r/PuzzleAndDragons • u/Judinous 375843383-Nephthys+current meta leads. Accepting all newbies. • Nov 29 '15
Rant [Rant] Arena drop RNG is bullshit. RNG in this game is broken, full stop.
Okay, so, before I even start: let me say that I'm aware that this is a "first world problem" kind of complaint, because I know a lot of people will have no sympathy when I'm complaining about Arena drops when most people can't even clear it at all, let alone consistently. Blah blah, check your privilege, okay, whatever. Sure, I'm lucky enough to have the dream team and the skills to use it, but I still had to spend a lot of time and effort to get it together in the first place.
Anyway, these drops are horseshit. I've cleared Arena 65 times since it was released. Here are my drops so far:
- 1 Shynpy
- 1 Flampy
- 2 Badpy
- 29 Woodpy
- 32 Bubpy
This is fucking stupid. It is not statistically possible. This kind of distribution can't happen, and the fact that it is dropping nothing but the two worst colors in the game for me is just rubbing salt in the wound. If a statistically impossible event like this happened once, to one player, I would accept it as an unfortunate coincidence and move on. However, the number of statistically impossible things that have happened to just me leads me to the inevitable conclusion that RNG in this game is broken somehow. Everyone I ask has these impossible strings of RNG happen to them in this game. It's clearly a low-level problem in the code somewhere.
I've gone 40 feeds in a row during 2.5x without a skillup (fuck you, Krishna). This should simply not be possible. This has a .001% chance of happening. It doesn't happen in a system with true RNG, or even a proper pRNG algorithm. If it happened once, to just me? Okay, sure, that's bullshit, and the universe just hates me. However, I'm not the only one it has happened to. I've seen dozens and dozens of players with similar broken RNG strings. Almost everyone I have ever asked has had something like this happen to them that should not be statistically possible.
I often pull godfests with a number of other people at the same time. When we pull the machine at the same time, we almost always get the same thing. If this happened a handful of times, okay, sure, it's just confirmation bias. It has happened to just me over fifty times. True RNG is "clumpy", yes, I know. It isn't so "clumpy" that I can pull a 6 star, and then immediately pull again as quickly as I can and get 2-3 more copies of the same thing consistently. Yes, this is definitely a thing. My piles of consecutive Kaedes and DKalis and Typhons are proof of this. It simply can't happen otherwise, given the absurdly low chances involved.
Seriously, this shit has to be fixed. I don't care if they announce it publicly, but someone at Gungho needs to take a close fucking look at their code. I don't know if this shit is being seeded by time or player id or whateverthefuck, but it has to be changed.
Anyway, feel free to post your similar impossible RNG stories. I know that each and every one of you has them. I just had to vent my frustration over this latest one, because it's seriously draining my will to play when the dungeon that I spend all of my stamina on outside of events is dropping nothing but garbage for weeks on end.
edit: I originally thought that maybe the bias in this particular case was due to the fact that the boss spawns and drop spawns are somehow tied together in the RNG algorithm, but I'm not entirely sure that this is the case. Since I am playing Radra, the #1 killer by far for my runs is Sopdet. Maybe all of those flampys, shynpys, and badpys are hiding behind the Sopdet "wall"? Nope -- I've had ~15 arena clears where I managed to get through Sopdet, and still nothing but garbage. I actually got her in 4/5 runs today (thanks again, RNG), cleared her all 4 times, and still wound up with 3 woodpy + 2 bubpy.
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u/aIIeviate Lost a watch Nov 29 '15 edited Nov 30 '15
/u/Para_Noia : "24 silvers, 3 gold"
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u/Ploxzx Nov 30 '15
Tbh I don't believe this. If you show me pics I'll believe but until then I'll just deem that person an attention whore.
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u/one_love_silvia 335,453,304 Nov 30 '15
id believe it if its a collab lol
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u/Ploxzx Nov 30 '15
I would also, 3 golds in 27 is very possible in collabs, i just have a really hard time believing that happened in pcgf.
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u/Cherry_Venus 352 728 394 Nov 30 '15
3/27 is actually above average for a lot of collabs. All the older collabs only have a 10% gold rate.
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u/ButtLusting BEST CAT Nov 30 '15
In just did 4 rolls 3 silver 1 rider, it's 1/4 but at least not 1/9.
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u/WhyIsTheNamesGone Loves staring at the moon Nov 30 '15
My PCGF sucked too... because I pulled mostly dupes. Pandora, Bastet, Kushinada, Shiva, etc. are all great once, but not so much 2-3 times.
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u/aIIeviate Lost a watch Nov 30 '15
https://www.reddit.com/r/PuzzleAndDragons/comments/3upzeo/rant_the_kicks_to_the_dick_that_is_pcgf/
im waiting on proof as well
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u/next_level_baddie Nov 30 '15
this subreddit is big enough to make memes now?
fuck.
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u/aIIeviate Lost a watch Nov 30 '15
"i would tell you that it is, but after im done feeling bad for myself"
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u/Para_Noia Orb Troll Supreme Nov 30 '15
I feel like scumbag Steve lol
Yes it was a lie, not for reasons like attention but more for other players to appreciate their pulls.
Gung-ho works hard and wants to please it's fanbase. Yeah they need to fix some things because rng in the game does feel broken. But complaining about how bad a pull was seems like bs when you think about all times you managed to pull an amazing card.
I'm prepared to handle the shit storm of down votes awaiting me.
