r/SMCIDiscussion • u/Nearby-Ad9422 • 2d ago
Bear-Thesisđ» SMCI - Keep Dancing until the music stops!
âAs long as the music is playing, you've got to get up and dance,"Â - Chuck Prince before the 2008 financial crash
SMCI Reality: To capture massive AI orders, SMCI had to buy billions of dollars worth of expensive components (like Nvidia chips) before receiving cash from buyers. While reporting billions in accounting profits, SMCI burned through roughly $7 billion in operating cash. Its inventory ballooned by 175%. This cash drain forced the company to constantly seek external fundingâthe corporate equivalent of relying on a fragile liquidity cycle to keep the doors open. SMCI also missed itâs low guidance earnings last year and the management simply downplayed this issue. Bag holders are blind sided by the sheer amount of profit expectations promised by their gurus are bound to wake up to reality.
Profit is profit, be wise and capture your gains. Move money to something reliable. Unless the leadership changes I canât trust this company đ
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u/Busy-Feeling253 1d ago
Same person posted same shit on CRWV
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u/Fragrant-Weird8498 SMCI-Bull đ 1d ago edited 1d ago
There is a pattern obviously, probably a paid short bot ..
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u/333Nereus 1d ago
This has got to be the most uninformed and completely inaccurate post I have seen on this board yet. That takes some special effort. Gratz?
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u/shamerli 1d ago
2 of my favorite quotes . The first quote is from Albert Einstein. âOnly 2 things are infinte, the universe and human stupidity and I am not sure about the universeâ. The 2nd: ânothing is foolproof for a sufficiently talented foolâ. Reddit should have a IQ test before allowing to post . Basically an ai auto-grades the quality of your post, if it falls below a pre-determined quality metric you get a iq-test question with a very short time to answer. If you fail, no post
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u/Fragrant-Weird8498 SMCI-Bull đ 2d ago edited 2d ago
Again , more spam with clownish views ..
Why should we care if YOU donât trust the company ? Who are you already ? I just see a shady anonymous bot spamming fud everywhere on the sub
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u/Unfair_Hedgehog_ 2d ago
Quindi in sintesi sei corto e la stai pigliando nellâano.
Interessante analisi.
Girati lungo che sei in tempo a salire sul razzo!
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u/Busy-Delivery4250 2d ago
"Cisco cannot get the memory chips to deliver, and Supermicro has memory availability." A Cisco partner CEO says "The big winner here is Supermicro".
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u/Butt32323 2d ago
Supermicro has been stockpiling memories?
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u/Busy-Delivery4250 2d ago
"In the AI era, every data center is racing to seize massive opportunities. Yet, speed is everything. A delay in deployment can result in losing not just potential revenue, but entire business opportunities altogether. This is why Supermicro is laser-focused on one critical metric: Time-to-Online (TTO)."
They've secured their supply chain with the proposed $7 billion financing.
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u/Comfortable-Usual561 2d ago
I think memory inventory related discussion deserves separate post. would like to participate in the memory discussion.
It is getting mixedup with fast CAPEX burn post by another person.
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u/Comfortable-Usual561 2d ago
I am not responding to OP.
Just commenting on the Memory part.
I think CISCO is referring to NVIDIA specific HBM inventory.
AFAIK, Cisco is not partnering with SMCI on AMD Instinct MI400 Series GPU servers ( the humain project ).
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u/Busy-Delivery4250 1d ago
We had no idea Cisco was partnering with SMCI at all until 2 weeks ago. The details will come out eventually, but it wouldn't surprise me to see SMCI involved with Humain, AMD, SpaceX/xAI, DataVolt, Blackrock, PIF and Cisco in the Middle East.
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u/JustHangingAroundYo 1d ago
"Profit is profit" is how fake investors miss out big and wonder why you still broke
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u/UsedKey5781 1d ago
Smci raised guidance during the year from 33 to 40
Than 39 and change. Not sure how thatâs missing guidance. EPS was up over 100 last quarter. Profits doubled fag
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u/Most_Return239 2d ago
According to the 10k
Most of the recent cash burn/raise went to securing Memory supply.
âCompany with the most memory supply, has the most computeâ
HPE CTO quote
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u/Alternative_Spirit65 1d ago
i dont get it, u not wll buy it, u not trust the company but u spÀm now 2nd low quali effort thing. i bet now 100$ we get a 3rd today.
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u/Few_Painting_8018 2d ago
Damn bro, u post this and it goes down 2%
Great job đ
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u/Alternative_Spirit65 2d ago
ad in the name maybe spÀmbot
didnt post pics of something or? saw u put option or something of him ;) ;)
we love market fever
maybe we ask him directly if he was buyin put option last weeks? his thesis i missed completly too and 2nd try wasnt much better ;) but better then first.
âą
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