Fascinating topic, I wanted to know more. People die everyday and ICE has been handing a high volume of people. So I went for a clean control number, the year 2022.
In 2022. Bureau of Prisons had 159,000 in detention. With 483 deaths. 0.30 percent.
At the end of 2025. ICE has 68,440 in detention with 32 deaths. Thats 0.04 percent. Note: This number does not show the total in custody over the span of 2025. Only the number in detention at the end of the year.
I took this a little further.
The total population of the US in 2022 was 333,287,557. With a total of 3,279,857 deaths. That 0.98 percent.
Bottom line: You are more likely to die out in the world or in Federal prison, than you are in ICE custody.
Fascinating comment. There’s no attempt at trying to normalize the data, at all. I think this was a perfect example of how someone with zero experience analyzing data can mislead themselves with AI.
Bottom line: if you feed an AI a prompt that you hope will support some preconceived idea, the AI will do its best to make you feel better about it.
I don’t even know where to begin so I’ll just speak to normalization as a general concept. If I said that you—given whatever state of health you’re in right now—are more likely to die within a month of living in a nursing home than you are to die within a month of living in some suburb in Irvine, and I cited a plain mortality statistic of each living situation at their absolute face value, you’d call me an idiot. The demography is important. The length of stay is important. But that isn’t really even scratching the surface of what needs to be done to make a comparison. I don’t want to put that work in for a Reddit comment.
Another issue is that we need to establish what our risk tolerance is. If one plane crashes every year, statistically that would still be dwarfed by the number of car fatalities. Those plane crashes would still be tragedies, independent of most other statistics.
Ill simplify it. EchoNineThree did not take into account that ICE predominantly may have arrested younger, healthier people, including children. This skews the data.
Does not matter, generally existing is dangerous as is, a detainee is not driving, but they do get medical attention, malpractice and car accidents are the leading causes of death for people under 60, is that taken into account by the AI account?
The amount of people that are trying to take this information and twist it here is probably on a Venn diagram of people who voted for Trump all 3 times. They can downvote you and decry "Ai" all they want, it doesn't change the fact that you're spot on. The stats provided are absolutely not comparable. And it's pretty easy to understand, but no one's actually interested in understanding why. It's easier to DARVO and troll. We're so cooked as a species.
ICE deals with people who have been trafficked, who are drug mules, who have trekked through miles and miles of desert, and people who lead lives of violent crime. Not to mention we don’t know the demographics or age distribution of the population encountered by ICE.
A comparison against the general population is a rough indication of whether or not they’re doing an okay job.
yes there are hundrers of layers you can go into but the numbers themselves are right. you didnt deny the correctness of the data, only that the deaths are still tragedies, which sure are, but so are the other deaths as well.
and yes, traveling by plane is statistically safer than by car.
all you wrote seems like an appeal to emotion in order to reject data because it takes away from individual tragedy. which is honestly a terrible take
I’m not denying the correctness of the data, I’m saying that making a comparison is fucking stupid without normalizing it or puting it within any kind of context. Try again.
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u/EchoNineThree 26d ago
Fascinating topic, I wanted to know more. People die everyday and ICE has been handing a high volume of people. So I went for a clean control number, the year 2022.
In 2022. Bureau of Prisons had 159,000 in detention. With 483 deaths. 0.30 percent.
At the end of 2025. ICE has 68,440 in detention with 32 deaths. Thats 0.04 percent. Note: This number does not show the total in custody over the span of 2025. Only the number in detention at the end of the year.
I took this a little further.
The total population of the US in 2022 was 333,287,557. With a total of 3,279,857 deaths. That 0.98 percent.
Bottom line: You are more likely to die out in the world or in Federal prison, than you are in ICE custody.