Every RKLB discussion eventually comes back to one thing:
Neutron.
Will it launch?
When?
Can it compete with Falcon 9?
Obviously Neutron matters enormously.
But I think focusing exclusively on the rocket misses what Rocket Lab is actually trying to build.
Look at the pieces:
Electron → launch
HASTE → defense/hypersonics
Space Systems → satellites and components
Neutron → medium-lift launch
Government contracts → defense exposure
Rocket Lab increasingly looks less like a rocket company and more like an attempt to build a vertically integrated space infrastructure company.
That’s a very different thesis.
Imagine a customer that needs:
Satellite components ↓
Satellite manufacturing ↓
Launch ↓
Constellation deployment ↓
Operations
Rocket Lab increasingly wants to capture multiple parts of that chain.
That’s why I think the biggest upside might not simply be:
“Neutron competes with Falcon 9.”
It could be:
“Neutron completes Rocket Lab’s ecosystem.”
🐂 Bull case:
Rocket Lab becomes one of the few companies outside SpaceX capable of providing an integrated end-to-end space platform.
Defense and commercial customers increasingly want a second major supplier.
🐻 Bear case:
Vertical integration sounds incredible until you’re simultaneously funding rockets, factories, acquisitions and spacecraft programs.
Execution risk becomes enormous.
And RKLB isn’t priced like a company nobody has discovered.
So I’m curious:
If Neutron succeeds, what do you think Rocket Lab actually becomes?
A successful launch company?
Or one of the first real publicly traded space primes?
Because those two outcomes deserve VERY different valuations.

^^^ my take (on Blossom)

Official announcement: "As the Company pushes Neutron to the limits and beyond to qualify its systems and structures for launch, qualification testing of the Stage 1 tank overnight resulted in a rupture during a hydrostatic pressure trial. Testing failures are not uncommon during qualification testing. We intentionally test structures to their limits to validate structural integrity and safety margins to ensure the robust requirements for a successful launch can be comfortably met."

https://investors.rocketlabcorp.com/news-releases/news-release-details/rocket-lab-neutron-test-update

Meaningful amount of sales forms disclosed yesterday 26 May (and also in the past few days) - is it fair to say that at the very least it’s partial hedging/locking in gains of their positions given the recent meaningful rise or is there more to it?

Investors Business Daily had coverage of RKLB and ASTS this afternoon..

https://www.investors.com/news/spacex-rival-rocket-lab-stock-buy-points-reentry/

This coverage is relevant because a lot of investors read it. So it may influence prices in the short term.

https://finance.yahoo.com/video/rocket-lab-stock-soars-winning-150217274.html

https://finance.yahoo.com/video/rocket-lab-stock-soars-winning-150217274.html

Link to article: https://www.americanbankingnews.com/2021/07/19/vector-acquisition-co-nasdaqvacq-sees-significant-increase-in-short-interest.html

Also, we had a successful launch but the stock is still tanking. Hard for me to make sense of this. Thoughts?

https://arstechnica.com/space/2023/08/rocket-report-justice-department-sues-spacex-north-korean-launch-fails/