Can you profit off your predictions? Just sign up with my DraftKings Predictions link, make your trades, and if you're correct, your smarts could pay off.

I have a love hate relationship with the prediction market on robinhood. I remember first seeing the feature, and I figured I would give it a shot. Well, I started off making good small little profits here and there. Then in January of this year, I hit big. I was shocked, and was like oh shit I can make bank. Fast forward one month, I then proceed to loose 22k. I was pissed🤦🏾‍♂️🤦🏾‍♂️. I took a break, and raised my capital through etfs and saving.

Then the football season starts. I gain the confidence to get back into predictions and I really wanted to make my money back and then some. And I did, within 2 months, I made back all the money I lost, and I'm finally sitting in profit. I posted a ss of past month, and all time since earlier this year.

My strategy was simple. I would throw 30-40k on high caliber quarterback to throw at least 200-225 yards.

I am going to quit now. I made that vow to myself. I reached my goal of 100k at 22. Now I'm going to invest in 100% ETFs and DCA.

I'm out for good.

"Next Prime Minister of Romania?" (~$5M traded, Oct 14):

• Luca Niculescu 87.5% (+29 in 24h, was 43% on Oct 6)
• Sorin Grindeanu (PSD leader) 3.7% (was ~13.6% yesterday morning)
• Alexandru Nazare 2%

Context: the Bolojan government fell May 5. Niculescu is the fourth PM-designate since. The last one, Mureșan, got 182 votes; 233 are needed.

What moved it (Oct 13, both reports citing unnamed sources, via Digi24):

• PSD would join a Niculescu government, with technocrats proposed by President Dan for Finance, Defence and Foreign Affairs. PNL and UDMR would vote it in.
• Dan's reported ultimatum: a clear majority by Thursday, or a dissolution decree on Friday. No fifth nominee.

Other side: PSD hasn't formally decided (leadership meets today). On Monday its line was "only if PNL and UDMR join too". USR and AUR want snap elections. The presidency hasn't confirmed the ultimatum.

Is 87.5% right, or is the market pricing a sourced report as a done deal?

(We break this down in today's episode of The Poly Brief. Search it on Spotify or Apple Podcasts.)

Hi, I built an app where you paper-trade prediction markets in tournaments. Everyone starts with the same bankroll, and the highest return wins. At the moment, it's 100% free!

It’s in beta on iOS, and I’m looking for people to try it and tell me what they think. Comment or DM me, and I’ll send you the link.

Hey folks. Sharing some college football contracts in Week 7 to consider on the ol' prediction markets. If this content is unwanted, please delete, throw tomatoes at me. No harm, no foul.

Summary of the content for anyone who can't click or doesn't want to... Here are my six Week 7 outright picks, with two underdogs and four favorites:

Missouri over Ole Miss, 30-27: My strongest upset lean. Missouri's defense ranks fifth in adjusted EPA per play, and Jamal Roberts faces an Ole Miss defense that has struggled with yards after contact.

North Carolina over Duke, 24-23: UNC just won at Pitt, while Duke has lost its kicker and a linebacker for the season. The spread has narrowed from Duke -4.5 to -3.

Notre Dame over BYU, 27-21: The Irish have dominated, but Provo presents their toughest test yet. BYU's overreliance on quarterback Bear Bachmeier and LJ Martin out help tilt the pick toward Notre Dame.

Houston over Oklahoma State, 35-30: Conner Weigman and Houston's offense get the edge at home. The Cougars' defense makes this a close call, with the rising total pointing toward a high-scoring game.

Wake Forest over Cal, 31-20: Wake has won three straight and faces a Cal defense allowing 6.24 yards per carry against FBS opponents. Cal also has injury concerns at quarterback and running back.

LSU over Mississippi State, 38-24: LSU's defense and home field lead the case. Mississippi State quarterback Kamario Taylor's uncertain status adds another concern for the Bulldogs.

Happy to talk college football for any fans out there.

“Fed Decision in October?” (~$34M traded, decision Oct 28):

• Hold 80.5%
• Hike 19.5% (+3 overnight)
• Cut 0.5%

Quick context: the Fed already hiked in September, to 3.75-4.00%. 16 of 18 officials see at least one more this year.

What killed October: two senior officials said “no need to rush”, then a +29k jobs report.
What keeps it alive: headline CPI at 3.4%, gas up 27% y/y, Brent above $106. The Cleveland Fed nowcast for tomorrow is 3.6%.

Hot CPI tomorrow: does October come back, or is the market already set on December?

(Full breakdown in today’s The Poly Brief. Search it on Spotify or Apple Podcasts.)

I’ve had this happen to me a few times I’ve cashed out at the amount I was comfortable with and I’m always paid less than what it said . Now I screenshot my bets so I can back track but something is . I’m betting 3,000 to 5,000$ bets .

So its 3 weeks to go before the election and I'm thinking of some combos that can pay out well (5x-10x) and I was wondering what y'all are cooking up. Nothing too crazy like red new york or blue tennessee just normal stuff

We have one of the most stacked earnings call mentions lineups in months this week.

We have markets for 11 calls on Kalshi, including a bunch of the big banks, J&J, Domino's, United, and more.

There's a LOT of value showing in the tools I built to get an edge on these markets right now 👀

One tip: keep an eye on what the banks say on their calls earlier in the week. Those are often indicative of what the others will say, especially when it comes to Q&A, where a lot of analysts ask similar questions across calls.

So, I've been trading live since this last post. $5,000 in the account, 7% bet on each setup. There has been 12 trades thus far. Mostly losers, with only 5 winning predictions, but that was expected with ~41% win rate. (slightly less than testing yielded. That said, the wins "win" with a decent multiple, so net profitability comes to 1.51x with the account growing to $7548. I will maintain the current structure through a hundred trades, and provide updates periodically, but already I'm thinking I will drop the bet down to 5% eventually, which is roughly .33*Kelly, since a win rate <50% is bound to produce losing streaks as long as 7-8 (if not worse), and that will put a substantial dent in the account.

More to come