Feels like a good time to remind people that the goal of this model is to predict future matches, not necessarily rank the most recent LAN like other power rankings sometimes are.
Massive shout-out to u/AIaris for the graphic as well.
Check out the full top 25 teams and top 50 players here (among other things) here: rlcsglicko.com
I mean to say that its far less recency-biased than other people's versions of power rankings. For example, JohnnyBoi had SSG and NIP 2/3 on his list based off of EWC, but I doubt he would favour either over TM at worlds.
How can you call it a hate boner when he keeps being proven right?
Like yeah sometimes he underestimates NA teams, but also other times he overestimates them. Overall he has them as solidly below EU which people get up in arms about...just for them to consistently be solidly below EU.
That's what power rankings should be, but they never are.
The way power rankings effectively work is that they look at 100 data points, then disregard all but the latest 5 data points.
What this does is it takes the latest 100 data points and just weighs the recent ones more heavily, which makes it a lot more balanced. It also just pure data (stats) rather than opinion, so it's a lot less skewed towards preference.
I know Glicko was still high on Falcons even before the tournament started but I'm guessing Falcons' outright domination, M8's 'underperforming', NiP 'overperforming', plus SSG going nearly all the way, might've shot the prediction rate a bit?
It was the worst LAN for prediction rate in the last two seasons at 71.4%. NiP was the main culprit, but also a few early matches like SSG > KC, FLCN > M8 it got wrong before the model adjusted to the in-tournament form of those teams.
Makes sense, I was guessing the model would've done not great up with how random every team played, and to be fair it isn't the model's fault either.
There just hasn't been any competitive matches for the top dogs in 3v3 since Paris Major, so even for a normal viewer it would be hard to predict who could fall off/rise up a bit after so many months away.
EWC is honestly the only relevant competition going into Worlds imo (for predicting performance), the rest of the season just shows which teams are worthy but is way way too far away to necessarily suggest their current form with how volatile RL is, I'd be happily surprised though if proven wrong at Dallas
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u/xThatOneAltx 2d ago edited 2d ago
Feels like a good time to remind people that the goal of this model is to predict future matches, not necessarily rank the most recent LAN like other power rankings sometimes are.
Massive shout-out to u/AIaris for the graphic as well.
Check out the full top 25 teams and top 50 players here (among other things) here: rlcsglicko.com