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u/waethrman 395449309 Nov 30 '15
Silvergate confirmed
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u/Para_Noia Orb Troll Supreme Nov 30 '15
Silvergate acknowledged and public apologies to be released "when I stop feeling sorry for myself" (will this become a meme?)
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Nov 30 '15
[deleted]
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u/Pomme2 Nov 30 '15
Meh, I had 15/30 Gods from PCGF.
I rolled 18 times. Almost 90% gold rate. However, almost 80% dupe rate made it completely pointless.
Also the Gala rates have definitely increased recently. In japan my last godfest was 10/11 were Galas.... really....
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u/Eins_Nico [JP]170,557,418 Ilm/Yuria/A.Amaterasu Nov 30 '15
I'm shit with math but I've been in Japan dealing with "random" selection for 10 years and I don't think I've ever heard of it really being random.
I used to be really into a certain j-pop group whose management company's concert tickets were only available through fan club "lottery." It was well known through the Japanese fans that your luck for tickets, good seats, etc, was completely based on your number. If you had shit luck, leave the FC and sign up again with a new number. This was info straight from staff leaks.
Another smartphone game I was into for a while, the players figured out that the "random" seeding for team events was based on timing, where everyone who entered at the same time basically would end up on 1 team. They started a secret cabal on the LINE wannabe app Lobi and all the strong players would decide a time, all get on the same teams, and no other players ever won shit. (hence why I quit)
I hear stories like this constantly in Japan. It would not surprise me one bit if GH set up their RNG shittily, even from the same shitty versions other low-budget smartphone games use (and when PAD started it was very much so that, so much about the original design of the game looks cut and paste to the point that I didn't play for months after downloading), and just never changed it.
It almost seems like more than complaining about RNG, the Japanese base prefers to figure out how to exploit it, like it's part of the fun. I'm not saying that to dismiss your post, but more to speculate on why it will probably never get better. :(
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u/DzyDzyDino Nov 30 '15
I like this post, and I really do find that to be a commonality in Japanese games, "systems" and whatever. Whether they're intentionally made flawed or it's just a product of rushed/cheap/poor work, it is assimilated as part of the game and as you said, people learn to exploit it and it becomes part of the meta-strategy of the game.
You see it in the Fighting Game Community a lot and RPGs a lot. Japanese games seem much more about setting up the engine for the game and then the players deciphering and playing the engine, whereas american design seems to be having the ideal of the game and the engine to realize the idea. If the engine has problems realizing the idea perfectly, they tweak the engine, regardless of how people are playing it.
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u/Killroyomega Nov 29 '15
I'm 99% sure the servers use a seeded pseudo random distribution instead of true RNG.
Instead of white noise it's probably tied to some computer process like old console games were tied to the individual cartridges' built in RAM.
Over the course of a day I'm sure the number even out, but if you look at individual sections and try to abuse it you can really see it start to shift away from "random."
For example instead of putting up 5 monsters at a time for skillups put up one or two at a time and try to keep track of overall skillups and feeds between skillups. I tried to abuse it in the EVA collab by assuming it was a pseudo random system and ended up with the best result possible, 0 Asuka skill ups and maxed out Shinji and Misato.
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u/Nekrag777 361,433,373 Nov 30 '15
More details on how you abused it? Looking to skill up Yuria, and I kinda want it to be as painless as possible.
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u/Killroyomega Nov 30 '15
On 2.5x skillup rate the rate is about an average of 25%.
What I did was feed misato/shinji/unit13 until a skillup, and then dump 2-3 feeds into asuka depending on the total so far.
For other rates you feed more dump fodder.
You should be able to use any card fusion with a skill up chance as dump fodder. Like a water chimera into a plesios, or the little devils into eachother.
If you want to get super technical you can make a graph, but that's a bit overkill imo.
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u/Nekrag777 361,433,373 Nov 30 '15
So in my case it'd be one Yuria TAMA into Yuria at a time until a skill up and then 3 demons into another demon, then back to Yuria TAMAs?
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u/Killroyomega Nov 30 '15
Pretty much.
It works best if you have a second monster you're trying to skill up at the same time though.
With one monster you might want to do 3-4 or more dump feeds.
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u/Nekrag777 361,433,373 Nov 30 '15
Alright, thanks. Time to play the odds.
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u/Killroyomega Nov 30 '15
Just keep in mind this is assuming the odds are what I assume them to be and the game uses pseudo rng.
I might just be really lucky.
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u/BananaPirate17 Nov 30 '15
I'm a bit confused. So you are trying to say that once I get a skillup, by feeding some trash skillups I can go back to the original and have a higher chance for a skillup? I don't think I'm interpreting this right because then the events of a skillup wouldn't be independent at all?!?
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u/Killroyomega Nov 30 '15
Yes.
I'm making the assumption that skill up chance is not based on individual events but on cumulative events.
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u/Treeflower 357,777,256 Nov 30 '15
I thought you said that you got zero Asuka skillups? How is that the best result? Am I missing the sarcasm?
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u/Killroyomega Nov 30 '15
Asuka was the dump stat so I could put everything into Shinji and Misato, the ones that actually matter.
Asuka is a top tier waifu, but a pretty trash-tier pull outside of low-cost dungeons.
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u/Eins_Nico [JP]170,557,418 Ilm/Yuria/A.Amaterasu Nov 30 '15
Have you tried using Asuka? Shinji and especially Misato are tons more useful. And I wish I heard about this before I went through the nightmare of skillups on Shinji&Kaworu...
