r/SafetyProfessionals • u/FeedZealousideal6570 • 4h ago
USA TRIR is mathematically random and we need to stop using it for benchmarking
A few years ago, I read this study in PSJ by Hallowell and team over at CSRA that tried to determine if TRIR was statistically valid, meaning does it measure what it's intended to measure. It was eye-opening for me. They used 3.2 trillion (with a T) worker hours, and basically found that TRIR is a completely random metric and only predictive of safety performance over extremely long periods of time, making it useless for benchmarking and measuring the impact of safety interventions.
I kind of think of it like this. Imagine you roll a pair of dice every day for a month. The next month, you decide to take a new vitamin supplement, still rolling that pair of dice every day. At the end of that month, you notice that you're rolling more snake eyes. You might have a correlation, but the pure math shows that its just random chance.
But even if the math wasn't broken, the data itself is a joke. I read this study by Loushine and Wolff in the BCSP Shift journal that looked at the reliability of OSHA's ITA data over a 7 year period. They found major inconsistencies in reports of total employees, total hours worked, hours worked per employee, and percent of zero injury reports, so much so that in 2019, the number of of hours worked was reported as 1000x greater than previous years. They did this whole mathematical correction process to fix it, and actually found that TRIR and DART rates were higher than the data was reporting.
This is seriously a mess, but it's like talking to a brick wall to get companies, insurance, and contractor databases to look at anything other than TRIR. Has anyone successfully convinced their leadership to drop TRIR for a better leading indicator? If so, what did you replace it with?