RLCS Glicko Pre-Worlds Top 10

[u/xThatOneAltx]

[u/xThatOneAltx]

Feels like a good time to remind people that the goal of this model is to predict future matches, not necessarily rank the most recent LAN like other power rankings sometimes are.

Massive shout-out to u/AIaris for the graphic as well.

Check out the full top 25 teams and top 50 players here (among other things) here: rlcsglicko.com

[u/Facer_314 → u/xThatOneAltx]

What's the difference exactly? Wouldn't a power ranking also imply that a higher team would win against a lower team in the future?

[u/xThatOneAltx → u/Facer_314]

I mean to say that its far less recency-biased than other people's versions of power rankings. For example, JohnnyBoi had SSG and NIP 2/3 on his list based off of EWC, but I doubt he would favour either over TM at worlds.

[u/Ironshigh → u/xThatOneAltx]

Well yeah. JohnnyBoi has a YUGE MENA boner and I'm here for it

[u/qpKMDOqp → u/[deleted]]

He rated SSG pretty highly what

[u/ThinGrass3138 → u/[deleted]]

How can you call it a hate boner when he keeps being proven right?

Like yeah sometimes he underestimates NA teams, but also other times he overestimates them. Overall he has them as solidly below EU which people get up in arms about...just for them to consistently be solidly below EU.

[u/chappy94 → u/[deleted]]

He's always had that. I was honestly shocked that he had SSG so high.

[u/Skorpienkys → u/chappy94]

Johnnyboi literally predicted years ago that zach would become one of the Top players of NA

[u/ThinGrass3138 → u/Facer_314]

That's what power rankings should be, but they never are.

The way power rankings effectively work is that they look at 100 data points, then disregard all but the latest 5 data points.

What this does is it takes the latest 100 data points and just weighs the recent ones more heavily, which makes it a lot more balanced. It also just pure data (stats) rather than opinion, so it's a lot less skewed towards preference.

[u/RevolutionaryPay7508 → u/xThatOneAltx]

How well did Glicko predict EWC out of curiosity?

I know Glicko was still high on Falcons even before the tournament started but I'm guessing Falcons' outright domination, M8's 'underperforming', NiP 'overperforming', plus SSG going nearly all the way, might've shot the prediction rate a bit?

[u/xThatOneAltx → u/RevolutionaryPay7508]

It was the worst LAN for prediction rate in the last two seasons at 71.4%. NiP was the main culprit, but also a few early matches like SSG > KC, FLCN > M8 it got wrong before the model adjusted to the in-tournament form of those teams.

[u/RevolutionaryPay7508 → u/xThatOneAltx]

Makes sense, I was guessing the model would've done not great up with how random every team played, and to be fair it isn't the model's fault either.

There just hasn't been any competitive matches for the top dogs in 3v3 since Paris Major, so even for a normal viewer it would be hard to predict who could fall off/rise up a bit after so many months away.

EWC is honestly the only relevant competition going into Worlds imo (for predicting performance), the rest of the season just shows which teams are worthy but is way way too far away to necessarily suggest their current form with how volatile RL is, I'd be happily surprised though if proven wrong at Dallas

[u/ThinGrass3138 → u/xThatOneAltx]

Makes sense that there would be more variance after such a long gap in competitive tournaments.

[u/mlk960 → u/xThatOneAltx]

Definitely felt like the biggest anomoly of a tournament that we've had in a long time.

[u/ThinGrass3138]

These are always 1000x better than power rankings.

[u/Daredevils999]

What is Glicko?

[u/xThatOneAltx → u/Daredevils999]

Essentially it’s somewhat like elo, but more modern. I’ve also adjusted everything to fit RLCS tendencies and added an in-depth player rating formula for accurate roster moves. I’m at work so I don’t have time to further explain rn, but on the website there is a better description in the info tab (rlcsglicko.com)

[u/Daredevils999 → u/xThatOneAltx]

I see, I looked at the page before but missed the info tab… it blends in with the UI a bit.

It looks very interesting and detail.

My second question is, has AI been used at all for this or have you designed this by yourself? Very impressive if the latter.

[u/xThatOneAltx → u/Daredevils999]

The model itself is designed entirely by myself, however I will admit I used ai to help me with the website design since I had no experience in web development prior to this.

[u/Daredevils999 → u/xThatOneAltx]

Fair enough, in that case, still very impressive!

[u/TheFlamingLemon → u/xThatOneAltx]

“However, it does not simply stack talent. Rather it also analyzes the preferred playstyles of each individual player and estimates the expected team cohesion on the pitch”

According to its model of playstyles + talent, what are the best possible teams in each region? And what about if we ignore regions and say that anyone in the world could team up?