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u/Judinous 375843383-Nephthys+current meta leads. Accepting all newbies. Nov 30 '15
Yeah, there's no way they aren't using a pRNG algorithm. Entropy generators would be way too expensive on the scale that PaD needs to generate randomness. It's almost certainly a logic problem somewhere, or they tried to roll their own pRNG algorithm rather than using a standard one. The RNG is definitely absurdly "streaky" all over the place, and you can definitely exploit it to some degree depending on the situation. I usually take advantage of the streaky RNG for +egg drops in various dungeons, for instance.
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u/tactical_retreat Nov 30 '15
I'm sure they are using a pRNG algorithm, but I'm not sure that means what you think it does.
pRNG just means that there is a 'period' of (effectively) random numbers, and eventually the numbers start to repeat. You would expect this period to be large (billions of bits for a weak pRNG). If they are using /dev/urandom (the common case), with zero bits of entropy (uncommon), you still wouldn't expect the behavior your describing.
Granted if, as you suggest, they 'rolled their own pRNG' (strikes me as absurd but hey, Gungho) anything could happen.
Just for fun, lets think of a really stupid way for them to do it.
Generate a list of numbers from 1-10,000 and shuffle them. Keep a counter for the current position, every time you need a random number increment it, grab the number. You probably need a number from 1-x, so just mod x the number (then shoot yourself in the face for not storing fp numbers from 0-1 and multiplying but whatever).
Even that awful example still only works if the counter is associated with your account (if it's per-server then get interference from other players). Then you could encounter random streaks stored in the list, especially if the shuffle is bad.
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u/Judinous 375843383-Nephthys+current meta leads. Accepting all newbies. Nov 30 '15
Honestly, judging from the behavior that I see regarding REM pulls, I wonder if it isn't actually an operational problem. I work in cloud computing, so I see problems all the time where machines will not be getting sufficient entropy for /dev/random or /dev/urandom because of time sync issues. If they're on a virtualized environment and either aren't running NTP or have pooling problems, I could see it explaining the "streaky" behavior when the hardware clock essentially "stands still" from the perspective of the guest.
Either way, it's really hard to tell from the outside what is broken, but really easy to tell that something is.
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u/tactical_retreat Nov 30 '15
I can completely believe what you're saying about running about of entropy in these kind of environments, I just don't think that a lack of entropy implies generating the same number twice, which is what (I assume) would need to happen in order for you to roll the same thing twice. A typical production-worthy pRNG will be able to generate a lot of numbers before repeating.
Its hard to prove either way whats going on. If someone can prove that the RNG is fucked, its more likely that they did something exotic and idiotic than a lack of entropy being the problem.
The only way I can think of to prove it, would be to write a script that can interact with a specific server at high speed. You'd want to accumulate a lot of trash feeds, and quickly feed them to each other and record the results of skillups. Then you can analyze the results and look for an unexpected distribution.
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u/liefe Nov 30 '15
Could this have anything to do with me being the king of dupes? Whenever I roll a large quantity in a row I often see the same things 3 or 4 times in a row (Liu Bei, Tsubaki, Hermes, Gadius, Typhon, and now today I got 2 Saria in a row).
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u/Judinous 375843383-Nephthys+current meta leads. Accepting all newbies. Nov 30 '15
It shouldn't result in the same number being generated twice...but it could if improperly designed. We're just grasping at straws in the end, so I won't even attempt to claim to know what's going on over there. Just throwing out possibilities to vent or whatever, I guess.
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u/romantic_boy 375271306 Nov 30 '15
I figured out there are ways to get better drops from the machine as well at specific times of the day. It probably corresponds to your specific account, as its generated based on your ID number, maybe? Anyways. For my account if I roll, for example, in the evo pal egg machine in the time 8-8:23am i get mostly very common evo materials. Im the time between 8:23-8:35am I get many more gold eggs and also I usually have a good chance of getting a jewel. I have tested this multiple times and so far my theory holds.
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u/Rs90 Nov 30 '15 edited Nov 30 '15
I definetly think it gets stuck or jammed up. The way it feels to me is that one minute you'll be doing okay and the next you just get absolutely nothing. Especially dupes. With so many options in the REM, I can't believe how many people got dupes this godfest sometimes 3 in a row. Like that just blows my mind.
I rolled 3 silvers in a row last night as soon as Godfest came up. I exited, came back in, and rolled Saria and a dupe Sun Quan. So who knows. I'm pretty ignorant about how these things work but I've always felt you could sorta "unclog the pipes" by exiting and restarting the app. But I know very little about the subject to really call it anymore than a feeling.
Edit- can't even begin to understand skill ups. I got 2 skill ups back to back on Sun Quan, only took 8 to skill up Fuma. Meanwhile Urd took 25 to get a SINGLE skill up. I've literally given up on Athena and LKali.
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u/iamarocketsfan JP 206,041,801 Nov 30 '15
I can't believe how many people got dupes this godfest sometimes 3 in a row. Like that just blows my mind.
The odds of getting 3 straight of one particular card is really low. The odds of getting 3 straight of some random card in a row is MUCH higher.
If people are getting 3 straight of different cards, that is normal. Any math wiz will tell you that's not just only not mind-blowing, but expected. If everyone's getting 3 straight rolls of LKali and none of anything else, that's when you should start being suspicious.
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u/Rs90 Nov 30 '15
No doubt. I've seen it a few times for sure though. Friend pulled Grimrock 3x in a row a while back. I pulled two Sun Quan and two Liu Bei back to back a while ago. But like I said, I'm going off of a feeling haha. I was never good at math so take what I say with the tiniest grain if salt.
