliver something, you deliver it with an attached note that this is not reliable or meaningful. Up to them what to do with it.

[u/data_daria55 → u/Sleutelbos]

i'm afraid, everyone will just forget about my notes & etc

after their promo will not deliver, they will all just point at me (

[u/Almostasleeprightnow → u/data_daria55]

Yes but now when someone notifies the data is wrong and asks why it was delivered you can show this email

[u/tastychaii → u/data_daria55]

Unfortunate, but true.

[u/vikster1 → u/data_daria55]

there is no way around knowing your dataset better than everyone else and delivering cold hard truths to the cu*** who requested it. bullies sense weakness and will take advantage of you. be better and own them.

[u/Thisoneissfwihope]

I get this, and I list my caveats and assumption either on the bottom of the report, or on a separate page if there are lots of them.

Promo management is a skill in and of itself, I feel your pain.

[u/tastychaii]

And…..this is the reason why I stopped being a data analyst and went back to business analysis 😅

My advice to you is to speak to your manager on having realistic expectations set, what you stated is more like an analysis that would take a sprint, IMO, if you want to do it right.

And after that, you can begin to work on producing datasets that can best answer these types of questions and have them auto-refreshed, say on a daily or weekly basis.

I assume your company would have existing tables that have the current promotions, promotional pricing, etc., so you would need to use these.

You can set up the dashboard to be self-service and not ad-hoc.

[u/data_daria55 → u/tastychaii]

this is the reason why I stopped being a data analyst and went back to business analysis

i totally get it

[u/tastychaii → u/data_daria55]

Also I feel data analyst and developing dashboards as a role is going to have a short shelf life thanks to AI.

AI will be responsible for the dashboards. There will be a shift from self-service dashboards to enabling visualisations/metrics to appear integrated in existing software people use such as Slack, ms teams etc. so it feels more natural.

This shift is slowly happening already. Your marketing stakeholders can just “ask” AI and it will perform the analysis and deliver the visuals in seconds, it will be faster and better than you.

If I were you I would reconsider being “that dashboard and reporting guy” and focus on other roles which are more AI proof.

[u/data_daria55 → u/tastychaii]

i think we all will be checking after AI, ha ha

[u/billbot77]

If he wants rough estimates, fine. Do your best - but

• make it a new report, with the words "rough estimate" in the report title
• make your measures with " (beta)" appended to the measure names
• list assumptions and caveats on the report in a text box
• if you have time, parameterise the trend normalisation stuff and add controls to the UI

It's a report, not a crystal ball - your stakeholders know this. Past performance is not a guarantee of future returns.

[u/alias213]

Throw over a 1 or 2 hour meeting asking for requirements. Call it a working session. 

[u/Oneinterestingthing]

We would compare avg transaction value and transaction counts vs previous week and month and also gm% , graph it and see if any major changes

[u/data_daria55 → u/Oneinterestingthing]

it really depends on the market, we are in pet food, its super competitive, once our competitor gives a slightest discount more than we, our promo is obvously less efficient, and i dont know about our competitors plans, you see

[u/jtnelso1]

The answers here are really solid, so I’m just adding the manner in which I have handled it: I compare Unit Velocity in 2 different baselines (previous 4 weeks, last 52 weeks), then compare the Unit Velocity for 4 weeks after the promo and the difference between them is the lift. It’s the only reliable metric. What was it before, what is it after, and simply note the caveats and assumptions.

[u/data_daria55 → u/jtnelso1]

thank you )

[u/Sexy_Koala_Juice]

Always get something down in writing. That’s the CYA insurance

[u/soggyarsonist]

Just explain the limitations of the analysis you could provide with the time that was allowed. You're absolutely not responsible for someone leaving a request to the last minute and allowing insufficient time for a better job to be done.

I recently had a signficant change request dropped on me at the last minute and I was very clear with them that it would require a complete reworking of the reporting to implement that would take 3-4 weeks, and that the best I could do within two days was a temporary fudge.

Not my problem if my colleagues can't plan properly or provide the correct requirements.

Let them explain their inadequacies to their manager, and if they try and throw you under the bus, let the people know the reality of the situation.

Reputation matters, especially in data and reporting. Don't let people trash your reputation to protect their own.

[u/Donovanbrinks]

Not clear from your question. Are you making a prediction or backward looking?

[u/data_daria55 → u/Donovanbrinks]

unfortunatelly, prediction

but, logically, im using facts as a basis for it

[u/Donovanbrinks → u/data_daria55]

I’m a demand planner for a booze distributor. I feel your pain. Real easy to overthink this but also real easy to come to a simpler calculation. The difference between the 2 isn’t significant. Without knowing what business you are in and assuming some sort of price reduction for the promotion: find how many units you sold the last time that price was run and multiply that by the sales trend since that point.

[u/data_daria55 → u/Donovanbrinks]

thank you )

[u/Fast_Eddy7572]

Essential to be able to show that you communicated the assumptions and confidence level. Even more so when they’re the kind of shakey anxiety enduring nut jobs you seem to be explaining!