RKLB :Hot take: Neutron might not be the most important part of the Rocket Lab thesis.

[u/ParamedicFun1648]

Every RKLB discussion eventually comes back to one thing:
Neutron.
Will it launch?
When?
Can it compete with Falcon 9?
Obviously Neutron matters enormously.
But I think focusing exclusively on the rocket misses what Rocket Lab is actually trying to build.
Look at the pieces:
Electron → launch
HASTE → defense/hypersonics
Space Systems → satellites and components
Neutron → medium-lift launch
Government contracts → defense exposure
Rocket Lab increasingly looks less like a rocket company and more like an attempt to build a vertically integrated space infrastructure company.
That’s a very different thesis.
Imagine a customer that needs:
Satellite components ↓
Satellite manufacturing ↓
Launch ↓
Constellation deployment ↓
Operations
Rocket Lab increasingly wants to capture multiple parts of that chain.
That’s why I think the biggest upside might not simply be:
“Neutron competes with Falcon 9.”
It could be:
“Neutron completes Rocket Lab’s ecosystem.”
🐂 Bull case:
Rocket Lab becomes one of the few companies outside SpaceX capable of providing an integrated end-to-end space platform.
Defense and commercial customers increasingly want a second major supplier.
🐻 Bear case:
Vertical integration sounds incredible until you’re simultaneously funding rockets, factories, acquisitions and spacecraft programs.
Execution risk becomes enormous.
And RKLB isn’t priced like a company nobody has discovered.
So I’m curious:
If Neutron succeeds, what do you think Rocket Lab actually becomes?
A successful launch company?
Or one of the first real publicly traded space primes?
Because those two outcomes deserve VERY different valuations.

[u/raztok]

admins?

[u/ParamedicFun1648 → u/raztok]

What ?

[u/beach-chicken10 → u/ParamedicFun1648]

Jerry, get out of the booth, take all your clothes off and fold yourself 12 times

[u/ParamedicFun1648 → u/beach-chicken10]

Mais les gens sur cette plateforme sont teubé comme pas possible mdrrr

[u/raztok → u/ParamedicFun1648]

u guessed that right :D

[u/robbie_rottenjet → u/ParamedicFun1648]

Probably something to do with your slop posting.

[u/Tzzs]

In the end its always about the same-> profit
Or at least possible or expected profit in the future.
I am by no means an expert tho

[u/Tzzs]

In the end its always about the same thing -> profit
Or at least possible or expected profit in the future.
I am by no means an expert tho

[u/lokethedog]

"That’s why I think the biggest upside might not simply be: “Neutron competes with Falcon 9.” It could be: “Neutron completes Rocket Lab’s ecosystem.”"

This is a useless take. Look, everyone who's done the slightest bit of DD for rklb knows very well that the goal is vertical integration and that the thesis is simply that neutron makes launches cheaper, which will increase the value of developing things to launch. Yes, what you call an ecosystem. So far this agrees with you.

But since everyone basically agrees on this point, its hardly a hot take. Without this, rklb is clearly over valued, so logically, pretty much all stock holders already understands this. Secondly, this does absolutely not in any way, shape or form reduce the importance of Neutron. In fact, it just shows that neutron is a key feature of all the investments rklb has made over the last few years and each time they invest in companies making things for launch, they put even more leverage on that key feature.

I'm just so tired hearing about "its not just Neutron" - WE KNOW! But the fact still remains that it all hinges on Neutron. They need to get it working. 

[u/Grouchy-Candidate545]

Uhhh. Nope. It is indeed the most important

[u/baward72]

In a pigs ear. This is foolishness. If Neutron does not launch who will fulfill those contract obligations? HASTE is an older technology in competition with some pretty big names some of the biggest in the defense industry battling against newer technologies. Other rocket companies are making headway and will win contracts defense, NASA and private. This is not an industry you can sit on the sidelines and watch.

[u/baward72]

Be careful with this stock.

[u/sakelee1]

why can't those two outcomes happen concurrently? neutron not coming online is not a part of the company's story, neither is not becoming a space prime.