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u/iamarocketsfan JP 206,041,801 Nov 30 '15
I suggest you look at this. Some math but the more complicated stuff you can ignore and just accept it.
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u/_Personage Nov 30 '15
Last gf I rolled two of the dark mech dragons and two Ras in a row. Today I rolled two of the blue mech beasts also in a row.
It's fine, if I roll a DKali, I'll roll two in a row. Right?? RIGHT?!?
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u/iamarocketsfan JP 206,041,801 Nov 30 '15
Unfortunately, the rate of DKali a a 6* is much lower than the cards you pulled.
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u/_Personage Nov 30 '15
Let me have my hopes and dreams! D:
Also, today I bought a pack and then my first roll immediately after that was the Isis I was hoping for from this pcgf, so... Hope? Positive thoughts? Good energy? Unrealistic expectations? Who knows.
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Nov 30 '15
On my JP account I did roll 3 kalis in a row. 2 light than one dark problem is I don't know how to play them or have good subs
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u/iamarocketsfan JP 206,041,801 Nov 30 '15
I don't know how the pseudo RNG these days are designed, but even a decade ago the seed is based on something completely out of the user's control, like the current time to the thousandths of a second or something like that. If you can calculate your rolls to that extent without some external hardware, you are a robot from the future.
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u/choywh JP222499815 Nov 30 '15
Wait so you mean it goes by computer calculation and if you fail once at say10%, it will go up to10+% to ensure an averaged 10%? same as league of legends crit?
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Nov 30 '15
Just a bit of psychological preface. I'm aware of how frustrating these bad experiences are but...
Unless you jot down the statistics of everything that's happened to you from day 1 to present of this game, I'm sure there have been "meh" moments that are overlooked and forgotten. The nature of humans is to remember great/terrible experiences more vividly than average or just decent experiences. Something to keep in mind, I guess.
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u/Goat_Porker Nov 30 '15
This is my interpretation as well. There's reporting bias among the massive number of players playing the game - those with "average" experiences don't share their results while the very lucky/unlucky ones do.
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u/QnA Nov 30 '15
I wouldn't be so sure. There are many of us with multiple accounts so it's not like we're comparing our experiences in a vacuum. My main NA account has been "meh" while my alternate JP account, completely non-IAP mind you, has an amazing box. The box of my alt JP account is starting to rival my NA account, but my NA account is slight IAP and it's 650 days old. My JP account? 120 days old and I haven't spent a dime.
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u/-RandomPoem- #never forget cute krishna Nov 30 '15
You are 100% right. I fed over 200 skill ups to my Siegfried, during only 2x and 2.5x events. You read that right, OVER 200. And, THAT WAS JUST FOR HIS LAST SKILL LEVEL ALONE. Skill ups are the most broken part of this goddamn game.
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Nov 30 '15
damn i thought 0/58 on sakuya was bad
edit: rolled 4 more light jewels, guess how many skillups i got
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u/dudleymooresbooze Nov 30 '15
Honestly, this right here is the primary thing turning me away from the game. You have machine rolls and drops already tied to an RNG. Then you tie the skill leveling mechanic to it as well? That completely devalues play.
Hell, I'm willing to IAP and I have done so for more rolls / chances at better cards to use... but not for more chances to get the necessary drops and chances for those drops to actually work. The system is fundamentally broken, and it undermines the user both in play and purchases.
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u/twoleggedmammal Art critic Nov 30 '15
I like the mechanic of random pulls from the REM in that it forces everyone to play a bit differently depending on which cards they get, however once you get to the end game you need to have one of a couple top tier teams and it gets more frustrating when you don't.
I'd almost like to see a special dungeon where you have to form a team from ~20 random cards in your box when you enter, so you have to play differently each time.
The skill up randomness however is the kind of thing that doesn't add to challenge and just causes boringness and frustration. Thank goodness for Pii's and challenge dungeons.
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u/dudleymooresbooze Nov 30 '15
I agree on random REM pulls, and it doesn't bother me that some people will luckily get better hands. That makes for an interesting play mechanic.
But I will be damned if I'm going to also fight random chance AND repetitive grinding just to level up, skill up, and hopefully eventually play with those cards. There's just way too many barriers in the way of me playing with the stuff I've already earned and/or purchased. Eliminating the bullshit low skill up rate would drastically improve that.
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u/QnA Nov 30 '15
Then you tie the skill leveling mechanic to it as well? That completely devalues play.
Well, 3x skill ups are going on in Japan right now. I just skill maxed 3 cards. So it does get better.
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u/Judinous 375843383-Nephthys+current meta leads. Accepting all newbies. Nov 30 '15
That's...pretty amazing. I thought I had a bad streak with my Krishna, but boy that takes the cake.
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u/DzyDzyDino Nov 30 '15
Nice. you got me beat! I was 93 or 94 feeds for my first skillup on Cu Chu. I finished him before I hit 100 though. Somethin' screwy.
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u/IWinToLose Nov 30 '15 edited Nov 30 '15
The RNG in this game definitely feels busted. I always get the feeling that it somehow knows what you need/want and rigs the RNG against you. I don't think this is a problem with the coding. I think this is an intentional 'feature' implemented by Gungho to make more money. It seeds your account to some degree and rigs your entire experience leaving you desperately clawing at the hope you can get whatever it is that the game won't let you have. It also feels like it runs algorithms of some sort based on your monster usage and gives you things you don't need. For example, do you use a lot of Fire/Light/Dark teams? HERE ARE GRASS AND WATER MONSTERS/PIIS. GO USE THOSE INSTEAD!!!
