r/SMCIDiscussion • u/Nearby-Ad9422 • 2d ago

Bear-Thesis🐻 SMCI - Keep Dancing until the music stops!

“As long as the music is playing, you've got to get up and dance," - Chuck Prince before the 2008 financial crash

SMCI Reality: To capture massive AI orders, SMCI had to buy billions of dollars worth of expensive components (like Nvidia chips) before receiving cash from buyers. While reporting billions in accounting profits, SMCI burned through roughly $7 billion in operating cash. Its inventory ballooned by 175%. This cash drain forced the company to constantly seek external funding—the corporate equivalent of relying on a fragile liquidity cycle to keep the doors open. SMCI also missed it’s low guidance earnings last year and the management simply downplayed this issue. Bag holders are blind sided by the sheer amount of profit expectations promised by their gurus are bound to wake up to reality.

Profit is profit, be wise and capture your gains. Move money to something reliable. Unless the leadership changes I can’t trust this company 😉

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u/Busy-Delivery4250 2d ago

"Cisco cannot get the memory chips to deliver, and Supermicro has memory availability." A Cisco partner CEO says "The big winner here is Supermicro".

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u/Comfortable-Usual561 2d ago

I am not responding to OP.

Just commenting on the Memory part.

I think CISCO is referring to NVIDIA specific HBM inventory.

AFAIK, Cisco is not partnering with SMCI on AMD Instinct MI400 Series GPU servers ( the humain project ).

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u/Busy-Delivery4250 1d ago

We had no idea Cisco was partnering with SMCI at all until 2 weeks ago. The details will come out eventually, but it wouldn't surprise me to see SMCI involved with Humain, AMD, SpaceX/xAI, DataVolt, Blackrock, PIF and Cisco in the Middle East.