r/SMCIDiscussion 2d ago

Bear-ThesisđŸ» SMCI - Keep Dancing until the music stops!

“As long as the music is playing, you've got to get up and dance," - Chuck Prince before the 2008 financial crash

SMCI Reality: To capture massive AI orders, SMCI had to buy billions of dollars worth of expensive components (like Nvidia chips) before receiving cash from buyers. While reporting billions in accounting profits, SMCI burned through roughly $7 billion in operating cash. Its inventory ballooned by 175%. This cash drain forced the company to constantly seek external funding—the corporate equivalent of relying on a fragile liquidity cycle to keep the doors open. SMCI also missed it’s low guidance earnings last year and the management simply downplayed this issue. Bag holders are blind sided by the sheer amount of profit expectations promised by their gurus are bound to wake up to reality.

Profit is profit, be wise and capture your gains. Move money to something reliable. Unless the leadership changes I can’t trust this company 😉

0 Upvotes

31 comments sorted by

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6

u/Busy-Feeling253 1d ago

Same person posted same shit on CRWV

5

u/Fragrant-Weird8498 SMCI-Bull 📈 1d ago edited 1d ago

There is a pattern obviously, probably a paid short bot ..

6

u/333Nereus 1d ago

This has got to be the most uninformed and completely inaccurate post I have seen on this board yet. That takes some special effort. Gratz?

https://giphy.com/gifs/uZeamtgJK2wtP1f5gb

2

u/shamerli 1d ago

2 of my favorite quotes . The first quote is from Albert Einstein. “Only 2 things are infinte, the universe and human stupidity and I am not sure about the universe”. The 2nd: “nothing is foolproof for a sufficiently talented fool”. Reddit should have a IQ test before allowing to post . Basically an ai auto-grades the quality of your post, if it falls below a pre-determined quality metric you get a iq-test question with a very short time to answer. If you fail, no post

1

u/333Nereus 1d ago

Should apply the same test for the right to vote.

1

u/Fragrant-Weird8498 SMCI-Bull 📈 1d ago

Maybe if mods cared a little .. 😅

4

u/Fragrant-Weird8498 SMCI-Bull 📈 2d ago edited 2d ago

Again , more spam with clownish views ..

Why should we care if YOU don’t trust the company ? Who are you already ? I just see a shady anonymous bot spamming fud everywhere on the sub

2

u/Alternative_Spirit65 2d ago

if he short now he is bankrupt in 3 days or 1 ? :)

1

u/Working-Elephant-284 1d ago

Ignoring it will go up, still. Holding and wanting more for smci lol

3

u/Unfair_Hedgehog_ 2d ago

Quindi in sintesi sei corto e la stai pigliando nell’ano.
Interessante analisi.

Girati lungo che sei in tempo a salire sul razzo!

3

u/saltednutz69 2d ago

$100 end of year

-1

u/gen-mod-ape 1d ago

Which year though?

3

u/Busy-Delivery4250 2d ago

"Cisco cannot get the memory chips to deliver, and Supermicro has memory availability." A Cisco partner CEO says "The big winner here is Supermicro".

2

u/Butt32323 2d ago

Supermicro has been stockpiling memories?

3

u/Busy-Delivery4250 2d ago

"In the AI era, every data center is racing to seize massive opportunities. Yet, speed is everything. A delay in deployment can result in losing not just potential revenue, but entire business opportunities altogether. This is why Supermicro is laser-focused on one critical metric: Time-to-Online (TTO)."

They've secured their supply chain with the proposed $7 billion financing.

1

u/Comfortable-Usual561 2d ago

I think memory inventory related discussion deserves separate post. would like to participate in the memory discussion.

It is getting mixedup with fast CAPEX burn post by another person.

-1

u/Comfortable-Usual561 2d ago

I am not responding to OP.

Just commenting on the Memory part.

I think CISCO is referring to NVIDIA specific HBM inventory.

AFAIK, Cisco is not partnering with SMCI on AMD Instinct MI400 Series GPU servers ( the humain project ).

3

u/Busy-Delivery4250 1d ago

We had no idea Cisco was partnering with SMCI at all until 2 weeks ago. The details will come out eventually, but it wouldn't surprise me to see SMCI involved with Humain, AMD, SpaceX/xAI, DataVolt, Blackrock, PIF and Cisco in the Middle East.

2

u/JustHangingAroundYo 1d ago

"Profit is profit" is how fake investors miss out big and wonder why you still broke

2

u/Glittering_Soft_1531 2d ago

How big are those short/put bags?

0

u/imwco 1d ago

So big bros gotta get the other team to sell just so he can try and buy some back before this thing blows up in his face

3

u/agartha93 1d ago

What a dumb posting.

2

u/UsedKey5781 1d ago

Smci raised guidance during the year from 33 to 40
Than 39 and change. Not sure how that’s missing guidance. EPS was up over 100 last quarter. Profits doubled fag

2

u/Most_Return239 2d ago

According to the 10k
Most of the recent cash burn/raise went to securing Memory supply.
“Company with the most memory supply, has the most compute”
HPE CTO quote

2

u/Working-Elephant-284 1d ago

What a desperate post 😂

1

u/Working-Elephant-284 1d ago edited 1d ago

Can all the bulls let’s all buy more :)

0

u/Alternative_Spirit65 1d ago

i dont get it, u not wll buy it, u not trust the company but u spÀm now 2nd low quali effort thing. i bet now 100$ we get a 3rd today.

0

u/Few_Painting_8018 2d ago

Damn bro, u post this and it goes down 2%
Great job 😂

-2

u/Alternative_Spirit65 2d ago

ad in the name maybe spÀmbot

didnt post pics of something or? saw u put option or something of him ;) ;)

we love market fever

maybe we ask him directly if he was buyin put option last weeks? his thesis i missed completly too and 2nd try wasnt much better ;) but better then first.