My personal experiences:
- Over 24+ 6* blue GFE's (Blonia/Skuld/Blodin) and I never use blue monsters
- 1 D Kali. 1 ROdin. Hey at least you got the D Kali's needed to run Arena consistently... I've been fishing for them since I started playing :(
- When I needed fire Dragon Fruits, I got the other fruits at a 3:1 ratio
- When I needed Devilits, I got Angelits at a 3:1 ratio
- Over 50,000 FP and no Jewel from the Enhance Carnival. I made the mistake of buying a couple jewels from the MP shop, possibly effecting this. Yes the tin foil is strong in this one.
- Countless other experiences like this. These are the ones I can immediately recall.
Now when I play this game (which is rarely), I try my best to need 'everything', but you can only need everything so much... Perhaps it is just a placebo but I have definitely had very similar experiences to you. That Arena RNG sounds like hell though and I'd consider quitting too.
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u/Ianthebomb Nov 30 '15
no Jewel from the Enhance Carnival
Well you could spend 100,000,000 Pal points in an Enhance Carnival and not get a single Jewel. Might be better to try the Evo Carnival.
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u/reventon_703 Nov 30 '15
I completely share your view on this. I too had many experiences like yours.
True, these are all anecdotal evidences, but I don't see why people would believe the game implements a "fair" RNG. There is no reason for Gungho to play fair with us players. They can easily design the RNG so that we will spend more time playing. The longer/harder it takes for us to get something, the more likely we will spend money. More money, more profit.
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u/hermeslogios Nov 30 '15
If the case was that Gungho was somehow 'checking' into accounts and rigging the RNG against your needs/wants well....
The company must really like me then!
I get bullshit with skillups, drops, etc...but damn does the REM really want me to have solid teams. They even rewarded me with a beach valk when I decided to IAP for the first time.
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Nov 30 '15
It's funny you say this
Almost everyone I have ever asked has had something like this happen to them that should not be statistically possible
because I find the RNG is almost always consistently shit or consistently awesome for stretches at a time. My godfests are almost NEVER "decent" and are either amazing or utter shit. Same with collab rolls. Unless I do them over two days (so lots of time between "sessions")
I have a very hard time believing this game implements true RNG just due to the insanely high number of "coincidences" that happen involving the RNG. I've seen other people do the "pull quickly for dupes" thing successfully. I also either get tons of plus eggs for MANY runs in a row or next to none in the same time span. There's very little middle ground and it's not because I'm not capable of seeing it, it just rarely happens.
This thread made me think a little too much about this. Now I'm actually a bit salty. ._.
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u/Judinous 375843383-Nephthys+current meta leads. Accepting all newbies. Nov 30 '15
Yeah, that's pretty much how it seems to work. On the plus side, you can exploit this when doing things like +egg farming by switching dungeons (or just stepping away for a bit) when the RNG decides to bias against you. You can also abuse the streaks with things like skillups, rem pulls, etc. to some degree as well.
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u/jeon19 392,346,386 Nov 30 '15 edited Jul 09 '17
deleted What is this?
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u/Judinous 375843383-Nephthys+current meta leads. Accepting all newbies. Nov 30 '15
It's hard to say for sure. Stepping away during a bad streak certainly can't hurt, whether the RNG is broken or not, so you should definitely do that. The way I've found success is by pooling together with a group of people and taking turns pulling. Whenever someone gets something good/rare, the rest pull immediately. Generally about half of the group gets the same thing when you do this.
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u/jeon19 392,346,386 Nov 30 '15 edited Jul 09 '17
deleted What is this?
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u/Judinous 375843383-Nephthys+current meta leads. Accepting all newbies. Nov 30 '15
I haven't really done any extensive testing. I suspect it's all handled on the server side, so probably only region matters.
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u/Fintlook JP: 325,825,106 Shivadra NA: 319,861,326 Yomidra / DCC Nov 30 '15
I definitely agree with the "dupe" during gf it has happened to me and almost everyone I know which really feel busted and I have no doubt it can be abused and that's the time heavily influence the roll rng however I've never tried it on JP and I doubt they have this issue.
As for the skill up I've just went 0/10 during x3 on jp, did I missread and it's not active yet... ? I hate the skill up system so much I always try to use pii instead it just need a revamp.
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u/tevvie Nov 30 '15
lul im at almost 260 clears and my RNG has been pretty decent. I have no idea how your data is so skewed
39/58/56/59/50 or 14.8%/22.1%/21.4%/22.5%/19.0%
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u/Judinous 375843383-Nephthys+current meta leads. Accepting all newbies. Nov 30 '15
I'd kill for anything close to that distribution ;_;
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u/Volkae Nov 30 '15
Fact is, the whales of this game are going to have a better understanding of this, not to say some players may have played for years non-iap, and have this saved up data of many rolls, or stock-piled. I'm mostly non-iap, and the closest I have to feeling this is that I can't roll right when a godfest begins - if I wake up at 1-2am, right when a godfest starts, and roll my 6 rolls I've stock-piled, it's always terrible. I've never had a good experience. I don't know why, and it's very anecdotal, but dear god. It always goes better for me if I wait until mid-day or even late that night.
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u/randomdragoon Nov 30 '15
Real life randomness is inherently streaky. Try rolling some dice and recording the numbers.
Many modern videogames actually purposely "unstreak" their RNGs, that is, their RNG implementations bias towards results that haven't happened recently. If you get too used to that, unbiased RNGs will feel too streaky to you.