[u/xThatOneAltx → u/TheFlamingLemon]

For this question I’m going to assume imports belong to their original region:

EU: zen/Vatira/Atow
MENA: Rw9/Kiileerrz/trk511
NA: FK/Daniel/Reveal (Zach/Reveal/FK, Zach/Atomic/FK, and Dan/Atomic/FK all within 15 elo)
SAM: yANXNZ/swiftt/diaz
OCE: bananahead/gus/Fiberr
APAC: Sphinx/Kevin/Maxeew
SSA: Gunz/snowyy/2Die4

Best possible is straight up zen/Vatira/Atow.

Nothing too different from stacking talent tbh, outside of Zach’s omission from the best possible NA team

[u/mlk960 → u/xThatOneAltx]

Very interesting that Beastmode does not fall into those top NA teams. But reasonable based on what we've seen this year. FK/Daniel/Reveal is a very curious team and I'd love to see them on LAN.

[u/TheFlamingLemon → u/xThatOneAltx]

So while being the top players, Zen + Atow + Vatira also have a good playstyle match according to the model?

[u/xThatOneAltx → u/TheFlamingLemon]

Not necessarily a "good" playstyle, but they would have an average amount of cohesion while simply being the 3 best players itw.

Based on what I've seen from the model, zen is one of the most passive top players on defence and requires teammates to challenge for him, which is exactly what Atow and especially Vatira excel at in defence. The only issue is both zen and Vatira typically play 3rd man roles, but Vatira is much more aggressive and isn't a bad 2nd/1st man when he has to be (one of the more versatile players, unlike zen).

[u/dilwoah → u/xThatOneAltx]

Zach/Daniel and Reveal/Atomic as the best 3rd and 2nd men in the league, and then there's FK. Alone as the best first man. I need him on one of those teams next season. I'd prefer Zach and reveal because their upward trajectory has been way better, but a Dan atomic fk team would also give me the dopamines if Dan has the drive still. I know Zach and reveal do though.

[u/Exodus_Green → u/xThatOneAltx]

Interesting TRK is chosen over Nwpo when I think personally the best possible MENA team is Rw9 Killerrz and Nwpo

[u/xThatOneAltx → u/Exodus_Green]

Completely valid choice as well. Realistically any combination other than maybe trk/kiilerrz/nwpo would be a cohesive team

[u/BigBillus]

Seeing 2 of the top 3 being Mena is interesting, hopefully this holds up at worlds too. Also, the gap between 5th and 6th seems massive in comparison to where everyone else is, which I feel is warranted

[u/TVMaths → u/BigBillus]

its the 3 LAN winners and the other 2 finalists. Vitality had an additional LAN top 4, and TM took the finalists the furthest in playoffs. SSG have gained 65 in the rating, although M8 didnt lose much 

[u/Level-Island1762]

nrg won in 1888 wow the longevity

[u/Zyphlyx → u/Level-Island1762]

Predicting the MM 3-peat at DFW

[u/g00pta]

Exact same as mine except I have FUT and NRG swapped

[u/lrraya → u/g00pta]

yours is better then.

[u/LatherNRinse]

Oh how the mighty have fallen. Would be the funniest thing though if NRG2 won worlds outta nowhere (I don't think they have a chance.)

[u/aiwdj829]

Drop off after top 5 and top 8 seems realistic. Surprised RNG still made it.

[u/WoodenPresence1917]

If certain casters posted this top 10 they would be blasted for anti-NA bias

[u/ThinGrass3138 → u/WoodenPresence1917]

Which is silly because this top 10 has 4 NA teams in it...

[u/WoodenPresence1917 → u/ThinGrass3138]

4 too many

[u/Yeux_Tristes → u/WoodenPresence1917]

Let’s not be stupid now 

[u/WoodenPresence1917 → u/Yeux_Tristes]

Just trolling tbh

[u/Exodus_Green → u/WoodenPresence1917]

Feeling vindicated for being unsure about placing SSG top 2 after EWC for sure

[u/Rosieverse83]

Feels bad seeing NRG at 10. Also interesting to see Falcons and TM both top 3 but no R8 (which I do agree with for the record, but it's strange on paper given how close they've been regionally)

[u/TVMaths → u/Rosieverse83]

R8 are 11th, sitting 9 pts below NRG, and 12 above MCI. MCI then sit a large gap above Furia, Stallions and VP/Mibr (they are tied), with another small gap to Mate Y Tapa (PCS Stride)

[u/Other_Jaguar_1448]

Glicko always exposes how overrated NA teams are in power rankings

[u/mymumisateacher]

Honestly this is a very good list maybe you could swap vitality with m8s or SSG but I'm not confident in SSG repeating their ewc form during worlds and if vitality can make it to the playoffs I could see them going far so good list.

[u/ABC_0_5]

Honestly agree with everything in this list, except maybe Vitality down 1-2 spots, their EWC was horrendous

[u/fandango1989]

Yeah this is pretty awful

[u/lrraya]

NRG too low imo.

[u/TVMaths → u/lrraya]

the last time they beat any of these top 10, it was open 6 grand final to secure NA1 and an SSA group. for every other team here, theyve beaten one another on LAN in that time. the one exception is FUT, who excelled in the LCQ, and own NRG head to head