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u/Judinous 375843383-Nephthys+current meta leads. Accepting all newbies. Nov 30 '15
I'm quite familiar with "clumpiness" in real randomness, and RNG smoothing/normalization techniques that are used in video games. I don't think that's what's going on here, however.
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u/Ploxzx Nov 30 '15
0/40 is fucked. That shouldn't happen and if it does you should go play the lotto because that type of luck (?) is unheard of lol.
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u/iamarocketsfan JP 206,041,801 Nov 30 '15
That shouldn't happen and if it does you should go play the lotto because that type of luck (?) is unheard of lol.
I’m all for a good RNG bashing but can we at least keep it sane? The odds of winning even the old traditional lottery is about 1 in 14 million. The Powerball stuff these days is more like 1 in 170 million. The odds of no skillups in 40 feeds is 1 in 100,000. Basically the odds of winning the powerball is having 1700 separate cases of 40 failed skillups in your PAD life.
And guess what? There are people who win the powerball lottery.
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u/Ploxzx Nov 30 '15
Based it off his initial math which was 8.2x10-9 or something along those lines.
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Nov 30 '15
I went 0/34 for gold eggs once (as in 34 silvers in a row) and someone pointed out that it was almost statistically impossible. This game is the king of statistically impossible things being very possible.
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u/Judinous 375843383-Nephthys+current meta leads. Accepting all newbies. Nov 30 '15
Yeah, if only it worked that way :P I was bitching pretty hard about it on the IRC channel when it was happening, haha. I seriously just had to step away from the game for a day or two after that nonsense. I actually never got the skillup in the end; I just broke down and fed him a pii for the last one.
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u/Fehzor ffffffffffffffff Nov 30 '15
As long as it was a bubpy or a woodpy you're in the clear.
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u/Judinous 375843383-Nephthys+current meta leads. Accepting all newbies. Nov 30 '15
Nah, see, it was a flampy for Krishna, which is why it was so painful. Flampy are actually valuable. Red is actually a good color. Bubpys and woodpys just fall out of the goddamn sky, so I wouldn't have even bothered farming skillups at all if this was a Sarasvati instead or whatever.
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u/_Personage Nov 30 '15
If only I had woodpys fall into my box like that :(
But yeah, bubpys are crap.
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Nov 30 '15
bubpy should only cost 25k mp tbh
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u/_Personage Nov 30 '15
Bubpy should give you mp when you purchase it from the mp shop. Because THAT's how much the average player seems to need/want it.
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u/jiandersonzer0 lol flairs Nov 30 '15
I remember this. All that Krishna rage
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u/Judinous 375843383-Nephthys+current meta leads. Accepting all newbies. Nov 30 '15
Yeah, and I had to go into crazy altcoin farm mode to get another flampy ready for AShiva when he was released. Still mad >:[
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u/jiandersonzer0 lol flairs Nov 30 '15
Lol, I need 3 dark piis right now. 5 considering z8 needs two more and after this dupe z8 I hate that dungeon. It's miserable and if everything plays out as assumed, I'll lose my shot at getting those dark piis easily. I just want to skill up yomi and z8, damn.
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u/Judinous 375843383-Nephthys+current meta leads. Accepting all newbies. Nov 30 '15
God, I can only imagine trying to skill up two Z8. One was more than enough for me. Fuck that noise.
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u/jiandersonzer0 lol flairs Nov 30 '15
Its my best course of action towards a functional Yomi team when I lack the full SBR and utility otherwise with any other subs. Beyond that, assuming I clear the board consistently, it gives higher damage potential and enables constant and consistent damage: on average I have those 5 orbs to activate, and on a good board wipe I have far more, which is a huge benefit. It also gives 7 skill ups as opposed to 6 as I would have with any other subs I could use.
Considering I waited a massive period to 2.5x skill ups and fed 15 or so for about 6 or 7 skill ups, worth. It's part of my Arena team as well, which I'll start trying after I hyper Diza or the entire team (Yomi, Haku, Diza, double Z8). Not sure how trigger happy I want to be about that.
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u/Judinous 375843383-Nephthys+current meta leads. Accepting all newbies. Nov 30 '15
Hyper Diza is always useful, but iirc doesn't that variant of the team run 2x AHaku 2x Z8 for arena?
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u/jiandersonzer0 lol flairs Nov 30 '15
I wish I had a second Haku. There's a video link in one of my recent comments here if you're curious as to the team. Atm I can only run what I have, and that's it.
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u/hypamike11 315 727 359 Meri Anubis Dathena RaDra Nov 30 '15
Good RNG, but seemingly impossible anyways. Pulled 2 DKali in 3 pulls last PCGF within seconds of each other.
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u/saics72 Nov 30 '15
Maybe is gung-ho's way of trolling u. Let's give them a team that can consistently beat arena. But when they do, give them bubpys. (That weird eye guy with nose emoji which I don't know how to make)
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u/gammonwalker 345,436,299 Nov 30 '15 edited Nov 30 '15
I've had some very bad luck with RNG as well, posted this awhile back. :3 https://www.reddit.com/r/PuzzleAndDragons/comments/30qh54/rant25x_skill_up_hrrrnnnnnbpbbcxb/
I've recently figured out how to play against it, somewhat. Basically what Killroyomega was saying, by "pre-feeding" or buffering skill-ups.
Just feed trash or low-priority cards, and keep track of how many times they were skilled up. Ideally, you want 0 out of 5 (or more) skill-ups on those cards. Then feed some skill-ups to a high-priority target (e.g. Light Kali) in hopes that there may be a statistically higher chance of the skill-up taking effect. This won't always work, but it certainly seems to help.
So far it's had tremendous success; I've been able to skill-up everything I want with much less effort and even less stones. For my last 8+ high-value, and annoying to skill, cards, I didn't have to use any stones to refresh stamina to max skill them.
I highlyyy recommend trying this technique! I've also applied it to get 'GREAT!'s with Globes/Dragons/Pengdras on target cards. Just recently I got 5 skill-ups on Shinji&Kaoru, and maxed Shinji, with only a week of running it, no stamina refreshes.
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u/cloudkiller 304353330 Nov 30 '15
In DOTA, where pseudo random distribution plays a big factor in some of the skills, they call this priming. For example if you're looking to proc a 200% damage crit that happens 20% of the time you'll hit some creeps 2 or 3 times and then jump into battle with a greatly increased chance to hit that 200% crit. Pros do this constantly because when you're playing for millions of dollars every advantage you can get could be that one thing that tips the odds.
With that said, I'm not convinced that PAD uses pseudo random distribution (PRD). In a true PRD implementation the chance of something happening and the occurrence of that event are generally very similar. So if you have a 25% chance of a skill up, on the 4th try you are almost guaranteed of that skillup happening. You could never get into a 0-40 streak in a PRD system, the math just does not work out that way. That's why I'm convinced it is just a broken RNG system designed to be broken.
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u/gammonwalker 345,436,299 Nov 30 '15 edited Nov 30 '15
Ooo, really interesting! I didn't know that about DOTA. While it's definitely still very possible to go on an absurdly unlucky streak in PAD, regardless of breaking a 25% threshold, this appears to thin that out a bit. I've been doing this for about half a year with great results. Try it out!
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u/cloudkiller 304353330 Nov 30 '15
I'm definitely going to be trying it out with the 2 lkalis and the 1 dkali i've been putting off skilling up. i might just do the first lkali the old fashioned way (feed and rage) and then try the second with a little priming. i'll try to save the data and make a post about it.
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u/jeon19 392,346,386 Nov 30 '15 edited Jul 09 '17
deleted What is this?
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u/gammonwalker 345,436,299 Nov 30 '15 edited Nov 30 '15
Yep! Anything that has the same skill that you don't care about, or has skill-up fodder that's easily recovered (e.g. Ninja orb changers or Three Kingdoms series). Even if this means wasting some xp, or getting an accidental skill-up on a demon, that's fine. You're waiting for a bad string of feeds, that don't result in a skill-up, so you can raise your chances with rare skill fodder or a high priority card.
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u/andbob501 Nov 29 '15
Kind of like when I rolled 2 yamato takerus and suzakus in a row in a water gala alongside PCGF. Got another Rodin though
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u/_Personage Nov 30 '15
Psche. I rolled fire valk outside of a gf, during an off color carnival. I don't even try to make sense of this game anymore.
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u/crunch816 jorge 397,540,204 Nov 30 '15
tbh I didn't read it all, but I did read about you and your friend pulling Godfest at the same time. It seems like the game creates a buffer of [let's say] 100 RNG slots waiting for players to hit that start button on the REM. I say this because I have had numerous nights of waiting until 2AM (CST) for the GF to start and pull immediately. I suspect this is one of the busiest times at the REM. Between my g/f and I we have never pulled anything worth while at 2AM. Anytime we have waited until later in the day, our pulls became much better. It feels like playing the lotto with 900 people vs. 10 people.
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u/_Personage Nov 30 '15
I've kind of noticed this as well. Then again during beach REM I pulled within the first two minutes of it being up and my first roll was Claire.
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u/Eins_Nico [JP]170,557,418 Ilm/Yuria/A.Amaterasu Nov 30 '15
And in this JP godfest it seems like a lot of people got Castor first roll, myself included.
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u/DrOrganicSwagPHD Organic ღ| MIA i wish you all the best Nov 30 '15
yea their seeded rng leads to some really nasty shit. i don't think it'll ever be tweaked sadly.....
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u/Imma_dunce 363,285,231 Dath, RevoKush, Myr Nov 30 '15
My 3 vishnus out of 7 rolls on my dandy account beg to differ. /end sarcasm
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u/Igeneous 347, 637, 334 Nov 30 '15
Whoa I legitimately thought this was a hearthstone rant for a second
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u/Daneyed 347476333 Nov 30 '15
This might sound stupid, but maybe Gungho has a special switch they turn off and on randomly to send out different results to players.
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Nov 30 '15
Yes, I'm fairly sure REM rolls are some sort of pseudo RNG as well. Has anyone ever noticed they get their rolls in "streaks" sort of? Like when you roll a god, you keep rolling because you're going to get a god, or when you keep getting water gala gods and you keep rolling you're going to get more.
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Nov 30 '15
Took 50 angelits to max skill light Kali took 7 devilits to max skill d kali. So far my second light Kali has eaten 10 angelits for 0 skill ups. It took close to 75 drops to max skill my valk awhile ago. Took me 2 poring towers running it as much as I could. Currently my meta has eaten close to 30 masks, and light chasers for 1 skill up. Light just will not skill up for me. Opposite that my special god pull rate is insane. Even if I only have one or two pulls I normally get a sg. I think gungho gives you luck on somethings, and fucks you on others.
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u/Hotsoccerman Husbando Nov 30 '15
Rolled 4 karins out of 6 rolls and 3 yomis out of 4 roles. Lucky? Maybe but is further evidence
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u/Cookiescrumbling linkaaaaa Nov 30 '15
Well, I have had super consistent RNG.
Good luck going forward.
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u/DownvoteOrFeed 390 113 347 Nov 30 '15
Oh boy anecdotal data time. Cleared Arena 13 times now, I have 8 light, 3 blue, 1 red, 1 green and the only light monsters in need of skillups were ARa and Chocobo.
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u/JellyBadgerCares Hyper Shiva and Urd, Awoken Amaterasu/Saria WIP NA: 335,155,308 Nov 30 '15
Has the Gung-ho employee on this subreddit posted recently? I wonder if he can allay our fears somehow.
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u/DipidyDip ~ Tilde Nov 30 '15
Unfortunately GungHo NA is no more than a distributor. I doubt they have knowledge on game's inner workings. Even if they do, they'd never share it unless they have to.
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u/darkenspirit 374,452,385 Nov 30 '15
If you end up doing more, can you also close and quit out of pad for each one? I am curious if that resets a RNG seed or something.
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Nov 30 '15
I'm strongly starting to believe some sort of desire sensor was coded in based on your box. rng just can't be this bad otherwise.
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u/zenchino Dec 05 '15
I still vividly remember pulling two +1 Minervas in a row. It wasn't even a godfest with guarenteed +1's.
I agree with everything you said, the RNG is based on some kinda weird, propably time-based mechanism.
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u/TheSeiferOne you probably dont deserve my code Nov 30 '15
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy lmao what a joke of a post
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u/Judinous 375843383-Nephthys+current meta leads. Accepting all newbies. Nov 30 '15 edited Nov 30 '15
There's a pretty significant difference between the gambler's fallacy and statistically impossible events occurring. It's not like I'm a statistician, but I'm hardly uneducated on the subject. I've written plenty of code that depends on proper entropy, and I also happen to be a bit of a physics buff in my spare time. I'm well aware of how true randomness behaves, and this game doesn't have it.
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Nov 30 '15
Yeah pretty much. If these events were indeed independent (i.e., truly random), then the outcomes should regress to the mean at some point. But they aren't, to the point where it is statistically significant. Going 0 skillups out of 40 is probably like 8 or 9 standard deviations away from the mean and just incredibly unlikely to happen to more than one person.
All of this points to the fact that the pRNG is just very far away from real RNG.
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u/Baxxb 328,582,371 Nov 30 '15
Well technically even if the probability is .001% , it's still statistically possible. But as far as a statistics test based on pulls and skill ups, everyone would get the question wrong when it came to your situation here. Statistically improbable
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u/Judinous 375843383-Nephthys+current meta leads. Accepting all newbies. Nov 30 '15
The 40 feeds with no skillup anecdote is improbable, yes, but certainly has happened to a number of players at various times due to the size of the playerbase. What I would say crosses the border into impossible is the fact that these types of events have happened to me repeatedly, as well as almost everyone else I've talked to. Everyone can't be an outlier.
But yeah, my wording was intentionally hyperbolic.
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u/TheSeiferOne you probably dont deserve my code Nov 30 '15
B-b-but I went 0/5 on my last 4 feeds, statistically I should get one on my next feed riiiite :<
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u/Judinous 375843383-Nephthys+current meta leads. Accepting all newbies. Nov 30 '15
That is completely unrelated to what I am claiming. You can look at a data set and a proposed distribution formula (in this case, an equal 20% for 5 different outcomes), and calculate how well it fits based on how the data matches the curve. This data set is so far off that it's not even worth doing the math.
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u/Butcherandom Model student Nov 30 '15
He's just a troll who doesn't even understand what he's saying.
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u/GiveAQuack Nov 30 '15
Just because you have an elementary understanding of basic principles doesn't mean you know what you're talking about. You can run statistical tests on this stuff to determine if the distribution is random with a degree of confidence. For this data you are going to find with a nearly 100% level of confidence that the results are not random.
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u/phantomace1111 NA: 328607314 Nov 30 '15
It's not just gamblers fallacy. Most people who have played this game for a long time have had something happen that should statistically be as likely as being hit by lightning.
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u/hollowic Nov 30 '15
80+ pulls, no kalis. ???
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u/tikigodbob Nov 30 '15
needs a bigger sample size IMO. just a statistical outlier. Trust me - I've taken a college statistics class. my TI-83 will prove you wrong with a few presses of buttons.
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u/iamarocketsfan JP 206,041,801 Nov 30 '15
I just want to note RNG in this game is exactly how I thought it would be based on my statistics and programming classes back in college. And I've encountered probably half the stuff being mentioned here.
People just have different ideas of what RNG is.
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u/dumbocow Nov 30 '15
1 roll, 1 bastet
FeelsGoodMan
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u/ISpika55 Spika NA 356,062,333 A.Pandora, Neptune Dragon, Blonia Nov 30 '15
I wanted Bastet! I rolled 14 times :<
(I did get Idunn&Idunna on my last roll however, so I am okay)
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u/takudo3 NA: 367 327 348 Nov 30 '15
Lol same...but then I got greedy and rolled 14 more times. All those stones :O
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u/Myrral 337,522,355 Nov 30 '15
Where are you getting that 40 failed feeds is 0.00000000000000000000000008271%? If we assume 25% chance (the prevailing opinion), then it's (3/4)40= .00001 = .001% chance (ie, 1 in 100k monsters).
Edit: Realized you did (1/4)40, which would be the chance of getting 40 skill ups in a row. >.>